Derby Trail Forums - 5/10: Belmont Park (7th-10th); Santa Anita (6th-9th)

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Hard read given that Mr. Jenney, Stableford and Make a Decision are all making seasonal debuts off 6-9 month breaks. 2-1 fave Edison needed 100 days himself after MDN win in January, was in KY with Pletcher string from mid-April and will have to improve to win. Iron Power and Giant Finish raced through the winter and have likely fitness edge here. Sciacca has been bifing time with Giant Finish wanting to get him on the grass since watching him work after move to barn. Sinistra is solid state-bred ALW type but an unknown on grass with very little to suggest he'll take to it. Female family has no lawn positives while sire Stonesider's progeny 0/33 first time turf and just 9% thereafter..

Most Likely: #4 Mr. Jenney 5-2 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #3 Giant Finish 15-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Iron Power 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Make a Decision 5-1 5th

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Nice group. Would love to reach for Rice's Erik the Red at 8-1 but not sure there's enough pace involved to get him up..

Most Likely: #8 Eastwood 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #1e Jacobson entry 5-2 WON ($7.20)/7th
Best Value: #4 Erik the Red 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Confrontation 6-1 2nd

9th: 60th Peter Pan (G2), 3yo, 9f (DD)

Fabulous Kid will be on a loose lead in this traditional Belmont S. prep and Rosario will have to be sure to stay close enough on Tonalist to reel him in. The question is whether Fabulous Kid can stay on to fend off the Matterhorn, Our Caravan, Commissioner, Irish You Well and even Tapicero..

Most Likely: #4 Tonalist 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #7 Irish You Well 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Fabulous Kid 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Matterhorn 6-1 4th

10th: MSW, 3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #7 Hurricane Turn 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #16 Distant Thoughts 12-1 7th
Next Best: #14 Better Man 5-1 3rd
Exotic Use: #4 Lord Trondor 3-1 4th

<$60 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 3,4 with 8 with 4 with 7 - $2.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7,9 with 8 with 4 with 7 - $1.50
3 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 1,4,5,10 with 4 with 7 - $4.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 8 with 1,2,6,7 with 7 - $4.00
5 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 8 with 4 with 16 - $1.00

A's with Two B's

6 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7,9 with 1,4,5,10 with 4 with 7 - $6.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7,9 with 8 with 1,2,6,7 with 7 - $6.00
8 $0.50 pick P4: 2,7,9 with 8 with 4 with 16 - $1.50
9 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 1,4,5,10 with 1,2,6,7 with 7 - $16.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 1,4,5,10 with 4 with 16 - $4.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 8 with 1,2,6,7 with 16 - $4.00

A's with One C

12 $0.50 pick P4: 6 with 8 with 4 with 7 - $0.50
13 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 8 with 3,5 with 7 - $2.00
14 $0.50 pick P4: 3,4 with 8 with 4 with 4,14,15 - $3.00

Total: $55.50

SANTA ANITA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Toppers Sunshine's 2 wins at 7.5 in AZ bode well for her prospects down the hill. 6-1 works and trip off Kerrilynn's hip should too..

Best Value: #4 Toppers Sunshine 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Kerrilynn 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Heat Du Jour 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Creditcardroulette 9-2 6th

7th: 20th Laz Barrera (G3), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Excellent set here and I'll reach back to Top Fortitude, the Uh Oh Bango brother that debuted smashingly at HOL at 2 but stubbed toe in 3yo debut last month off 5 month break. Came out of the ALW with Ferocious and Chelios and bulleted and draws perfectly to survey speed inside..

Best Value: #7 Top Fortitude 6-1 WON ($62.20)
Next Best: #3 Kobe's Back 9-5 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Ferocious 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Chelios 4-1 7th

8th: Cal-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f-T (DD)

Best Value: #3 Sunset Skies 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Sweet Boss 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Vegas Rules 5-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Yes She's Unusual 6-1 WON ($15.80)

9th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #5 Classy Ava 7-2 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #7 See Through GATE SCR
Next Best: #11 Enchanted Fortune 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Wasted at Midnight 8-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #1 Southern Sunshine 9-2 4th

<$60 P4 Play:

All A Entries

1 $1.00 pick P4: 4 with 3,7 with 1,3 with 5 -$4.00

A's with One B

2 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3 with 3,7 with 1,3 with 5 - $4.00
3 $0.50 pick P4: 4 with 3,7 with 4,8 with 5 - $2.00
4 $0.50 pick P4: 4 with 3,7 with 1,3 with 1,7,8,11 - $8.00

A's with Two B's

5 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3 with 3,7 with 4,8 with 5 - $4.00
6 $0.50 pick P4: 2,3 with 3,7 with 1,3 with 1,7,8,11 - $16.00
7 $0.50 pick P4: 4 with 3,7 with 4,8 with 1,7,8,11 - $8.00

A's with One C

8 $0.50 pick P4: 8 with 3,7 with 1,3 with 5 - $2.00
9 $0.50 pick P4: 4 with 1,2,4,5 with 1,3 with 5 - $4.00
10 $0.50 pick P4: 4 with 3,7 with 5,7 with 5 - $2.00
11 $0.50 pick P4: 4 with 3,7 with 1,3 with 2,3 - $4.00

Total: $58.00

Good luck!
Steve