Derby Trail Forums - 11/23: AQU (6th-9th); DeD (4th-7th); HOL ($40k C/O)

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 7th NYSS-Staten Island, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Vicki's Dancer 5-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #1 Kelli Got Frosty 3-1 4th
Best Value: #4 P J's Superego 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Familyofroses 12-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (3-7) Paid $67.50
$1 Trifecta (3-7-4) Paid $453.00
$1 Superfecta (3-7-4-1) Paid $1,401.00

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

As discussed with Nick Tammaro Friday on ATR, Bakken may have tons of upside, but this is a field of tough, experienced runners that could come at him in waves. He may be special, but will have to prove it..

Most Likely: #9 Bakken 1-1 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #1 Sokitumi Samurai 12-1 8th
Next Best: #11 Truth Is 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Crackerjack Jones 10-1 5th

8th: 7th NYSS-Thunder Rumble, 3+, 7f (DD)

Significant SCR's here as Smooth Bert & Ultimate Empire both come out..

Most Likely: #2 Chapman 7-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Readbytheline 8-1 8th
Next Best: #3 West Hills Giant 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Commandante 5-1 WON ($9.30)

9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f

Pace edge for 'Easterbaby'..

Most Likely: #4 My Pink Easterbaby 7-2 12th
Best Value: #11 Inspeightofthegold 12-1 6th
Next Best: #12 Fiftyfour Forever 9-2 11th
Exotics Use: #3 Seven Dreams 8-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3
7: 1-9-11
8: 2-3-4-8-10
9: 3-4-11-12

2x3x5x4 = 120 x .50 = $60

DELTA DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

Delta strip never moved off of fast designation last night and 50% chance of rain remains in place today. 'Sabine Sand' surface takes moisture and dries well, but being on or near the lead seems imperative here no matter what the condition..

4th: 9th Sam's Town-R, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Black Bear 5-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Request a Puck 12-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Heitai 2-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 One Man's King 12-1 4th

5th: 11 Delta Mile, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Alsvid 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Agent Di Nozzo 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Grand Contender 8-1 WON ($23.60)
Super Add: #3 Uncaptured 7-2 3rd

6th: 11th Delta Princess (G3), 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

For austerity purposes in the P4, will hope one of the two pacesetters stays on..

Most Likely: #4 Bahnah 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Miss Behaviour 2-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Appreciating 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Concave 7-2 3rd

7th: 11th Delta Jackpot (G3), 2yo, 1m (P5, P3, DD)

As discussed on ATR this week, Calder runners notoriously successful over this track and Casiguapo held own facing top juvies in Hopeful/Champagne..

Most Likely: #8 Casiguapo 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Rise Up 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #7 Rankhasprivileges 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Coastline 5-2 6th

<$50 P4 Play:

4: 2-5-9
5: 1-2-4
6: 3-4
7: 2-4-7-8-10

3x3x2x5 = 90 x .50 = $45

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MCLM/$30k, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #9 Another Victoria 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Tiz Bliss 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Mini Candy 3-1 9th
Exotics Use: #3 U R Lucky 15-1 4th

5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Depreciable 7-2 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #8 Romeo Royale 6-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Husband's Folly 9-2 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Major Magic 4-1 7th

6th: MCLM/$50k, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Note that Nancy Wake in 4th is a bit of a referendum on the race #10 A P Pepper exits..

Best Value: #3 Pretty Storm 9-2 5th
Next Best: #7 La Casadora 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #6 D'ya Knowwhatimean 8-1 WON ($14.20)
Super Add: #8 Browsing 5-1 2nd

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-T (P3, DD)

SCR 7-11-12-14 which gets 13-15 in to event..

Best Value: #1 Sweet as a Rose 10-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Salsita 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Lust for Life 15-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Famous Alice 4-1 WON ($5.20)

8th: 8th Real Quiet, 2yo, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #8 Beach Hut 7-2 7th
Best Value: #2 Electric Eddie 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Life Is a Joy 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Green Mask 3-1 3rd

9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Afflication 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Whipstock 5-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Red Sharp Humor 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Bobby Handy 5-1 6th
Super/Hi-5: #10 Barney Rebel 20-1 8th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 2-9
5: 7
6: 3-6-7
7: 1-4-8
8: 8
9: 3-4-6-8

2x1x3x3x1x4 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-6-7
7: 1-2-4-8
8: 2-8
9: 3-4-6-8

3x4x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

Good luck!
Steve