Derby Trail Forums - 8/26: Saratoga (Day 34-Saratoga Dew)

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

NOTE: THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON

1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Really fun group with potential for some boxcar numbers. Take shots because literally ANY combination of the 9 can finish 1-2-3-4..

Most Likely: #8 Happy My Way 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Awed 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Tripski 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Spring to the Sky 5-1 WON ($4.40)

2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Doesn't feel like an especially emergent group..

Most Likely: #2 Fingers Crossed 3-1 5th
Next Best: #6 U.S.S. O'Brien 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Domino Derval 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #5 Ocean Boulevard 5-1 WON ($13.40)

3rd: OC/S-ALW, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Gnarley Girl 4-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Ol Donyo 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Elusive Act 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Heart of Rome 5-1 6th

4th: Smart and Fancy, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Interesting 50/50 group with half on/near pace, half off. Madame Giry may be ready to run 'A' race 3rd off layoff and Lion Down by Me could get sweet ground-saver to provide Luz dime-offer..

Best Value: #1 Lion Down by Me 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Madame Giry 5-2 WON ($4.30)
Exotics Use: #6 Sweet and Lovely 5-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Jan's Perfect Star 6-1 4th

5th: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Well-matched set with horses going in all different directions..

Best Value: #5 Sir Leslie 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Bedouin Now 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #10 So Outspoken 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Amber Coast 4-1 WON ($8.00)

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-4-6
3: 2-4-5-6
4: 1-8
5: 3-5-7-10

3x4x1x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

6th: MCLM/$50k, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)

Sneaky Blowout is horse to beat, yes, but is he a 3-5 horse to beat? Cuts back and gets hood. Catholic Cowboy a fun price to use having faced some nice ones and curling back towards a big effort. Firster Tex Alex is working nicely for bow..

Most Likely: #5 Sneaky Blowout 3-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Catholic Cowboy 12-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Tax Alex 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Team Lazarus 5-1 6th

7th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Another fun group with some value players to work around..

Best Value: #3 Scotus 15-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Plainview 2-1 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #1 Compliance Officer 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #9 Political Courage 12-1 6th

8th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #4 Belief System 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Drum Roll 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Fly Bye Pomeroy 10-1 4th

9th: 10th Saratoga Dew-NY, F&M-3+, 9f (DD)

Mischief Maker should prove tough to catch, especially if it comes up wet. Can't blame Friedman for taking a shot back on dirt with Dreaming of Cara..

Most Likely: #3 Mischief Maker 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Lady On the Run 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Dreaming of Cara 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Tahoe Tigress 3-1 5th

10th: MCLM/$25k, F&M-3+, 1m-IT

Most Likely: #1 Spunky Princess 5-1 WON ($9.10)
Best Value: #9 Bargaining Table 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Coralita 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 East Coast Express 10-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5
8: 4-5-8
9: 1-3-4-5-6-7
10: 1-3-6-9

2x3x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve