4/25: Keeneland (5th-9th)
 

Have not had much chance to dig in at Keeneland this spring, but heading there this afternoon for nice feature as meet draws towards its' conclusion..


KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: S/ALW, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Deep starter group of soph fillies. May need nearly half of them to get through first leg of the quintet..

Most Likely: #9 Excessiveness 3-1 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #6 Electro Peg 6-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Exotic Mischief 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 The Business 8-1 2nd


6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Discussed this heat with LoPresti Tuesday with his Mingun mare Gunforhome returning as a 5yo. Well matched group where separating those with upside from career wheel-spinners is the key. For instance, has the light come on for Flower Mart?

Most Likely: #6 Prissy 7-2 WON ($7.80)
Next Best: #3 Flower Mart 5-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Cry War Eagle 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #8 North by Northlite 4-1 2nd


7th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Ooof.. What to make of these? Key to the late PX's with firsters and second timers making it nearly impossible to take a hold with confidence. When Shug starts them at 6f, he's getting in a start. When he opens them at 7f, they generally run well. Developer added a blowout oover the strip Wednesday and at 8-1 he's worth keying up and down..

Most Likely: #5 Developer 8-1 WON ($26.00)
Next Best: #11 Coaches Favorite 6-1 8th
Best Value: #2 Leadem in Ken 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Wind of Bosphorus 3-1 5th


8th: 52nd Bewitch (G3), F&M-4+, 12f-T (DD)

Predictably nice set..

Most Likely: #8 Scampering 9-2 7th
Best Value: #4 Alaura Michele 15-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Regalo Mia 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Gathering 3-1 9th
Super Add: #2 Kissable 6-1 4th


9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f (Super Hi-5)

Hard to argue with viability of 6-5 Ramsey entry (Ward/Maker), but there are a few here well within range at attractive numbers. Not so cut & dry despite dominance of the record-smashing meet leaders..

Most Likely: #1e Ramsey entry 6-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #4 Arch of Titus 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Responsive Eye 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Zane 6-1 2nd
Hi-5 Play: #10 Impetuous Power 15-1 5th

$1 Super High Five (1-2-4-5-10) $1,212.60


<$50 P5 Play:

5: 6-9-11
6: 1-3-6-8
7: 5
8: 2-4-5-8-9
9: 1-4

3x4x1x5x2 = 120 x .50 = $60

$0.50 Pick 5 (1/7/9/10-6-5-11-1/8) $16.70 x 5 = $83.50 (4 correct)


<$100 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-6-8
7: 2-5-11
8: 2-4-5-8-9
9: 1-4-5

4x3x5x3 = 180 x .50 = $90


Good luck!
Steve

My form just purchased online does show Developer with a drill over the strip - YESTERDAY! A 3 furlong bullet. Not sure what to make of that, but definitely interesting. I expected to see him in the early scratches, but he was not included.

Printed my PP's the other day... Love hearing that!

Steve, what did Lopresti say about Gunforhome? Thought she was interesting at a bit of a price.

I am against Flower Mart personally, think with Leparoux up she will be taken back and left with too much to do against a pace that looks tepid to me.

He said she was a dog and was hurt late last year.. They are looking to get her in to run second in a overnight stake is Indiana so she has some black type when they off her in the Nov sale..lol

Actually that is only half true.. The good half is she is healthy the bad half is they dont think much of her(as a race horse) if they are pointing for cheap stake at Scioto Downs lol

He hadn't seen the field but was worried entering that the group would be too rich for her. She can contend with any progress but needs real improvement to win it appears. I think she's 5th best in the pecking order. First time through I liked North by Northlite but then had to acquiesce to Prissy, Cry War Eagle & Flower Mart...

Good race and fun sequence. Headed there shortly after a big show. BOL today!

Thanks, Steve! That will help my ticket. I think Prissy is the horse to beat there and I have North by Northlite as an A as well. May try to get through that with just the two of them. I like Arch of Titus in the last at a price as well, could go right down the road. I am not fully sold on the entry there at what will likely be an underlayed price.

Competitive race to begin the p5, fwiw I also had the same top 4 horses. (B) horses include 2-3-8

good luck Steve

In the days when horses weren't babied as much it used to be quite common to blow one out the day before to get them on their toes. Shug doesn't often win with firsters(4%) according to Brisnet but this one may be ok. Key is to watch the board because rare for his firsters to take money.

A 12 -1 single....wow.....great job Steve

Beauty call on Developer Steve :$:

#5 Developer 8-1
Nice Byk 12-1

Great job, Steve! And to single Developer, masterful! :tro:

Great call Steve. Old time trainer using the old time training methods. Bring home all the multis now.

Great Job on Developer Steve!

Wow Steve! thanks for pointing out the 4 in the finale! Helped me nap that super high 5! Helps the derby bankroll :$::$:

We have been discussing how outrageous that ride on the 4 was in the last in the selections thread. Totally mind boggling, sure appeared that he misjudged the line. But that wasn't the only problem with that ride.

No kidding. Based on exacta will pays that was about a 4x multiplier mistake.

dino, tabs, DJARUM, Nick, ADJMK, Jim, Dan, Dave..

Thanks a lot guys.. The Shug came to the plate looking like the proverbial beach ball. Delighted it worked out and disappointed not to figure out the Bewitch.

And Dan, glad to help with Arch of Titus in the Hi-5. I thought getting Impetuous Power was key to the thing too having just run and it being Dorochenko.