Derby Trail Forums - 3/23: Gulfstream (6th-11th); Turfway (7th-10th); Santa Anita ($192k C/O)

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m-T/36' (P6, P3, DD)

$1,120,613 Jackpot Rainbow 6 starts here..

Wide open start to the 6..

Best Value: #10 Sweet Kate 10-1 10th
Next Best: #6 Secret Jewel 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Bella Castani 20-1 WON ($8.80)
Super Add: #9 Vita Vittoria 4-1 8th

7th: MDN CLM ($25k), 3yo-F, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Pearl de Vere 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 One Tough Cowgirl 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Kind of Wonderful 12-1 10th
Super Add: #6 Music N Songs 4-1 4th

8th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T/36' (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Regatta 6-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Street Secret 7-2 WON ($7.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Sure Route 6-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Dame Marie 8-1 4th

9th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Affair 3-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Poised to a Tee 4-1 WON ($10.60)
Best Value: #7 Anillo 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Prima Zip 6-1 4th

10th: 54th Pan American (F2), 4+, 12f-T/96' (DD)

Interesting lineup for this with no shortage of pace factors in Teaks North, Ioya Bigtime, Twilight Eclipse and perhaps Belo Acteon. As discussed with Mike Welsch yesterday, I'm looking to get the roulette peg to frop into the slot of hard-trying Empire Builder. May be over-matched but we'll get paid if right..

Best Value: #8 Empire Builder 15-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Newsdad 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Mucho Mas Macho 5-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Ioya Bigtime 6-1 2nd

11th: MDN CLM ($35k), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T/36' (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Snit Fit 7-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Ceci N Red 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Next Best: #3 Lovely Dynaformer 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Ely Runner 20-1 10th

<$30 P6 Play:

6: 6-7-9-10
7: 1-5-8
8: 6-7
9: 2-7-10
10: 8-10
11: 1-2

4x3x2x3x2x2 = 288 x .10 = $28.80

<$50 P5 Play:

7: 1-5-8
8: 6-7
9: 1-2-7-10
10: 8-10
11: 1-2

3x2x4x2x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-6-7-8
9: 1-2-7-10
10: 4-8-10
11: 1-2-3

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

TURFWAY PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P5, P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Impassable Canyon 7-2 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #2 Sir Squire 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #12 Mal Guapo 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Holy Moses 10-1 5th

8th: Rushaway, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Red Wings 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Crop Report 4-1 WON ($3.20)
Exotics Use: #5 J. J. Got Even 8-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Divine Ambition 9-2 2nd

9th: Bourbonette Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD)

Tremendous betting race with Pure Fun guaranteed to be a crazy underlay..

Most Likely: #12 Awesome Mama 12-1 8th
Best Value: #1 Street of Gold 30-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Pure Fun 7-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Miss Squeal 15-1 5th

10th: Spiral (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Another bet-against opportunity with high profile players ML choices Balance the Books (7-2), Uncaptured (3-1) & Capo Bastone (9-2) sure to draw too much money. My Name is Michael (10-1), Mac the Man (10-1), General Election (12-1) & Giant Finish (15-1) are all as likely here as the favored set..

Most Likely: #5 My Name is Michael 10-1 8th
Best Value: #8 General Election 12-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Mac the Man 10-1 12th
Exotics Use: #1 Balance the Books 7-2 11th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-6
8: 1-5-9
9: 1-3-5-10-12
10: 1-4-5-7-8

2x3x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

SANTA ANITA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: S/ALW, 3+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$192k Double P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #4 Baby Blake 2-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #2 Cloud Top 4-1 (B) 5th
Exotics Use: #1 My Samurai Warrior 5-2 (B) WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #3 Crimson Giant 8-1 (C) 6th

5th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Outstanding looking cast for this early spring 3yo Maiden test. Pure Loyalty (ran into Governor Charlie & Treasury Bill), Zee Bros (2nd to Salutos Amigos) and the trio of Airfoil, Tenkiller Kid & Master Appeal (behind Summer Exclusive) all have bona fides here. Baffert firster Declassify has to contend with tricky post for seven-eigths, but is working beautifully and appears well meant. Unusual to get such a superb assembly with so much upside at this point in the season..

Most Likely: #8 Zee Bros 9-5 (A) WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #7 Master Appeal 3-1 (A) 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Pure Loyalty 4-1 (B) 3rd
Super Add: #6 Tenkiller Kid 6-1 (C) 5th

6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Charm Catcher 5-2 (A) 4th
Next Best: #2 Wednesday 3-1 (A) WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #5 Devious Chic 6-1 (B) 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Dance Team 3-1 (C) 2nd

7th: 15th Tokyo City (G3), 4+, 12f (P3, DD)

Tricky rendition of this marathon..

Best Value: #2 Sky Kingdom 9-2 (A) WON ($12.20)
Next Best: #6 Calidoscopio 7-2 (B) 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Dhaamer 5-2 (B) 5th

"C's": #4 Oilisblackgold 7-2 2nd; #5 Richard's Kid 9-2 3rd (C)

8th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f-T (DD)

Hard to argue with remarkable late bloomer Mr. Bossy Pants (2-1), but there are another 3-4 here that are within striking distance and enough pace types to keep the favorite honest..

Best Value: #6 Atticus Jack 6-1 (A) 2nd
Next Best: #8 Mr. Bossy Pants 2-1 (A) 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Drift King 4-1 (C) WON ($8.20)
Super Add: #4 Lamm 4-1 (C) 6th

9th: MDN CLM ($30k), 3yo-F, 6f (Super Hi-5)

$28,825 Super Hi-5 C/O here..

Tricky ending to sequences but Top Tizzy looks prime making dirt bow in this spot in first try for highly capable conditioner in Kory Owens..

Best Value: #7 TOP TIZZY 8-1 (A) 5th
Next Best: #1 Jawbreaker 3-1 (B) WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #9 Going Back to Cali 5-2 (C) 3rd
Super Add: #6 Jiggin' With M K R 5-1 (C) 7th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-2-4
5: 7-8
6: 2-6
7: 2-6-8
8: 6-8
9: 7

3x2x2x3x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-6
7: 2-4-5-6-8
8: 6-8
9: 1-5-6-7-9

3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

Good luck!
Steve