Derby Trail Forums - 11/16: Churchill Downs (6th-10th); Hollywood Park (1st-5th)

Got roughed up at Churchill Thursday reaching for too many prices that fell short (Witty Gal, Bold Tap) and missing the ones that came through ($21 Flashy Rae, $37 Chief's Revenge)! The sequences were well worth trying though as the P5 returned $15,400 and the late quad $1,950. Another nice Downs sequence this afternoon and Hollywood P5 includes the debut of the Zenyatta sister Eblouissante in the 4th (5:02pm ET)..

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD)

Race features debut of #10 Top Priority (15-1) full brother of Tiz Miz Sue..

Most Likely: #8 Bemata 2-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Rap d'Oro 12-1 10th
Next Best: #2 D Y N for a Star 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Ruble 8-1 2nd

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Happy to give Original Art, now with Grant Forster, the chance returning to dirt after polytrack non-effort last time..

Best Value: #8 Original Art 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Classy Cove 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Forest Station 10-1 9th
Super Add: #1 Seeker 5-2 3rd

8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

#3 Catbird Seat (6-1) is half to Gemologist and gets to organic main in 2nd start after useful debut. #5 Speed Date is half to MGSW Eye of the Tiger and Jim Corrigan usually has them ready to run..

Most Likely: #3 Catbird Seat 6-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Speed Date 12-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Irish Lute 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #12 Moonrite 12-1 5th

9th: OC/C, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Curious assembly..

Best Value: #6 Dimension 12-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Strike Impact 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Grand Berry 15-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Noble's Promise 3-1 2nd

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (Super Hi-5)

Rough looking set. #1 Street Dreams (8-5) give away highly suspicious..

Best Value: #7 Special Gift 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Street Dreams 8-5 11th
Exotics Use: #12 Stormylittlerosey 3-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Red Banks Reality 10-1 10th

<$75 P5 Play:

6: 2-8-9
7: 3-8
8: 3-5-7
9: 2-3-4-6
10: 1-7

3x2x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-8
8: 3-5-7-12
9: 2-3-4-6
10: 1-7-12

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N3X, 3+, 6f-T (P5, P3, DD)

Short but serious group. Nice to see Willyconker back..

Most Likely: #2 Circa'sgoldengear 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Willyconker 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Ain't No other 5-2 WON ($8.20)

2nd: CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Bruno's Wager 6-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Privilaged 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Arresting Officer 6-1 WON ($20.00)
Super Add: #8 SCR

3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #13 I Cee's a Tiger 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Princess Suances 9-2 10th
Exotics Use: #7 Single N Lovin It 8-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Warren's Passion 8-1 3rd

4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Zenyatta half sis Eblouissante worked 45 times leading up to today's debut. Every indication is that she has talent but is big and slightly lumbering. Finally showed some speed in last drill and will have to use it to stay close enough for late bid. Will certainly be overbet..

Most Likely: #8 Playful Humor 7-2 7th
Next Best: #4 Chestnut Moon 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Eblouissante 4-1 WON ($4.80)
Super Add: #5 Belonging 3-1 4th

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Awkward Mondays 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Bling Cha Bling 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Omar 5-1 WON ($29.00)
Super Add: #3 Bold Agressor 8-1 6th

<$75 P5 & <$50 P4 Plays:

1: 2-4-5
2: 5-6
3: 1-7-11-13
4: 3-4-8
5: 2-10 (1-3)

P5: 3x2x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72
P4: 2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

Good luck!
Steve