Derby Trail Forums - 11/11: Aqueduct ($29k C/O); Hollywood ($116k C/O)

Parades of big priced winners set off fireworks at Aqueduct and Hollywood Saturday with so many tough to pin horses that carryovers were in place before the late doubles at both venues! Some of the upsetters felt impossible, while a few were plausable and then some. Firster Vyjack kicked off the New York P6 sequence at 18-1, but the Into Mischief gelding was noted as a half to Neil Howard's Prime Cut who was fast early too. Discreet Lady ended the Big A sextet and was crazily overlaid at 23-1 dropping down to $15k and showing the maiden win 2 back that was in range versus the group. At Inglewood, venerable Dance With Gable ($25.00) and eye-crossing Why Not Be Perfect ($91.60) kayoed sextet punters. Was a long afternoon overall, but both Sunday sequences offer redeeming opportunities with $116k in the HollyPark pot and $29k to start the bidding at Ozone Park.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$29k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #6 Superstitious Love 5-2 WON ($6.30)
Next Best: #7 Kiki Chacer 7-2 6th
Best Value: #4 White Glove 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Karma Police 12-1 2nd

5th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (G/S, P3, DD)

Don't know if this coming off theturf makes it any easier to decipher..

Most Likely: #15 Town Extension 7-2 5th
Best Value: #2 Gentleman's Honor 12-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Unitarian 10-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Black Onyx 12-1 WON ($30.40)

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Frivolity 2-1 WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #8 Dissension 6-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Girl Code 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Devil's Cave 8-1 5th

7th: NYSS, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Note that Frivolity above has potential to flatter P J's Superego here..

Most Likely: #4 P J's Superego 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Kelli Got Frosty 4-1 WON ($10.60)
Exotics Use: #1 Matchmadeinheaven 3-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Nonni Connie 7-2 3rd

8th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD)

Terriffic, well-matched group..

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Downtown Hottie 4-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Sally's Dream 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Sheza Heartbreaker 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Lady's Lunar Luck 15-1 WON ($19.60)

9th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f

Most Likely: #4 Leilani's Ticket 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #7 Shadon 12-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Readthesmokesignal 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Cajun Best 30-1 9th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 6-7
5: 2-15
6: 7-8
7: 1-3-4
8: 1-3-8
9: 4

2x2x2x3x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-7-8
7: 1-3-4
8: 1-2-3-8-9-11
9: 4-7

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (5,7/3/11/4) Paid $107.87

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: Cal-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD)

$116k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #6 Always a Chance 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Toomanytomatoes 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Stormin Cee's 4-1 2nd

5th: S/ALW, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Rock Off 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Chicsdigtheshark 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Baby Blake 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 In High Regards 8-1 8th

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Secret Motive 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #10 Topic 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Sharp Bella 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Having Abig Middle 15-1 2nd

7th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Idontrollonshabbos 7-2 5th
Next Best: #7 Run'n On Residuals 3-1 WON ($8.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Rich Kid 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Warren's Dr. Boo 15-1 7th

8th: 7th Sharp Cat, 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Scarlet Strike 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #7 Renee's Titan 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Rhodium 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Wittgenstein 6-1 5th

9th: MDN CLM, D&M-3+, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Valeria 3-1 WON ($11.20)
Best Value: #12 Lily's Tiz 8-1 DH-5th
Next Best: #4 Tiz a Daisy 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 No Mistress 6-1 DH-5th
Hi-5 Play: #16 Can'tbeattheheat 10-1

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 4-6
5: 1-3
6: 1-5-10
7: 4-6-7
8: 1-7
9: 8

2x2x3x3x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-5-10
7: 4-6-7
8: 1-7
9: 4-6-8-12

3x3x2x4 = $72 ($1) or $36 for .50

Good luck!
Steve