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-   -   11/8: Churchill Downs (6th-10th) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=49070)

Kasept 11-08-2012 07:40 AM

11/8: Churchill Downs (6th-10th)
 
CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: ALW/N2L, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD)

Miss Clark County feels as likely as the three obvious faves. Needs to work out a trip but Albarado is OK for that from outside. Storm of Energy (20-1) could get a sweet suck-along trip inside and juice up exotics. Include underneath at the least..

Best Value: #10 Miss Clark County 8-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Always Kitten 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Virtual Image 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 I'm Already Sexy 7-2 WON ($12.00)


7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 Stray Dog 5-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Stormin Bud 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Captain My Captain 6-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Ghost is Clear 3-1 3rd


8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD)

As a big Proud Spell fan, excited to see her first foal run here as Mott sends $500k #1 Indian Spell (5-1) for Ben Leon. Mott not famous for 'first out' wins, but he's had 3 in the last 60 days (10-1; 11-1; 2-1), with ALL coming out at 6.5-7f. Proud Spell herself won at first asking (5f) and this daughter being by Indian Charlie (17% FTS winners) doesn't diminish the interest/appeal. Has to get by clear choice in Flashy Gray. Tri/Super tickets need to include #11 Lil Red Cozette (10-1) 3rd at the bottom for mutuel boost..

Most Likely: #10 Flashy Gray 3-1 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #1 Indian Spell 5-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Beautiful Miss 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Princess Mariah 6-1 2nd


9th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Tough, tricky group..

Most Likely: #5 Globe Trot 5-1 8th
Best Value: #2 Millenia 3-1 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #9 Charming She Is 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #8 Soft Whisper 10-1 6th


10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Merv 5-1 9th
Best Value: #5 Myles 15-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Fort Boonesborough 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Restitution 4-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #12 Cactus Cognac 12th


<$75 P5 Play:

6: 4-6-7-10
7: 1-2-4-7
8: 10
9: 2-5-8-9
10: 2-5

4x4x1x4x2 = 128 x .50 = $64


@$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-4-7-9
8: 1-10
9: 2-5-8-9
10: 1-2-5-9

5x2x4x4 = 160 x .50 = $80


Good luck!
Steve

Kasept 11-08-2012 10:48 AM

CD SCR/CHG'S

Kasept 11-08-2012 06:24 PM

Run of the mill $47k P5 and $10,250 P4 thanks to the $30 and $80 winners..

Hi-5 C/O Friday: $14.7k


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