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-   -   10/18: Santa Anita ($66k C/O) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=48786)

Kasept 10-18-2012 04:05 AM

10/18: Santa Anita ($66k C/O)
 
SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: MDN CLM, 2yo, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

$66k P6 C/O starts here..

Machowsky Cal-bred There Goes Donnie lost all chance early in route debut at FPX last month. Scorched half mile bullet readying for this. Barn in midst of big stand..

Best Value: #5 There Goes Donnie 6-1 (A) WON ($15.40)
Next Best: #6 Pick Six Joe 7-2 (A) 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Kentucky Kid 3-1 (B) 5th
Super Add: #8 Jones Destiny 5-2 (B) 3rd


4th: CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Vann Belvoir in midst of trying meet having lost with first 17 starters. Sends 3rd of 5 on the day in here with Cat'sdoubledaygirl looking to have strong chance to end schneid..

Most Likely: #3 Cat'sdoubledaygirl 3-1 (A) 4th
Next Best: #4 Hyena 2-1 (A) 2nd
Best Value: #1 Divas and Diamonds 6-1 (C) 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Ella Bea Awesome 4-1 (C) 6th


5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Doubledeesonthetee 5-2 (A) 5th
Next Best: #7 Havoc 3-1 (A) WON ($8.40)
Best Value: #9 Somewhere With You 5-1 (B) 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Primed and Ready 7-2 (B) 2nd


<$100 P5/<$50 P4 Plays:

1: 4-6
2: 1-2
3: 5-6-7-8
4: 1-3-4
5: 4-6-7-9

P5: 2x2x4x3x4 = 192 x .50 = $96
P4: 2x4x3x4 = 96 x .50 = $48


6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Luke's Legacy 8-1 (A) 9th
Next Best: #8 Striking Spirit 5-2 (A) 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Apply 4-1 (B) 8th
Super Add: #9 Gold Medallion 6-1 (B) 3rd


7th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD)

Very tricky starter group with about 6 that look capable on best. Lia Juliana (15-1) may be a stab in this spot, but she has a hint of turf pedigree as a half to Renzo Sean and the stretchout to two turns may be fine for her. Taking shot. Should add that Brad Free notes the 3 turf routes at the meet with the rails at 24' have been won from off the pace..

Best Value: #2 Lia Juliana 15-1 (A) 7th
Next Best: #4 Always a Chance 3-1 (A) WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #9 Chimi Dee 5-2 (A) 5th
Super Add: #8 Around the Twig 8-1 (C) 8th


8th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (Super Hi-5)

Disarm could be your single in 'cheapish' P6 sequence. If Belvoir hasn't broken through with one of his earlier runnners, a forward move by Beau Diablo would get 0/39 Victor Espinoza off the duck as well..

Most Likely: #8 Disarm 2-1 (A) WON ($4.00)
Next Best: #1 Greeley Awesome 7-2 (B) 2nd
Best Value: #3 Beau Diablo 3-1 (C) 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Salah Champ 9-2 (C) 4th


<$100 P6 Play:

3: 5-6 (7-8)
4: 3-4
5: 4-7 (6-9)
6: 6-8 (7-9)
7: 2-4-9
8: 8 (1-5)

All "A's" Play: 2x2x2x2x3x1 = 48 x $2 = $96


<$50 P4 Play:

5: 4-6-7-9
6: 6-8
7: 2-4-9
8: 1-3-8-9

4x2x3x4 = 96 x .5- = $48


Good luck!
Steve

Kasept 10-18-2012 12:39 PM

SA SCR/CHG'S

Kasept 10-18-2012 07:01 PM

Wow.. One winner. $233,291.00.. :tro:

That $10k claimer dusted me and chances for a late hit. Classy Lion ($24.20) was tough to land.

Swiss Bliss ($47.20) even tougher. Didn't Patricia Harrington have a big price in a C/O a couple weeks ago?

Hope everyone did OK..

tomm5647 10-19-2012 04:40 AM

Steve: I'm not a pick 6 guy but I watch your selections always. You nailed the 3rd race and the horse was ignored for the most part and paid very well. Thank you very much. You are incredible. Keep it going and crush the BC.

Kasept 10-19-2012 06:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomm5647 (Post 896815)
Steve: I'm not a pick 6 guy but I watch your selections always. You nailed the 3rd race and the horse was ignored for the most part and paid very well. Thank you very much. You are incredible. Keep it going and crush the BC.

Thanks a lot Tomm. I thought it was a good omen when Here Comes Donnie won, but it wasn't to be. Trying to get hot going into Cup..


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