Derby Trail Forums - 10/5: Keeneland (5th-10th)

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

Here's the link to Jeremy Plonk's KEE Fall Meet Statistical Preview which offers several interesting clues about winners at the stand.

5th: ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Kenneally has clear horse to beat in MGSP (multiple graded stakes placed) Heavenly Landing getting a drop of class relief today. Next three all viable at square numbers with Amoss' Snuggs potentially on a loose lead..

Most Likely: #6 Heavenly Landing 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #7 Snuggs and Kisses 5-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Millenia 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 My Perfect Ten 8-1 4th

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

Tough start to the P5. Oliver's Liberated a half to plus synth dasher Seruni while Kenneally firster Miss Brown Sugar kin to neat Ha Ha Tonka. Worthwhilepursuit from TAP is half to Disposablepleasure. Ward cuts back with Emotional Kitten but she hasn't been drilled for speed coming out of SAR and all of her sibs did better routing. Defensive posture only..

Best Value: #5 Liberated 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Worthwhilepursuit 3-1 10th
Exotics Use: #11 Miss Brown Sugar 10-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Ebbycalvin Laloosh 8-1 12th

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Loved Exothermic in the winter but he's awfully tough to take here at a short number off the long break and with no end to the seemingly live longshots lined up..

Most Likely: #4 Tiz Sardonic Joe 8-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Share Out 15-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Slow Pace 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #8 Where's the Baby 10-1 5th

8th: 160th Phoenix (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Plenty of pace here..

Best Value: #8 Lonesome Street 5-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Sum of the Parts 4-1 WON ($11.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Aikenite 4-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Laurie's Rocket 8-1 3rd

9th: 61st Alcibiades (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD)

Entertaining edition of this with capacity crowd of missies appearing ready to be mixed and matched any way you want. Stall's Magical Moon (5-1) bred to route yet demolished 5.5f-T Spa MSW. Casse's Spring in the Air a generous 12-1 out of late-running Natalma placement to stablemate Spring Venture who stays home in TO for Saturday's Mazarine. After that pair, anyone you like can be justified. Not sure what to do with Calder flash Rose to Gold. Note that the last three winners of this exited races at DMR (Deb) and WO (Deb, Natalma)..

Best Value: #9 Spring in the Air 12-1 WON ($10.60)
Next Best: #13 Magical Moon 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Gold Edge 12-1 7th
Super Add: #14 Dancinginthecircle 20-1 9th

10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)

Brutal end to the sequences..

Most Likely: #6 K to the Kroft 5-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Golden B.J. 20-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Rock Hard Cat 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 I'm Already Sexy 12-1 WON ($26.20)

<$75 P5 Play:

6: 2-5-11
7: 4-6
8: 1-6-8
9: 9-13
10: 4-5-6-10

3x2x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-6-8
8: 1-6-8
9: 7-9-13
10: 4-5-6-10

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve