Derby Trail Forums - 9/29: Belmont Park (2nd-11th, $97k C/O); Santa Anita (6th-11th)

Santa Anita weathered their opener Friday which unfortunately included a horse and Raphael Bejarano going down and the main track producing one speed-assisted winner after another. Will be interesting to see how surface plays during the first half of Saturday's important card. Bejarano refused a hospital visit and should be good to ride. Just a Mirage wasn't as lucky. First time lawn Unbridled's Note won the downhill Eddie D. feature like a grizzled turfer and positioned himself nicely for a Breeders' Cup try. He also further demonstrated that Julien Leparoux still has no excuse for not winning the King's Bishop with him last month. Bejarano's spill cost him the mount on my 'Best Bet' No Silent, who with Quinonez aboard could not surpress inside rallyer Sweet Swap in the first leg of the late P4. Strung the next 3 winners together and was kicking myself for missing the skein-starter when the .50 quad returned a stunning $698. The parlay for the $8.80, $6.40, $8.00 & $16.80 was just $236! Smallish (for California) carryover of $55k into the big Cup Preview card. New York resumes with a $97k C/O of its' own for the Jockey Club Gold Cup slate. Dr. Scott Palmer, fresh from Friday's NY Task Force presentation, and Steve Crist join Seth Merrow and me today on "Loose on the Lead". Ch. 12 in the Capital District and streaming at www.capitalotb.com..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

As speculated on ATR Friday, Gulfport SCR's to run in the Futurity Sunday..

Most Likely: #5 Midnite Poppa 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Make Your Move 8-1 4th
Best Value: #1e West Point entry 12-1 6th/8th
Exotics Use: #7 For Greater Glory 5-1 2nd

3rd: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Terrific group and it sure feels like Zito's Spin Out, exiting the King's Bishop, gets a great pace set up. Deep or back up tickets need to consider Saint of Saints..

Most Likely: #9 Spin Out 5-2 7th
Next Best: #8 Reserved Quality 4-1 4th
Best Value: #10 Summer Sunset 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Katz My Song 7-2 6th

4th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #15 Big Business 5-2 WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #13 Pearl of Wisdom 7-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Roaring Conquest 12-1 2nd

5th: 74th Beldame (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 It's Tricky 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Royal Delta 1-1 WON ($3.70)
Exotics Use: #2 Maristar 15-1 4th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-5-7-8
3: 4-7-8-9-10
4: 13-15
5: 3-6

5x5x2x2 = 100 x .50 = $50

6th: 32nd Kelso H. (G2), 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 To Honor and Serve 8-5 4th
Next Best: #6 Shackleford 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Jersey Town 12-1 WON ($18.00)
Exotics Use: #7 SCR

7th: 73rd Vosburgh (G1), 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Day's most harrowing puzzle..

Most Likely: #9 Justin Phillip 3-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Rothko 6-1 9th
Best Value: #7 Gate SCR
Exotics Use: #1e entry 7-2 WON ($6.20)/5th

8th: 35th Flower Bowl (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Dream Peace 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Nahrain 5-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #4 I'm a Dreamer 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Zagora 7-2 2nd

9th: 36th Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1), 3+, 12f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Point of Entry 4-5 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #3 Treasure Beach 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Little Mike 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Kindergarten Kid 12-1 3rd

10th: 94th Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), 3+, 1-f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Fort Larned 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Hymm Book 5-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Flat Out 3-1 WON ($9.30)
Exotics Use: #1 Ron the Greek 5-2 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-6-7-9
8: 1-4-7-8
9: 2-3-4
10: 4-5-9

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 P4 (1/7-8-2-9) Paid $88.00 x 2 = $176.00

11th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Most Likely: #4 Post Pattern 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Barnards Galaxy 6-1 WON ($11.60)
Best Value: #8 Sonnyandpally 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 U Whippersnapper 15-1 4th

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 5-6
7: 1-2-5-6-7-9
8: 1-4-7-8
9: 2
10: 5
11: 1-4

2x6x4x1x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: 1st Chandelier (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD)

Both this and the FrontRunner feature any number of candidates stretching out and making move to organic main track. Giving a little extra credit to those working well over the SA strip..

Most Likely: #7 Executiveprivilege 6-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #4 Wittgenstein 30-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Salamera 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 SCR

7th: 1st FrontRunner (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Not convinced that Know More is going to be as effective on this strip as he was at La Jolla. And certainly the surface was playing against off the pace players on Opening Day. Of the Baffert runners, maiden #10 Power Broker fits the bill best..

Most Likely: #10 Power Broker 4-1 WON ($12.60)
Next Best: #8 Capo Bastone 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Gabriel Charles 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Dry Summer 5-1 8th

8th: 1st Zenyatta (G1), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Chance here for Include Me Out to stilt or wilt under glare after Ellis lauded Siegel's MG1W Include 4yo. Versatile and the one with a target on her back. Love and Pride ships West for T-Pletch and will be tough to catch if someone (Switch) doesn't go with her early. Feels like 3rd time should be charm for Amani, but off pace style may not ideal today with questionable splits in front of her and speed-favoring strip apparent Friday..

Most Likely: #6 Include Me Out 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Joyful Victory 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Love and Pride 4-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #1 Amani 3-1 5th

9th: 1st Rodeo Drive (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-T (P3, DD)

Marketing Mix the absolute one to beat. Nereid abandons fiasco hood expirement. Stormy Lucy closest to tough Lady of Shamrock most recently. Let's Go Cheyene will be loose on the lead..

Most Likely: #11 Marketing Mix 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #13 Nereid 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Let's Go Cheyene 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Stormy Lucy 12-1 3rd

10th: 1st Awesome Again (G1), 3+, 10f (DD)

As discussed with Jay Privman, anything other than an authoratative Game On Dude victory will be viewed as a disappointment. Nonios (in receipt of 8#), Suggestive Boy and Rail Trip have big appeal as the blank-fillers..

Most Likely: #1 Game On Dude 3-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #3 Nonios 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Suggestive Boy 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Rail Trip 6-1 4th

11th: 1st Unzip Me, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #13 Starry Skies 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Byarama 4-1 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #11 Wild Truffles 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Madoffwiththemoney 6-1 11th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Killer Graces 8-1 4th

<$100 P6 Play:

6: 7
7: 2-5-8-10
8: 1-4-6-7
9: 11
10: 1
11: 8-11-13

1x4x4x1x1x3 = 48 x $2 = $96

$2 Pick 6 (2,5,7,10/10/7/11/1/7,8,14) Paid $452.80 (6OF6)
$2 Pick 6 (2,5,7,10/10/7/11/1/7,8,14) Paid $13.40 (5OF6) x 8 = $107.20

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-3-4-6-7
9: 2-11-13
10: 1
11: 6-8-10-11-13

5x3x1x5 = $75 ($36.50 for .50)

$1 P4 (7/11/1/7,8,14) Paid $88.30 ($44.15 for .50)

Good luck!
Steve