The election: polling, electoral college
 

So ... today Gallup has Obama outdoing Romney 49 to 44 as the Democratic convention bump continues to widen.

Romney lost one point from his convention, and stays down there.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

In the swing states, Romney and the Romney SuperPacs have bailed out and conceded Pennsylvania and Michigan to Obama, having pulled their ads from there.

Out of the original 13 swing states, there are only eight possible tossup states left.

Romney is trying to contend within these with massive negative ad buys, and the election comes down to these eight states:

Leaning Obama: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, New Hampshire

Leaning Romney: none

Current electoral college prediction by Nate Silver at Five-Thirty-Eight:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Electoral vote: 270 needed to win
Obama 316.9
Romney 221.1

Chance of winning election
Obama 79.8 %
Romney 20.2 %

Popular vote outcome
Obama 51.5 %
Romney 47.4 %