Derby Trail Forums - 8/20: Saratoga (Day 28; Union Avenue)

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Nothing clever..

Most Likely: #6 Tiz Yankee 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #1e West Point entry 9-5 WON/3rd ($3.60)
Best Value: #3 After the Bell 8-1 4th (3rd for Trifecta)
Exotics Use: #4 Round Midnight 5-1 6th

2nd: NY-OC/C, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Hushion terrific but 5-2 favorite Tug of War still needs more improvement to best all of the alternatives..

Best Value: #5 Pete's Parlay 6-1 DNF (Incident)
Next Best: #3 Recurring Dream 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Tug of War 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Mineswept 3-1 WON ($6.30)

3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)

Here Comes Drz gets stretched out, weight break and keeps improving. 5-1 more than acceptable..

Best Value: #8 Here Comes Drz 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Br. Alexander 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Rangey 8-5 WON ($3.40)
Super Add: #4 Todd Cole 12-1 7th

4th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)

Undefineable set with not a tremendous amount of pedigree insight to offer..

Most Likely: #8 Birchwood Road 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Always for You 6-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Grahamandwithers 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 Becker's Galaxy 8-1 4th

5th: Union Avenue-NY, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Nice little feature..

Most Likely: #6 Risky Rachel 6-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #7 Superior Sarah 6-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Willet 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Final Mesa 10-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-3-5
3: 5-7-8
4: 4-8
5: 2-3-6-7

4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

Absolutely terrific ALW with well-matched field including one of my offbeat favorites in Tonto Fontenot (SCRATCHED)..

Most Likely: #7 Late SCR
Next Best: #9 Voodoo Storm 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Midnite Silver 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Jimmy Simms 2-1 WON ($4.70)

7th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

More pedigree here than in the earlier state bred affair with Terranova sending FTS Irish Jade, a full to Oedipus O'Neal, and Pletcher introducing Larry Goichman's Medaglia d'Oro son M Six who is out of nice MSW J'ray..

Best Value: #4 Irish Jade 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 M Six 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Notacatbutallama 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Super Add: #7 Tequila Hero 15-1 7th

8th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD)

Yikes! You don't expect to find this many solid types with remaining upside in a maiden event for 3+'s. Tremendously competitive group..

Most Likely: #8 Geisha Gal 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Cerce Cay 10-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Conquesta 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1a Gloat 6-1 7th

9th: OC/N3X, 3+, 7f (DD)

For $90k, why not put a name on this heat and make it a stake?

Most Likely: #9 Little Drama 3-1 WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #3 Gallant Fields 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Raging Six 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Banner Bill 10-1 7th

10th: CLM, 3+, 9.5f-T

Best Value: #5 Slambino 12-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Grand Rapport 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Pocket Cowboys 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Monteagle 20-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4
8: 1-2-6-7-8-10
9: 3-4-9
10: 2-4-5-8

2x6x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve