Derby Trail Forums - 8/19: Saratoga (Lake Placid); Del Mar ($442k P6/$39k Hi-5 C/O's)

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW 2yo-F, 7f (P3, DD)

Nothing should stop Kimono, the Pletcher side of the Coolmore entry, but Champagne d'Oro half sis Liberty Girl may be much more prepared for 2nd start underneath..

Most Likely: #1e Coolmore entry 3-5 WON/2nd ($2.40)
Best Value: #3 Liberty Girl 6-1 3rd (2nd for wagering)
Next Best: #5 Gamientos Girl 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Rainbow Dreams 10-1 4th (3rd for wagering)

2nd: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Uggh.. There's about 8 fillies in here within a length or two of each other. Some way to start the P4. Smilin' Phil Serpe has won a hatful of races the last couple days and has had time to tinker with Always Home (12-1). Anything close to her June 2 try at Belmont will win this at a fat number. Johar Beauty (8-1) from Graham Motion may continue to progress after showing improvement in 2nd start while stretching out. Speaking of which, is it me, or has the Motion barn been unusually dull the last several months?

Best Value: #5 Always Home 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Johar Beauty 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 Fast and Strong 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #9 Clever Spirit 6-1 3rd

3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Tricky Guy 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Revere 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Backdown 2-1 WON ($4.50)
Super Add: #1 Side Party Ralph 4-1 2nd

4th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Wise Harmony 5-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Sheza Heartbreaker 6-1 DNF (Saddle)
Next Best: #8 First Whippoorwill 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Cosmic Energy 3-1 WON ($7.50)

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)

Round up the usual suspects for this 2yo filly turf route. Note that Chad Brown sends Stonestreet Curlin miss J'esprit that's a half to Stormin Baghdad. Barbara Banke is 6 for 6 at the meet with 4 wins coming alone as Stonestreet and 2 in partnership with George Bolton..

Best Value: #8 J'esprit 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Citizen Emma 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Broken Spirit 6-1 WON ($15.80)
Super Add: #2 Colorful Image 4-1 10th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-5-7-9-10
3: 3-4-6
4: 6-7
5: 2-5-8-10

6x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th:OC/S-ALW, 3yo, 8.5f-IT (PG/S, P3, DD)

Many candidates for success lined up. Our Entourage (3-1) has been consistent against better, so this constitutes class relief. Dominguez lands on Hear the Word (8-1) giving this 'first time Motion' a major piloting upgrade..

Most Likely: #1 Our Entourage 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Hear the Word 8-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Selection Sunday 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Balance the Budget 20-1 5th

7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

'Big messy group. Watch the board for any hints when putting your P4 tix..

Most Likely: #9 Wish to Opine 3-1 WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #14 Marcy 10-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Irish Wedding 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Pegasus Diamond 12-1 3rd

8th: 29th Lake Placid (G2), 3yo-F, 9f-IT (P3, DD)

Real chess match. Who would be a surprise?

Best Value: #4 Better Lucky 5-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Centre Court 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Somali Lemonade 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Stephanie's Kitten 9-5 WON ($4.20)

9th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 7f (DD)

Wild scramble. Don't be shy about prices..

Best Value: #6 Marvelous Margeret 8-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Caviar N Champagne 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Princess Mara 12-1 5th
Super Add: #10 Bid a Moon 15-1 6th

10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f

Most Likely: #1 Read the Research 9-2 WON ($6.10)
Best Value: #11 Tahoe Tigress 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Readygetsgold 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Deflate the Bubble 4-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-8-9-14
8: 1-2-3-4-5-6
9: 6-8-9
10: 1-11

4x6x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

DEL MAR

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)

$442k C/O starts here..

Best Value: #2 Sweet Elation 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Panettone 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Oskar Hval 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Aragorn Sword 5-1 7th

5th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Folk Dancer 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Ambitoness 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #3 Ghost N Your Heart 5-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Collating Lady 4-1 3rd

6th: 41st Rancho Bernardo (G3), F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Really good group..

Best Value: #6 Glamorista 12-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Winding Way 2-1 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Moonstruck Maya 6-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Rumor 5-2 3rd

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Sharp-breaking Baffert firster likely a good single option, but has SCRATCHED..

Best Value: #3 Madame Cactus 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Secret Memo 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Truly Marie 5-1 WON ($6.40)
Super Add: #1 Miss Derek 6-1 4th

8th: 18th Solana Beach H., Cal-bred F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #4 Antares World 3-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Blendara 20-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Halo Dolly 5-2 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #8 A Jealous Woman 8-1 8th

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)

$33k Hi-5 C/O here..

Most Likely: #8 Danger Lurking 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 A. P. Corsair 9-2 6th
Next Best: #3 America Rising 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Lea Von 20-1 12th
Super/Hi-5: #5 I Run for Fun 8-1 WON ($21.40)

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-2-5-10
5: 1-3-6
6: 2-5-6
7: 3-9
8: 4
9: 8

4x3x3x2x1x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-5-6-7
7: 3-9
8: 4-7-9
9: 3-8-9-10

5x2x3x4 = 120 x .50 = $60

Good luck!
Steve