Derby Trail Forums - 6/30: Belmont (8th-11th); Hollywood ($70k C/O)

Always a good day when you hit a P6 and the Friday Belmont carryover sequence paid exceptionally well considering there was only one tough horse to find. Went 6 deep in the 8th to catch $25 Mizzen Donald who combined with the 5 winners that were under 2-1 to return $3,618 and another $300+ in consos. The late P3 ($270 for $1) and P4 ($221 for .50) paid handsomely as well via the 11-1 winner of the 8th. Hope many rode along and did well. Big, long day of action with 2 stakes at BEL, a C/O at HOL and stakes-laden evening at CD, PrM and CT..

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

#13 (AE) Ruthless Alley a danger if drawing in..

Most Likely: #10 Native Wave 3-1 8th
Best Value: #9 Longwood Lake 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Unbridled Fire 4-1 WON ($12.80)
Exotics Use: #7 Magnificent Moon 12-1 4th

9th: 69th New York (G2), F&M-3+, 10f-IT (P3, DD)

Just 6 but like last weeks' Mother Goose, a case can be made for nearly all with heralded invader Banimpire facing the top 4 from the Sheepshead Bay..

Most Likely: #4 Mystical Star 4-1 WON ($11.80)
Best Value: #3 Principal Role 8-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Banimpire 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Aruna 9-5 2nd

10th: 95th Dwyer (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Zetterholm 3-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Teeth of the Dog 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #2 Fast Falcon 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Morgan's Guerilla 4-1 3rd

11th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT

Most Likely: #1 Sr. Henry 5-2 7th
Best Value: #2 Veiled Prophet 9-2 WON ($13.40)
Next Best: #9 Beckham Bend 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 The Vin Man 10-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-9-10
9: 1-2-3-4-6
10: 1-2-4-5-6
11: 1-2

3x5x5x2 = 150 x .50 = $75

$0.50 Pick 4 (2/4/6/2) Paid $325.00

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 3+, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD)

$70k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #3 Toruk Makto 3-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Dreamcatcher 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Bio Pro 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Swift Eagle 7-2 WON ($13.00)

6th: 61st Triple Bend (G1), 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Especially good edition of this if you want to bet against The Factor, and there's plenty of morning observers speculating that doing so is advisable..

Best Value: #3 Mobilized 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Smiling Tiger 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 The Factor 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Camp Victory 6-1 WON ($22.60)

7th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Ricspretentiousgal 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Jolly Days 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #2 Starship Flare 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Dynamic Diva 8-1 6th

8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

With due respect to the stakes around the country, this may be the day's most interesting race. Azeri son Take Control (A.P. Indy) returns after a 2.5 year absense for Baffert and Kaleem Shah and same connections offer up forward going Patriot's Voyage as well. Shirreffs sends emergent Death Star and 'buzzy' import Treasury Devil while Paddy Gallagher sends 10-1 sleeper Press Baron. Major league ALW event and guaranteed to produce stakes runners..

Most Likely: #4 Patriot's Voyage 3-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Treasury Devil 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Take Control 5-2 WON ($8.00)
Exotics Use: #5 Death Star 5-1 3rd

9th: 69th Shoemaker Mile (G1), 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Simply terrific running of this with Little Mike and Corporate Jungle invading from the East..

Most Likely: #3 Little Mike 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Mr. Commons 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Corporate Jungle 5-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Hudson Landing 20-1 7th

10th: Cal-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #7 Stretch 20-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Strong Wind 9-2 WON ($10.00)
Exotics Use: #10 Old Man Lake 3-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Fighting Hussar 4-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #3 Great Friends Rule 5-1 9th

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 3-5-6
6: 3-5-6-7
7: 6
8: 4
9: 3-6-8
10: 5-7

3x4x1x1x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-6
8: 2-3-4-5-6
9: 3-6-8
10: 1-3-5-7-10

2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

Good luck!
Steve