Derby Trail Forums - 6/29: Belmont Park ($23k C/O)

Early P4 at Belmont fell into place Thursday to the tune of $389 before second half of the card went squirrely. Baby J got the early sequence off perfectly at a juicy win tote ($18.20) as the Nihei firster popped and never stopped. Mrs. Weber's Seasoned Warrior from Mott was closing in on the winner near the wire and should win next out going 6f. The Repole-Pletcher debutter Onetwentyeight ($3.00) was a worthy single ahead of Karakorum Elektra ($8.40) 's successful return and Jet Set Cat ($16.80) boosted the payback in the anchor in his first start for Mitch Freidman. Chris Englehardt swiped the winner via the claim box. The rest of the action wasn't impossible, but it proved quirky enough to trip a $23k carryover into Friday.

At Hollywood, I got to the changes very late and blew an opportunity to nab the $440 quad. A Toast to you scratched from the 7th and I just went with the smaller ticket when adding My Best Brother (3-1) was logical and the missing link to the play. Sorry.. Still another fun, profitable (small) afternoon and hope everyone did well! Big Friday with Belmont in the early p.m. and then Churchill, Prairie Meadows and Hollywood taking us from 6pm-2am!

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 10f-IT (P6, P3, DD)

$23k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #1 Imagining 6-5 WON ($3.10)
Next Best: #5 Lake Tahoe 2-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Grand Rapport 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Witor 12-1 6th

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Almost an Angel faced nice one in Joha last; Debutting Priscilla Marie (Bustin Stones) is the half sister of streaking Little Mike who faces elders in the Shoemaker Saturday; $360k purchase #3 Apple Cider (More Than Ready) is out of largely forgotten MGSW Who Did It And Run, a NJ-bred that beat the boys in the '98 Jersey Derby (8.5f-T) at Garden State; Mrs. Genarazio (Presious Passion) homebred Wicked Disco had a fiasco debut and will be a price..

Most Likely: #2 Almost an Angel 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #8 Priscilla Marie 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Apple Cider 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Wicked Disco 20-1 9th

6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

I guess you are forced to trust even money Harpsichord but Siberian Wildcat, Three Zips (Blnks off), Fly Cat (Blnks on) and Overloud all seem just as plausible in this weak event. Just Safe is by modest sire Safe in the U.S.A. who manages to get 19% debut winners and many of Montalvo's infrequent wins have come with clandestine Roy Lerman..

Most Likely: #3 Harpsichord 1-1 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #4 Just Safe 12-1 4th-DQ'd from 2nd
Next Best: #6 Siberian Wildcat 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Three Zips 8-1 8th

7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Readbytheline 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Smokem's Charm 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Crafty Dreamer 8-1 WON ($5.70)
Exotics Use: #7 Solengo 10-1 7th

8th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD)

Spare Change had better be much improved..

Most Likely: #5 Kaleidoscope 6-1 6th
Best Value: #9 Born Bullish 12-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Famous Rose 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Natalie Victoria 8-1 3rd

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f

Most Likely: #2 Alternative 4-1 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #1 Bustarella 12-1 -
Next Best: #9 Jade Glory Again 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Go to the Net 15-1 -

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-5
5: 2
6: 3-4
7: 2-5-6
8: 4-5-6-7-8-9
9: 2

2x1x2x3x6x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 Pick 6 (1,3,9/2/3/2/8/2,10) Paid $3,618.00

$2 Pick 6 (1,3,9/2/3/2/8/2,10) Paid $33.60 (5OF6) x 9 = $302.40

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-5-6
7: 2-5-6
8: 4-5-6-7-8-9
9: 1-2

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (3/2/8/2,10) Paid $221.50

Good luck!
Steve