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-   -   Stop The Hand Ringing! (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=47022)

goodcopy 06-04-2012 10:47 PM

Stop The Hand Ringing!
 
Give me a break,All the hand ringing and fence riding by all but a few of the so called professional handicappers is about to make me sick!
Especially on Tvg,Todd Shrupp,Rich Perloff,Dave Weaver,Matt Carruthers,Simond and all that gang and but for the exception of Jon White,Steve Byk nobody is willing to step up from a handicapping standpoint and say that I'll Have Another is the fastest horse in the race!
From a strict handicapping standpoint he has the past performance the breeding the obviously will to win and I think from a pace stand point he looks to have both tactical speed and the ability to quicken or turn of foot to close in the last 1/4 mile to over take any potential "thief"(Paynter)that might try to steal the race on the front end!
From A Beyer #(last or average)from the sheets or any other numerical speed value he is lengths ahead of Paynter(his closest)Dullahand(Likely off the pace main threat)or even Union Rags who just isn't that fast of horse(Or has the pedigree to get he distance).
These guys are trying to hedge there picks with a "Emotional"pick or who they are "Rooting"for but are trying to use anecdotal data or historical nonsense that is not congruent or applies to a handicapping perspective
Give me speed,pace,weight,jockey/trainer stats/even post position and weather for your reasons but not races against Spectacular Bid or Real Quiet,Funny Side or the other of the 11 who for whatever reason couldn't get it done because I'll Have Another is not racing those colts! :eek:

Calzone Lord 06-04-2012 10:49 PM

The Kings are one when away.

goodcopy 06-04-2012 11:01 PM

Good Point
 
Hey"Lord",I appreciate all the scanned forms and the insight to the past(someone ask about "Goodcopy"it's a combo of the last name and the fact I worked on copiers all my life)
What kind of "hoopla" would there be if Point Given had not took a right turn in the Derby and how do you think he stands the test of time?:)

Calzone Lord 06-04-2012 11:09 PM

Whoever goodcopy's handler is needs to grow up.

Seriously, what the fucl< is wrong with you that you'd create and actually stick with that concept?

The current odds on goodcopy:

Morty: +380
Field: -420

goodcopy 06-04-2012 11:22 PM

What?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 866075)
Whoever goodcopy's handler is needs to grow up.

Seriously, what the fucl< is wrong with you that you'd create and actually stick with that concept?

The current odds on goodcopy:

Morty: +380
Field: -420

Who sh-t on your wheaties?just thought you were the one who asked about my editing skills in another thread.
sorrey about the complement on the "historical"scans of the DRF
Now I know why you think of yourself as "LORD":mad:

Indian Charlie 06-05-2012 01:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord (Post 866075)
Whoever goodcopy's handler is needs to grow up.

Seriously, what the fucl< is wrong with you that you'd create and actually stick with that concept?

The current odds on goodcopy:

Morty: +380
Field: -420

No freakin way that's Morty.

Danzig 06-05-2012 07:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goodcopy (Post 866066)
Give me a break,All the hand ringing and fence riding by all but a few of the so called professional handicappers is about to make me sick!
Especially on Tvg,Todd Shrupp,Rich Perloff,Dave Weaver,Matt Carruthers,Simond and all that gang and but for the exception of Jon White,Steve Byk nobody is willing to step up from a handicapping standpoint and say that I'll Have Another is the fastest horse in the race!
From a strict handicapping standpoint he has the past performance the breeding the obviously will to win and I think from a pace stand point he looks to have both tactical speed and the ability to quicken or turn of foot to close in the last 1/4 mile to over take any potential "thief"(Paynter)that might try to steal the race on the front end!
From A Beyer #(last or average)from the sheets or any other numerical speed value he is lengths ahead of Paynter(his closest)Dullahand(Likely off the pace main threat)or even Union Rags who just isn't that fast of horse(Or has the pedigree to get he distance).
These guys are trying to hedge there picks with a "Emotional"pick or who they are "Rooting"for but are trying to use anecdotal data or historical nonsense that is not congruent or applies to a handicapping perspective
Give me speed,pace,weight,jockey/trainer stats/even post position and weather for your reasons but not races against Spectacular Bid or Real Quiet,Funny Side or the other of the 11 who for whatever reason couldn't get it done because I'll Have Another is not racing those colts! :eek:

you can ring your hands?! that is amazing. i bet it gets annoying tho.
seriously tho, all spelling bashing aside...


the odds are simply not in i'll have anothers favor. better horses than him have gotten to this point, and something has happened....whether a better horse emerged, or a better trip, a better ride, or better luck. a lose shoe, a horse who loved the belmont surface, a bad ride, a safety pin...the list goes on and on. 11 horses since affirmed have gotten thru both derby and preakness only to come up short, by a whisker or a mile, in this race.

now, does all that affect iha's chances in this race? no. but the toll of three races in five weeks, the extra quarter mile, the fresh shooters, etc cannot be ignored.
is he the best horse? maybe. but maybe he's not. maybe he got right at the right time. maybe now he slides, maybe now he loses a step. or maybe not.

there isn't one person out there hoping he loses. but many are too wary to say he will surely win.

slotdirt 06-05-2012 07:53 AM

There is nothing at all good about what s/he is copying. It's like a bad Hovdey article on repeat. Check that, it's like any Hovdey article on repeat.

Coach Pants 06-05-2012 08:23 AM

No! We will not stop the ringing of the hands, sir!

http://youtu.be/1b0fkfO_bvs

goodcopy 06-05-2012 09:33 AM

What no Scan of DRF?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig (Post 866099)
you can ring your hands?! that is amazing. i bet it gets annoying tho.
seriously tho, all spelling bashing aside...


the odds are simply not in i'll have anothers favor. better horses than him have gotten to this point, and something has happened....whether a better horse emerged, or a better trip, a better ride, or better luck. a lose shoe, a horse who loved the belmont surface, a bad ride, a safety pin...the list goes on and on. 11 horses since affirmed have gotten thru both derby and preakness only to come up short, by a whisker or a mile, in this race.

now, does all that affect iha's chances in this race? no. but the toll of three races in five weeks, the extra quarter mile, the fresh shooters, etc cannot be ignored.
is he the best horse? maybe. but maybe he's not. maybe he got right at the right time. maybe now he slides, maybe now he loses a step. or maybe not.

there isn't one person out there hoping he loses. but many are too wary to say he will surely win.

At least you have a theory that applies to the horses running this year,as far as three races in 5 weeks,maybe,but the only"new shooter"that Beyers anywhere close is Paynter and Dullahand,which IHA has defeated both by lengths and I think he'll improve with the added distance!
My real complaint is about the "Mixed"handicapping method of using currant data and anecdotal data from the past to try and predict how to wager ond make some money on this race.
I want everybody to stop couching there comments and predictions with there emotions and base there handicapping on tried and true methods :eek:

Rudeboyelvis 06-05-2012 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants (Post 866114)
No! We will not stop the ringing of the hands, sir!

http://youtu.be/1b0fkfO_bvs

Great - I've got a frigging migraine now... :mad:


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