Derby Trail Forums - 5/18: Belmont Park (3-day $320k C/O)

Made a few good moves Thursday at Belmont including decision to focus on smaller multi-race punts and tread lightly on treacherous looking 2 day carryover which ended up featuring $80 and $100 winners. Couldn't find 50-1 Irish Lion in the starter handicap 8th, but did OK tabbing 40-1 wire threat Beppj (pronounced bep-ee, not bep-jay) as the on top 'Best Value'. Indeed, Sciacca's Beppj held on under a strong ride by Mike Luzzi who gave the quickish sister of routing turfers Mr. Hooker and Sister Berta a breather through the middle portion of the race before scooting home. In addition to the generous $83 mutuel, Beppj closed out a healthy $422 P4.

When Irish Lion won the 8th, a third carryover seemed assured, but in fact Ned Allard's She Is a Lioness was somehow covered in the nightcap for the whole $320,000. Favored Margaret Lilian came through in the finale with Desert Bliss, my other longish notion for the day, a closing but distant 2nd at 13-1. So as a result, there will be a jackpot of 1/3 of a million drawing attention away from the Pimlico card Friday and I would think you can expect a rare NY sextet pool of more than $1,000,000.

Hope you did well Thursday and are armed for the C/O try and/or the Pimlico slate which itself boasts a $114k P5 satch.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

$320k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #6 Dylan Dangerous 8-5 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #3 Missle Nick 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Lone Star Gold 2-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Five Card Draw 10-1 2nd

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)

This is a minefield. Would love to include #10 Out of Your Mind (6-1), but is trying that less-than-impactful turf turnback..

Best Value: #2 Plainview 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Departures 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Et Al 7-2 7th
Super Add: #4 Holy Crusader 10-1 9th

6th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Not a lot to sink your teeth into here either..

Most Likely: #5 Simply Stunning 6-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Loblolly Pine 10-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Pogonia 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Sunday to Remember 7-2 2nd

7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Just how much can you depend on Touch of Revenge? Will be a single on many tix in this rag tag assembly. This would be a helluva spot for 0-for-42 City Vice (7yo) to break her maiden, wouldn't it? Believe it or not, her '11 turf sprints are competitive here.. WON ($42.20)

Most Likely: #12 Touch of Revenge 7-5 5th
Best Value: #8 Blazing Arches 10-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #6 Sweetest Peach 20-1 10th

8th: OC/C, 3+, 9f-IT (DD)

Most Likely: #1e Ribaudo entry 2-1 4th/6th
Next Best: #2 Belo Action 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Freshman Dorm 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Hyper 7-2 WON ($7.40)

9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #9 Shalangar 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Modest 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Tapaway 7-2 WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #1 Pervis 30-1 2nd

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 6
5: 2-9
6: 2-5-7
7: 8-10-12
8: 1
9: 1-5-7-9

1x2x4x3x1x4 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-7
7: 6-8-10-12
8: 1-2-6
9: 1-5-7-9

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve