Derby Trail Forums - 4/28: Belmont (7th-10th); Hollywood ($65k C/O)

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Wild start to P4 with many trying turf or stretching out like Suns Out Guns Out, Darwin Award and Redemption Road. Add those to the more experienced lawn runners and you've got a scrambler..

Most Likely: #7 Distortionist 7-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Darwin Award 15-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Suns Out Guns Out 5-1 6th
Exotics Use: #11 Repemption Road 10-1 8th

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Town Flirt best here by seemingly wide margin on drop, but doesn't the drop itself concern you?

NOTE: #13 World Premier DOES draw in..

Most Likely: #9 Born Flirt 7-5 4th
Best Value: #7 Beppj 12-1 7th
Next Best: #13 World Premier 6-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Persky's Heart 10-1 2nd

9th: 84th Westchester (G3), 3+, 1m (DD)

Yet another handicap division star returns as To Honor and Serve preps here for the Met Mile. Normally Mott returnees not tight, but Hall of Famer described by Grening as 'giddy' this week in anticipation of Live Oak colt's 4yo so go against at your own risk..

SCR Ponzi Scheme & Marilyn's Guy, so no Super..

Most Likely: #6 To Honor and Serve 7-5 WON ($3.20)
Next Best: #1 Boys at Toscanova 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Bold Deed 12-1 3rd

10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Rock N Cozy 8-5 5th
Best Value: #5 Three Zips 15-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Gianni 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #10 Mighty Reward 10-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-7-8-10-11
8: 5-7-9-13
9: 6
10: 2-5-6-10

6x4x1x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: 13th Grey Memo-CA, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$65k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #3 Caffeine High 7-2 8th
Next Best: #5 Pulpit's Express 5-1 12th
Best Value: #9 Relentless Heat 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Gatheratthealter 8-1 WON ($19.60)

.10 SUPER: 3-5 with 3-5-6-8-9-10 with 3-5-6-8-9-10 with 3-5-6-8-9-10 (2x5x4x3 = 120 x .10 = $12.00)

6th: 17th Melair-CA, 3yo-F, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

As much as Solis made the right call avoiding Kentucky fever, Willa B Awesome runs into a couple of nice ones in the likes of Starry Skies and Starlight Magic and is vulnerable out of lay-it-down SA Oaks..

Most Likely: #4 Willa B Awesome 7-5 WON ($4.20)
Next Best: #2 Starry Skies 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Starlight Magic 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Warren's Amber 8-1 4th

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Blue Jay Attack 7-2 5th
Next Best: #2 My Summer Slew 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Streakin' Mohican 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Super Add: #7 Inuit Fisher 4-1 4th

8th: 19th Snow Chief-CA, 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Interesting group and I think we all need to fool around with the 2 maidens..

Best Value: #4 D' Obsession 12-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Unusual Heatwave 7-2 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #10 Stoney Fleece 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Dylan Donnelly 6-1 3rd

9th: 10th Tiznow-CA, 4+, 7.5f (DD, Super)

Plenty of pace to set up Mobilized who blows by them all running back to the downhill ALW effort last.

Most Likely: #1 MOBILIZED 7-2 WON ($7.80)
Next Best: #5 Italian Rules 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Joy Boy 15-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 M One Rifle 9-2 5th

10th: 13th NTRA-CA, 3+, 6.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Night Wind 7-2 6th
Best Value: #1 Bertrando Falls 8-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Swift Eagle 6-1 12th
Exotics Use: #14 Enduring Promise 9-2 5th
Super/Hi-5: #3 Valentine Boy 6-1 WON ($15.20)

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 3-5
6: 2-4-5
7: 2-6
8: 3-4
9: 1
10: 1-2-6

2x3x2x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-6-7
8: 3-4-8-10
9: 1-5
10: 1-2-6

4x4x2x3 = 96 x .50 = $48

Good luck!
Steve