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-   -   4/22: Aqueduct ($45k C/O-Mandatory Pay) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=46409)

Kasept 04-22-2012 09:21 AM

4/22: Aqueduct ($45k C/O-Mandatory Pay)
 
AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


Must pay P6 at Aqueduct today and it's a very difficult set of races that sees added confusion thanks to half the events coming off the turf. Rain being guaranteed but hard to know how sloppy things will be. Watch for extensive SCR's and be prepared to adjust play to conditions..


4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 City Kiss 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Smarty Aya 12-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Bangzoomtothemoon 5-2 7th
Exotics Use: #13 Dandy's Noble 6-1 10th


5th: CLM, 4+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Deep, contentious group. Nearly all plausible with your view of pace scenario the deciding factor..

Best Value: #10 Perfect Drive 12-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Al's Lark 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Call Me Tony 8-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Ezzy 8-1 WON ($12.60)


6th:NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Worst kind of race for must-play multi sequence given widely undefinable qualities of modest group, wet track unknowns and pair of first time starters. Does look like there's no shortage of speed signed, so someone who stalks and pounces feels like the play..

Best Value: #8 Sweet Moon 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Pogonia 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Our Pink Ribon 6-1 5th
Super Add: #1e Purchase entry 6-1 WON ($12.20)/6th


7th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #11 Keep Me Informed 4-1 WON ($6.60)
Best Value: #6 Best Actor 8-1 4th
Next Best: #15 Mineswept 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Dominant Jeannes 4-1 7th


8th: NY-Fabersham, 4+, 7f (DD, Super)

What a nice group of veteran state bred stakes runners..

Most Likely: #1a Uncle T Seven 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 SCR
Best Value: #7 Wee Freudian 12-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Be Bullish 4-1 4th


9th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Very tough finish with pace a question depending on who stays in..

Most Likely: #10 Thisskysabeauty 3-1 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #11 Atitlan 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #14 Mason's Comprise 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #9 Mightylover 8-1 5th


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 2-8-10
5: 7-10
6: 5-8
7: 6-11-15
8: 1-6
9: 10

3x2x2x3x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5-8
7: 6-11-15
8: 1-2-6-7
9: 9-10-11-14

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

Kasept 04-22-2012 10:24 AM

AQU SCR/CHG'S


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