Derby Trail Forums - 4/20: Aqueduct (2nd-9th; $20k C/O)

Keeneland swings continue to be frustrating as 'main' track races regularly are won by horses whose form is tough to decipher. Lookin at Tiger snatched a win from Phoot Shoot in the 5th yesterday and on closer inspection did have the CD turf maidenbreaker last June as a race good enough to beat the ones he faced. I missed Sisterhood who took the impossible 7th, a race where any of the 10 were possible. Laid out the Appalachian in 1-2-3-4 order with Dayatthespa predictably controling the race from the opening bell to run her '12 mark to 3/3-0-0. Hope everyone did OK. $20k Aqueduct carryover on another fun Friday card. Leave for Louisville after today's ATR with Derby coverage starting live from the Downs Monday!

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Wildcat's Smile 2-1 WON ($4.90)
Next Best: #3 Sing Dixie Sing 8-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Alphabet Jamerica 6-1 5th

3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Musical Rain 7-2 DH-3rd
Next Best: #6 Laughing 8-5 WON ($4.30)
Exotics Use: #3 Silver Screamer 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 In Te Domine 8-1 5th

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$20k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #4 Jade Glory Again 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Greyfriars 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Daddy's Wildcat 2-1 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #9 Solid d'Oro 5-1 5th

5th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Wholelottashakin 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Shakeira 5-2 WON ($8.20)
Best Value: #5 Viv's Tiara 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Inimitable Romanee 3-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-5
3: 2-3-4-5-6
4: 4-6-7
5: 3-7

3x5x3x2 = 90 x .50 = $45

$.50 Pick 4 (5-1/6/7-3/7-7) Piad $17.37

6th: OC/S-ALW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult group and I opted for the best prices available. If you can fit favorite #2 Tightend Touchdown (3-1) into your plays, it's probably a good idea. Seems as likely as the four below..

Most Likely: #3 Elusive Story 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Mark It Man 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Photon 5-1 WON ($6.10)

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Why are we supposed to be so scared by 1st time NA Magical Cat (2-1)? Away since August last, exits 'B' circuit company in Ireland and there's no guarantee that she's fast enough for 1 mile..

Best Value: #1 Sylvestris 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Zultanite 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Magical Cat 2-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #7 Singn On Themoon 7-2 2nd

8th: CLM, 4+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Starforaday 4-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Obligingly 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Crown the Chief 12-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 He's So Chic 8-1 WON ($11.80)

9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Blue Grass Music 5-2 6th
Best Value: #9 Harbor Spirit 8-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Dopke Gal 6-1 WON ($17.80)
Exotics Use: #10 In Her Hey Day 12-1 3rd

<$75 P6 Play:

4: 4
5: 3-7
6: 3-6-8
7: 1-2-4
8: 6-7
9: 2

1x2x3x3x2x1 = 36 x $2 = $72

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-6-8
7: 1-2-4-7
8: 2-6-7
9: 2-9

4x4x3x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

Good luck!
Steve