Derby Trail Forums - 4/14: AQU ($25k C/O); KEE (5th-12th); OP (8th-11th); CT (9th-12)

Muddled through the action in New York, Kentucky and Arkansas Friday giving back a lot of Thursday's profits whiffing on the P4's. Despite looking forward to the sequences, I never found a rhythm or was able to pounce on a glaring opportunity. They'll be plenty of chances to make up for it today though with an outstanding Blue Grass card at treacherous Keeneland, a $25k P6 carryover on a solid Aqueduct sequence and stakes-laden P4's at Oaklawn on Derby/Closing Day at Charles Town where the $1,000,000 Classic anchors the action. Hope you did OK Friday and we all have a big day..

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$25k C/O starts here..

Deep, intriguing start to the P6 with some nice, lightly-raced players including KMc 2nd timer #1a Broome Street (half to Sky Mesa), Pletcher debuter Street Brawl (Out of MSW dam Regally Appealling), McGaughey FTS Reflecting (Out of MSW Daydreaming) and more..

Most Likely: #1e McLaughlin entry 5-2 4th/6th
Next Best: #7 Street Brawl 4-1 WON ($12.60)
Exotics Use: #2 Love to Run 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Luckysdream 5-1 8th

6th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

One of the 'knocking on door' faves likely gets it done here. Dendrite looks like controling speed, but Reserve Currency feels like the horse to beat..

Most Likely: #7 Reserve Currency 3-1 WON ($6.10)
Next Best: #8 Dendrite 4-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Apse 10-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Winter Now 8-1 2nd

7th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Dime claimers make for an incredible scramble with droppers and barn changes galore..

Most Likely: #11 Summer Share 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Mutiny 10-1 WON ($46.80)
Next Best: #3 Eminent Tale 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Lincoln Penny 12-1 13th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Jeter returned at 3 as a gelding and if you believe he'll come close to the effort 4 weeks ago, he's the single you desperately need in this sextet..

Most Likely: #10 Jeter 7-5 5th
Next Best: #12 Verbosity 5-2 WON ($9.80)
Best Value: #6 Modern Child 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Wishingonastar 12-1 4th

9th: 58th Distaff H. (G2), F&M-3+, 7f (DD, Super)

This wasn't exactly the next planned step for It's Tricky and as a straight sprinter, she's plenty vulnerable. Nicole H ran her guts out in the Fritchie only to be collared late..

Most Likely: #3 Nicole H 3-1 4th
Next Best: #7 It's Tricky 6-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #1 C C's Pal 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 White Merlot 20-1 5th

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Dream Man 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Gunman 5-2 WON ($8.70)
Exotics Use: #7 Chardsey 6-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Out of Your Mind 15-1 4th

<$100 P6 Play:

5: 1-2-7
6: 7
7: 6-11
8: 10
9: 1-3-4-7
10: 4-12

3x1x2x1x4x2 = 48 x $2 = $96

$2 Pick 6 (7/2,7,10/6/12/5,6,7/12) Paid $122.50 (5OF6)

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 3-6-11
8: 10-12
9: 1-3-4-7
10: 4-12

3x2x4x2 = $48 ($24 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (6/12/5,6,7/12) Paid $562.50 ($281.25 for .50)

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N3X, 4+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Sky Blazer 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Close Ally 4-1 WON ($8.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Charging Home 10-1 10th
Super Add: #7 Derby Kitten 9-2 7th

6th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Hard to look past the obvious here..

Most Likely: #10 Golden Ridge 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #12 Current Design 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Platform 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Untethered 5-1 6th

7th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Dancing Solo 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Treasured Up 5-1 WON ($14.80)
Next Best: #1 Putthebabiesdown 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 SCR

8th: Jenny Wiley (G1), F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

P4 approach hinges on getting Zagora through in the opening leg. Has form cycle edge on rock solid Aruna..

Most Likely: #2 Zagora 8-5 5th
Next Best: #4 Aruna 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Daisy Devine 10-1 WON ($16.20)

9th: Commonwealth (G2), 4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Wacky lineup and Bergerac, a clever claim by Paul Pompa, may do to this on the turnback what Groupie Doll did to the Madison Thursday. And if you haven't noticed, he's the lone runner here with a win over the strip..

Best Value: #7 Bergerac 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Plutonium 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Comedero 2-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Right One 9-5 3rd

10th: Shakertown (G3), 4+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Will cover shaky fave #1 Perfect Officer (7-2) in the multis, but he is no better than several lining up..

Best Value: #3 Great Attack 5-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Chamberlain Bridge 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Havelock 4-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Surfrider 8-1 5th

11th: Blue Grass (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

As discussed at length on ATR, race sets up for Dullahan but there are several in the cast who might jump up as has been the case in this event since the advent of the poly..

Most Likely: #6 Dullahan 6-1 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #4 Hansen 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Prospective 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Holy Candy 30-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Gung Ho 30-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (6-4) Paid $11.80
$1 Trifecta (6-4-2) Paid $164.50
$1 Superfecta (6-4-2-9) Paid $1,489,20

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 2
9: 1-2-3-7
10: 1-3-4-7-8-9
11: 3-4-6-9

1x4x6x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

12th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #2 SCR
Next Best: #9 Appealing Cat 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Modulate 5-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Woodford Lady 7-2 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #5 June Cleaver 4-1 WON ($5.60)

<$50 P5 Play:

8: 2
9: 3-7
10: 1-3-4-7-8-9
11: 4-6
12: 1-5-6-9

1x2x6x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

OAKLAWN PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

8th: 39th Count Fleet (G3), 3+, 6f (P3)

An All Stakes P4 didn't occur to anyone in Hot Springs?

Most Likely: #3 Izzy Rules 8-5 5th
Best Value: #4 Outta Tune 5-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #5 Apriority 2-1 2nd

9th: 15th Northern Spur, 3yo, 1m (P4, Super)

Best Value: #4 Explain 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #7 Drill 4-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 SCR
Super Add: #1 King Coral 12-1 4th

10th: 66th Oaklawn H. (G2), 4+, 9f (P3, Super)

This event makes up for what the Apple Blossom lacked..

Most Likely: #5 Hymm Book 3-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Alternation 9-2 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #8 Ron the Greek 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Nehro 7-2 6th

11th: 76th Arkansas Derby (G1), 3yo, 9f (DD, Super)

Many here desperate for Derby dollars and Bodemeister needs to homer in the 9th inning to assure slot in the gate. Was dead game being bested late by Creative Cause in San Felipe and expect he comes through today under Smitty..

Most Likely: #11 Bodemeister 9-5 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #1 Cozzetti 15-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Isn't He Clever 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Jake Mo 30-1 10th

<$25 P4 Play:

9: 4-7
10: 5-6
11: 11
12: 2-6-10

2x2x1x3 = 12 x $2 = $24

CHARLES TOWN

POST-SCRATCHES

9th: Webb Snyder, 3+, 4.5f (P4, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Immortal Eyes 9-5 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #7 Big Grampa 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Yukon Wildcat 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 U Boat Alley 6-1 7th

10th: Robert Hilton Memorial, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Flashy Dresser 2-1 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #8 Brimstone Island 8-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Trippi's Secret 12-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 He Can Run 6-1 6th

11th: Sugar Maple, F&M-4+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Magical Feeling 2-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #8 Island Bound 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Strike the Moon 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Lady of Greatness 8-1 4th

$1 Exacta (7-8) Paid $13.50
$1 Trifecta (7-8-1) Paid $45.60
$1 Superfecta (7-8-1-2) Paid $95.40

12th: Charles Town Classic (G2), 4+, 9f (DD, Super)

Another compelling edition of this three turner includes last year's winner in Duke of Mischief and the show horse from the 2010 edition, Redding Colliery. Tackleberry, 4th a year ago, returns as well, and after the good comebacker in the Gulfstream Park H. it feels like Olivares has him primed for the $600,000 share. Uh Oh Bango has run at NoCal Fair strips and should be coming late, while Caixa Electronica went 9 panels successfully at Saratoga last summer and could stretch his his ample speed here. Norman Asbjornson would be intriguing if he gets in..

Most Likely: #2 Tackleberry 3-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Uh Oh Bango 4-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Caixa Electronica 8-1 WON ($18.80)
Exotics Use: #3 Mister Mardi Gras 12-1 3rd

<$50 P4 Play:

9: 3-7
10: 5-7-8
11: 7-8
12: 2-3-6-10

2x3x2x4 = $48

$1 Pick 4 (3/5,11,12,13,14/7/6) Paid $118.60

Good luck!
Steve