Derby Trail Forums - 3/24: Turfway (5th-10th); Fair Grounds (P3); Santa Anita (5th-10th)

TURFWAY PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Bail Me Out 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Constantinople 2-1 WON ($3.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Undercover Justice 5-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Sister Pippa 3-1 5th

6th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Fun betting race using the double digit ideas around fave Gorgeous Melody..

Most Likely: #4 Gorgeous Melody 8-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #1 It's Tiffin Time 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Glory Chaser 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Darlin' Diane 30-1 2nd

7th: 19th Hansel, 3yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Magical Season 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Lockout 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Hogy 3-1 WON ($12.40)
Super Add: #10 Thomas Jefferson 5-1 3rd

$2 Exacta (9-3) Paid $35.70
$1 Trifecta (9-3-10) Paid $260.80
$1 Superfecta (9-3-10-5) Paid $868.30

8th: 28th Rushaway, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Will go against the favorites which aren't particularly more appealling than the next half dozen..

Most Likely: #7 Gung Ho 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Bluedacious 10-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Going to Market 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Sky Alert 15-1 5th

@$50 P4 Play:

5: 1-5-7
6: 4
7: 3-5-9
8: 2-3-4-5-6-7

3x1x3x6 = $54 ($27 for .50)

9th: 30th Bourbonette Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Battaglia has the wrong favorite in More Than Love as In Lingerie will be a shorter number and should handle these with aplomb..

Most Likely: #4 IN LINGERIE 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #5 Dancing Solo 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Dixie Jackpot 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 More Than Love 9-5 7th

10th: 41st Spiral (G3), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super, Super Hi-5)

This $500k No. KY meet standard produced Animal Kingdom a year ago and draws an oddball assembly for this edition that sees the top ML choices (Heavy Breathing, Went the Day Well, Handsome Mike) all underlaid. Maker was thoroughly unhappy with John McKee's decisions on Mr. Prankster in the Battaglia and gains Napravnik for this. We won't get 12-1, but he's the right horse to work around at what will almost certainly be an overlay tote. Will swing for fences with a host of prices. On an ATR note, well wishes go out to Johnny D. and his partners with Ill Conceived!

Most Likely: #10 Mr. Prankster 12-1 11th
Best Value: #9 Tizanexpense 15-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Russian Greek 8-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Ill Conceived 8-1 7th
Super/Hi-5: #11 Stealcase 10-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-9-10
8: 2-3-4-5-6-7
9: 4
10: 1-3-4-7-9-10

4x6x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

FAIR GROUNDS

POST-SCRATCHES

<$25 P3 Play:

8: 2-7
9: 5-7
10: 1-2-5

2x2x3 = 12 x $2 = $24

SANTA ANITA PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Good looking set of maidens coming down the hill. Some firsters here are likely OK, but they are hard to take when those that have started appear solid..

Most Likely: #12 Canuletmedowneasy 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Fleet Eagle 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Curahee 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Boat Trip 8-1 WON ($16.00)

6th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Question here is what to do with swift Sadler returnee Chapman's Park?

Most Likely: #6 Close to the Edge 7-2 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #4 Gnarly Dude 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Obsess 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Privilaged 8-1 4th

7th: March Madness, 4+, 9f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Krigger has real chance to take them wire to window on outposted Letsgetitright. Well matched set looking to take Hammerle's roundball trophy..

Best Value: #9 Letsgetitright 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Wild Revenge 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Unusual Jazz 7-2 WON ($7.20)
Super Add: #6 Best Verse 12-1 2nd

8th: 14th Tokyo City Cup (G3), 4+, 12f (P3, DD, Super)

Three-turners on main track typically curious and this is no exception as top three favorites don't look any better than the next four choices. As I said yesterday on ATR, reformed $16k claimer Graeme Crackerjack is a new horse since turning 4 and no reason not to expect as good or better here. Was hoping for better than 6-1, but it's tough to put one by Jon White's sharp linemaking..

Best Value: #2 Graeme Crackerjack 6-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Dynamic Host 8-1 WON ($13.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Coluda 8-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Skipshot 4-1 3rd

9th: Cal-MSW, 3+, 6.5f-T (DD, Super)

This impossible MSW down the hill is brutally positioned in the sequence. Wide open. Pedigree mentions include Indicator (Half to Brother Derek) and Turn On the pumps (Half to Cost of Freedom). Early SCR of #2 Silver Dragon means #13 Soi Phet -- who's eligible for laurels -- gets to participate. On a humorous note is the moniker of #5 Pork Chop, a nickname widely employed around barns for agreeable workmates of good horses..

Best Value: #6 Swift Eagle 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #12 Suances Candy 4-1 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Pork Chop 6-1 4th
Super Add: #13 Soi Phet 5-1 5th

10th: CLM, 4+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #3 Solar Rocket 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #7 Warren's Patron 4-1 5th
Best Value: #12 Zomyslayermrdarcy 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Just Meteor 7-2 4th
Super/Hi-5: #2 Breakmark 20-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (3-12) Paid $27.70
$1 Trifecta (3-12-2) Paid $563.80
$1 Superfecta (3-12-2-6) Paid $4,047.80

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-8-9
8: 2-3-7-8
9: 5-6-12-13
10: 3-7-12

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$.50 Pick 4 (4,8/8/3,12,14/3,4,9) Paid $142.85

Good luck!
Steve