Derby Trail Forums - 3/10: Gulfstream (7th-11th); Santa Anita ($59k C/O)

Biggest opportunity of Friday was missed by a diminishing neck when longest shot on the board (26-1) Cat Man Fu and Dennis Carr just failed to reach loose leader Chilton in the 6th. The winner, himself more than 11-1, was given out on ATR by Brisnet's Ed DeRosa and the exacta we kicked around between the two returned $174 ($1). A little surprised that the P6 was hit in NY with Chilton's win and $29.60 Mess in a Dress taking the 7th. But the rest of the sequence was formful and two winners each took home $14,500. Hope you did OK!

As predicted with Hammer, Santa Anita went unhit Friday and $59k starts the pot today. There is also a $55k C/O at Golden Gate. Swale, Tampa Bay Derby and San Felipe are all intriguing for the 3yo's today.

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-T/24' (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Old Time Hockey 3-1: Note winner from last tries TAM Derby.. WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #1 Monarchic 5-1: Sis Mrs. Lindsey a Gr. 1 turf victress.. 2nd
Next Best: #9 Ragazzi 12-1: Half Little Belle won Ashland on synth.. 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Gnostic 20-1: Expect better as Mott adds hood 2nd start.. 5th

8th: Gulfstream Park H. (G2), 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Short but nice cast as Jackson Bend moves forward from Hal's Hope season opening win. Gets to survey landscape from outside and is strictly one to beat. Defending race winner Tackleberry comes back from long break and working smoothly for return. May come back running based on strong series of Calder drills including eye-popping :47.1 last Saturday..

Most Likely: #6 Jackson Bend 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Tackleberry 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Mucho Macho Man 8-5 WON ($3.20)

9th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-T/84' (P3, DD, Super)

Trickier division of the two events with 7th..

Most Likely: #10 Bridge Loan 3-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Double Crossing 8-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Valley Stream 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Mr E Phillip 20-1 5th

10th: Swale (G3), 3yo, 7f (DD, Super)

The longer I've looked at this group the more quizical they appear. There's no shortage of pace lined up, so the inclination is to look for stalker-closers and Bahamian Squall, Fawkes brother of Apriority, fits the bill. Both of Good Morning Diva's races have been 'key' and I'll be be surprised if he doesn't give a good account of himself at a nice number. He's also the field's lone winner at the trip..

Best Value: #6 Bahamian Squall 12-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Good Morning Diva 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Ever So Lucky 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Quick Wit 10-1 7th

11th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7.5f-T/24' (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Dodging 5-1 7th
Best Value: #10 Back Room Deal 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Dateful Gred 3-1 WON ($8.60)
Exotics Use: #7 Volcano Run 2-1 3rd

<$150 P5 Play:

7: 1-3
8: 1-2-6
9: 6-10
10: 6-7-10
11: 1-6-7-10

2x3x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-6
9: 6-10
10: 1-2-5-6-7-10
11: 1-6-7-10

3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$59k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #3 Jim's Decision 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Spicy Beau 8-1 WON ($17.00)
Next Best: #2 Megaride 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Seek the Light 3-1 9th

6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Stormberg 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Depriciable 6-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #2 Mr. Make Believe 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Kumiva 4-1 3rd

7th: MSW, 3yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Only one in this cast has made starts and a number of the rest are nicely bred. Splendid Fortune (Gian't Causeway) is out of the excellent MG2SW mare House of Fortune; My Selection (Badge of Silver) is half to KMc stake turfer Soldat; Jolly Days (Street Cry) dropped by excellent G3SW Hour of Justice and Marinda (Scat Daddy) is out of Team Valor G3SW Bella Bella Bella..

Most Likely: #5 My Selection 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #8 Marinda 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Splendid Fortune 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Fly Solo 6-1 8th

8th: China Doll, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Excellent set for this 10th running of race named by Hammerle for quiet Grateful Dead tune. Respect the shorter numbers but will work around 6-1 stretchout Vionnet who seems progressive..

Best Value: #5 Vionnet 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Indigo River 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Lady of Shamrock 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Super Add: #9 She Spirit di Su 6-1 8th

9th: San Felipe (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Race lost slight edge with injury departure of Out of Bounds, but many of the Cali Derby Trailers are on hand to make this mighty entertaining. Race hinges to great extent on decision of Carava to keep American Act in race or head for Sunland Derby. His exit would leave Bodemeister alone on lead and difficult to beat. And Bodemeister may be difficult to beat even if American Act stays in the race. Beyond that, there doesn't seem to be any implausable ideas for filling out the superfecta.

Most Likely: #2 Bodemeister 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Blingo 8-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Creative Cause 5-2 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #5 Groovin' Solo 20-1 10th

10th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Best Value: #4 Zander 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Already There 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #11 Warren's Wesley 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Master Rudy 5-1 4th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Dr. Evil 3-1 3rd

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 3-7
6: 2-4-7
7: 5
8: 3-5
9: 1-2
10: 4-7-11

2x3x1x2x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 ($1) P4 Play:

7: 5
8: 2-3-5
9: 1-2-5-6-7
10: 4-7-11

1x3x5x3 = $45 ($22.50 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (5/2/7/2,3,7,9) Paid $100.70

Good luck!
Steve