Derby Trail Forums - 3/3: Aqueduct (1st-11th): Santa Anita (1st-11th; $63k C/O)

Lots of nice-priced winners Friday but took agonizing photo beat in 8th when favorite failed to finish after striking lead. Still brought home nice returns with big P3 anchored by Jammer stake winner Dontbeshy I'll Buy, a new horse on dirt. Hope everyone did well. Huge day ahead on both coasts!

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: NY/ALW, 4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Fun start to terrific card with virtually everyone lined up capable of being in the exotics. Hope the weather can hold up, but rain appears certain to at least noon (Weather Underground for Ozone Park)..

Best Value: #6 Mr. Vantastic 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Idle American 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Moonlight Song 7-2 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #8 Cap the Moment 10-1 9th

2nd: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Weak bunch so firsters (#6/#10) shouldn't have to be particularly special to score..

Best Value: #10 Wes Vegas 5-1 DNF
Next Best: #1 Hook and Lateral 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #11 Purple Rico 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Cricky'sgoldeneyes 4-1 5th

3rd: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

If Lunar Victory runs back to effort 4 weeks ago, he can't be beaten here. If he regresses off that big performance to his form from earlier in the winter -- a possibility -- it opens things up to the next half dozen..

Most Likely: #9 Lunar Victory 8-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #1 Cosmic King 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Congo 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Cribnote 8-1 3rd

4th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e A. Dutrow entry 7-5 WON ($3.20)/3rd
Next Best: #2 Socialsaul 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Manteca 4-1 2nd

5th: 72nd Top Flight (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

If there's a time to beat a horse like It's Tricky in a spot, it's first off the break. Unfortunately for that line of thinking, KMc terrific off layoffs, filly loves it wet and has won over the strip..

Most Likely: #4 It's Tricky 1-4 WON ($2.70)
Best Value: #5 Love and Pride 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Delightful Mary 4-1 5th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-6-10-11
3: 9 (1-8)
4: 1-2
5: 4

Main: 4x1x2x1 = 8 x $4 = $32
Backup: 4x2x2x1 = 16 X $1 = $16

$2 Pick 4 (1-7/9-1/3/6-4) Paid $33.60 x 2 = $67.20

6th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD, Super)

KMc-Shadwell 2nd time starter Al Aqsa had disasterous debut in highly rated GP set. Castro a hard to fathom 15 for 25 ($3.16) for barn this winter..

Best Value: #9 Al Aqsa 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Desert Storm 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Morgan's Guerilla 3-1 WON ($4.90)
Super Add: #1 Quarto 12-1 6th

7th: CLM, 4+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Watch for SCR's here as the AE #13 & #14 are highly possible should either or both get in..

NOTE: #13 He's a Scrooge does draw in..

Most Likely: #5 Galaxy Kat 3-1 WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #3 Quarry of Gold 5-1 6th
Best Value: #8 Alejandro 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #13 He's a Scrooge 5-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Heart of the Derby 10-1 7th

8th: NY-MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

NOTE: #13 Pegasus Diamond & #14 Caught by You draw in..

Most Likely: #6 Sing Dixie Sing 5-2 WON ($5.90)
Next Best: #9 Satin Sheets 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #14 SCR
Super Add: #2 Flea Flicker 3-1 2nd

9th: 37th Tom Fool H. (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Caleb's Posse returns and runs smack into serious looking KMc late bloomer Emcee. Von Hemel can certainly have him ready, but the pace may not be so hot that it provides him best chance for closing kick..

Most Likely: #4 Emcee 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Royal Currier 10-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Caleb's Posse 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Calibrachoa 2-1 WON ($9.40)

10th: 60th Gotham (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

$400k brings Derby Trail hopefuls out of the woodwork, all chasing 2yo Champion Hansen. He's the likely winner, but if he faulters, this gets ripped wide open. Lots of intriguing price options including pair of Mid-Atlantic players from savvy Grove and Hamilton..

Most Likely: #12 Hansen 6-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #11 Done Talking 20-1 10th
Next Best: #4 Pretension 20-1 5th
Exotics Use: #13 Tiger Walk 12-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Raconteur 15-1 7th

11th: CLM/N1Y, 4+, 6f (Super)

NOTE: #13 Pistols at Dawn & #14 Dahlgren draw in..

Best Value: #3 Mitigation 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Digger Karakorum 6-1 WON ($8.20)
Exotics Use: #13 Pistols at Dawn 5-2 4th
Super Add: #10 Swinging at Siro's 7-2 3rd

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 6-9-14
9: 4
10: 4-7-8-9-10-11-12-13
11: 3-5-10-13

3x1x8x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

SANTA ANITA PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 4+, 5.5f (P5, P3, Place Pick All, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Pacific Avenue 3-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Baraja de Oro 5-2 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Rino U 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Jack Reacher 7-2 4th

2nd: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Stirred Up 9-5 WON ($8.60)
Next Best: #3 Holy Candy 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Animaux Del Viento 20-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Cat's Enough 4-1 7th

3rd: CLM, 4+, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

What can you say about 10yo Crossing the Line? Beat me last time and hard to argue with 4 weeks later..

Most Likely: #4 Crossing the Line 2-1
Next Best: #5 Mr. Bossy Pants 5-2 WON
Exotics Use: #3 Muny 7-2
Super Add: #7 Sky Cape 9-2

4th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Mile High Magic 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #3 Maverick's Gun 6-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Stratify 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Eaton Hall 5-2 4th

5th: OC/N1X, 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Graeme Crackerjack 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Vet SCR
Exotics Use: #5 Joy Boy 8-1 WON ($30.80)
Super Add: #2 Ultimate Decision 4-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-3
3: 4-5
4: 3-6-7
5: 2-5-7-10/SCR

3x2x3x4 = $72 ($36 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (2-ALL-6-5) Paid $151.20 x 2 = $302.40

<$50 P5 Play:

1: 1-5-6
2: 2-3
3: 4-5
4: 3-6-7
5: 7-10/SCR

3x2x2x3x2 = 72 x .50 = $36

6th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$63k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #6 Lobshot 9-2 4th
Best Value: #5 Lake Maracaibo 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Swingaway 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Special Charm 6-1 6th

7th: OC/N1X, 4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #11 Hooray for Hollywood 4-1 WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #2 Da Ruler 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Via Verde 6-1 11th
Super Add: #6 Scofield Barracks 8-1 3rd

8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Ten Devils 5-1 WON ($10.80)
Next Best: #10 Twin Six 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Lucky Rave 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Cat Talk 6-1 4th

9th: 30th Las Virgenes (G1), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Excellent cast of soph gals on their way to the SA Oaks, and Princess Arabella, Mamma Kimbo and more not even in this. So many people seem to be lining up behind Eden's Moon that you have to look elsewhere a bit and closer Killer Graces should get her opportunity to run them down..

Best Value: #4 Killer Graces 5-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Reneesgotzip 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Eden's Moon 9-5 WON ($7.00)
Super Add: #8 Open Water 20-1 3rd

10th: 12th Kilroe Mile (G1), 4+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Would love to be able to single Mr. Commons in multis as he may be as good as he needs to be, but there are too many rock solid lawn milers here to high wire it through this leg. Imposing, but Jeranimo, Compari, Willyconker and even Jimmy Simms offer value..

Most Likely: #1 Mr. Commons 4-5 2nd
Next Best: #5 Jeranimo 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Compari 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Willyconker 8-1 WON ($23.20)

11th: 75th Santa Anita H. (G1), 4+, 10f (Super, Super Hi-5)

What this famed event lacks in premium quality handicap division runners is more than offset by sheer quantity of professional racehorses. Like Eden's Moon in the Las Virgenes, Ron the Greek is such a 'now' horse, that it makes you nervous..

Best Value: #3 Ron the Greek 6-1 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #2 Ultimate Eagle 5-2 10th
Exotics Use: #10 Norvsky 6-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Uh Oh Bango 6-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #7 Fiddlers Afleet 50-1 9th

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 5-6-9-10
7: 2-11
8: 3
9: 4-5-7
10: 1-5
11: 2-3

4x2x1x3x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-4-10
9: 4-5-7
10: 1-3-4-5
11: 2-3-10

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (3-5-3-3) Paid $1,003.80

Good luck!
Steve