Derby Trail Forums - 2/12: Aqueduct (4th-9th); Santa Anita ($135k C/O)

Hope everyone enjoyed the excellent Donn Day card at Gulfstream Saturday and made the most of the opportunities despite the less than perfect track conditions. Highlights included thrilling Donn win by top tab Hymm Book who rewarded your confidence with a $15.00 win mutuel. Although Mission Impazible got in the way of my triples (with Redeemed and Where's Sterling 3rd/4th), earlier troikas in the 2nd ($107) and 4th ($226), as well as the early P4 ($150), assured a positive result for the day. But the strong afternoon closed out with a bang via A sweep of the exotics in the wild nightcap when 'Best Value' My Schatzi scored at 9-1 to key the $105 exacta, $688 tri and $2,535 super.

The day's lone tactical error was singling Denomination in the Suwannee as opposed to Get Stormy in the GP Turf. As I even brought up Friday on radio and in print Saturday, off going regularly makes front runners tough to reel in and Get Stormy frequently is allowed to loaf on the lead for whatever reason and I failed to capitalize on that concept. Hope everyone did great.. Sizeable carryover at Santa Anita and nice card at the Big A! And don't forget to toss in a Derby Future Wager by 6p tonight...

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NY-Mr. G.J.G., 4+, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Inherit the Gold 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Stormy's Majesty 5-1 WON ($12.80)
Next Best: #5 Groomed for Victory 3-1 -
Exotics Use: #3 Star of New York 12-1 3rd

5th: CLM-$10k, F&M-4+, 1m-70y (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Two Moons 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Late SCR
Next Best: #5 Crafty N P 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Vanaema 30-1 8th

6th: NY-MDN CLM/$16k, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Half Lucky 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Stanley Kowalsky 10-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Sunshine Valentino 2-1 WON ($5.10)
Exotics Use: #4 That's for Sure 6-1 4th

7th: OC-$25k/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Nothing clever here though note how well Kenneally's NY string is going (21/7-4-4) as he sends 5-1 Lady Lindy here. And actually, he's going good in FL too (25/6-5-4 w/o Battle Hardened's TAM win!)..

Most Likely: #7 Cash for Clunkers 3-1 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #2 Lady Lindy 5-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Lynette 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Royal Sighting 6-1 4th

8th: NY-Windswept Wings, 3yo-F, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Yes Peggy Jane will take some beating, but you've been watching these types get bested regularly, haven't you? Beautiful But Blue and I Bet Toni Knows are certainly in the zip code if the Asmussen Kafwain filly -- who has every advantage -- fails to fire..

Most Likely: #3 Peggy Jane 3-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Beautiful But Blue 6-1 WON ($11.20)
Next Best: #7 I Bet Toni Knows 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Hot Splash 12-1 8th

9th: NY-MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (Super)

This is a fun betting race if we can keep the short priced Jimmy Jerkens fave out of the top slot. Donk capable of popping with a firster and I'm guessing based on overlapping worktabs that Justa Country Girl has been sparing in the mornings with stakes filly Corderosa. Englehart (Caught by You) a gaudy 5 of 8 ($3.69) with first Lasix runners while Bond (Bonita Sonata) 3 of 6 ($3.22) with second time starters of late..

Best Value: #1 Justa Country Girl 12-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Sing Dixie Sing 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Caught by You 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Bonita Sonata 10-1 5th

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-3-4-8
7: 2-4-6-7
8: 3
9: 1-6-7-8-11-12

4x4x1x6 = 96 x .50 = $48

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM-$22.5k/N2L, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$135k C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #3 Geniality 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Smil'n From Above 12-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Carousel 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Woodman's Lass 8-1 6th

5th: CLM-$12.5k, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Classy Attraction 4-1 WON ($6.00)
Best Value: #6 Lisa Lulu 9-2 4th
Next Best: #8 All the Love 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Queenie Marini 7-2 2nd

6th: Cal-MSW, F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Abella 4-1 WON ($7.00)
Best Value: #8 Vonn Nez 5-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Angel's Moon 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Sea John's Spirit 9-2 9th

7th: Cal-OC-$25k/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Lil Miss Macky 5-2 4th
Best Value: #1 My Brite Caroline 8-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #5 Melissa Rose 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Maya Angelina 3-1 5th

8th: 3rd Sweet Life, 3yo-F, 6.5f-T (DD, Super)

Terrific little down-the-hill stake for 3yo gals. It's pretty amazing that Vionnet received her diploma on the unique course considering her dam Cambiocorsa did the same and was nearly unbeatable on it (10/8-0-1). Then there is Cambiocorsa's full brother to mention in this discussion, California Flag who won the BC Turf Sprint and 3 editions of the G3 Morvich (2008, 2009, 2011) on the slope!

Most Likely: #2 Rowdy Gal 4-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Vionnet 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Indigo River 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #3 She Spirit di Su 3-1 7th

9th: S/ALW, 3yo, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

How solid a single is Pulpit's Express in the nightcap? Note Brad Free's Formulator nugget: Mike Mitchell has an exceptional record with horses stretching out following a maiden sprint win. Since fall 2008, Mitchell is 6-for-12 with maiden-winning stretchouts. The one horse that could be interesting as an alternative is the first time Hollendorfer on the outside that adds first Lasix and receives 5# with hot-ridding Eswan Flores..

Most Likely: #6 Pulpit's Express 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #13 Arathorn 5-1 11th
Best Value: #8 Go to the Pulpit 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Yankee Dan 10-1 8th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 3-5-8
5: 6-8-9
6: 7
7: 1-4
8: 2-3-4-5
9: 6

3x3x1x2x4x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

$2 P6 (1/9/7/1/5,6/1,6,7) Paid $285.20 (5OF6) x 3 = $855.60

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-7-8-9
7: 1-4-5
8: 2-3-4-5
9: 6-13

4x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

$0.50 P4 (7/1/5,6/1,6,7) Paid $160.60

Good luck!
Steve