Borel
 

The rail was not dead at CD yesterday -- and the track was wet -- a simple formula for Borel magic going back many years at CD.

He only had two rides all day -- and not a single ride in the Breeders Cup. In his first mount - he finished 2nd at 18/1 on a horse who should have been 180/1. And he easily won a small stakes race with an overbet 5/1 shot with his only other mount.

Jockeys are a tremendously overrated factor (almost a 100% non-factor at this level) -- and Borel is basically a fairly weak sack of oats who does not always audible well in-race (making him average at best at this level) ... but he's the only guy in the entire room who is a true positive difference maker at that track -- so long as they don't Borel proof the inside path. Statistics with sample sizes in the thousands of races going back more than a half dozen years bear that out. He's also done as well in big events at Churchill as he has done in lower class racing -- so the "he can't rise to the situation" BS is obviously not an issue.

Lamest thread of the day candidate? Sure. But after watching replays of yesterdays races ... I think Borel still managed to win the award of 'riding star of the day on dirt' without even having a single ride in a BC event yesterday.

Who is your most likely winner today?

I think his winner on the 5-1 shot is what made the early P5. The payout was insane for the horses that won in the sequence.

Borel's horse was 12-1 morning line, after seeing the P5 payout, it was apparent he was not 5-1 in the P5.

He was 8-1 before the gate scratch of Bafferts horse

There you go. I wasn't watching the board to see the changes after the scratch.

Borels win yesterday was a fair price. Though his recent form wasnt much...his last 2 dirt races at CD was competitive. 2 for 2 on CD dirt with a combined 13 length wins and those efforts tower above at any other track he was at before. Horse for course scenario.