Theories on the lessening superiority of top class males VS 2yo's, claimers,& females
 

The ability gap between the superiority of older males has shrunk VS virtually every single type of horse. Anyone who has a bunch of result charts from a bunch of different time periods in history can see this.

I'm wondering why this is.

Why have top 2-year-olds become closer in ability to top older males? I'm guessing because of an emphsis on breeding for speed and precocity and the popularity of 2yo in training sales over the last 15 years.

Why have claiming horses become closer in ability to top older males? I'm guessing because of slots tracks and the fact that claiming races are often dominated by high percentage training wizards. If the Juan Carlos G's, Jamie Ness's, Jeff Mullins', Rick Dutrow's, Beattie's, etc. all were removed from the game -- perhaps you would see the bridge in ability between the type of horses winning claiming races and winning top class races for males widen.

Also - slots tracks. Those rich purses and oppertunities for claiming horses weren't there before.

Here's a tougher one, though. How have top class females bridged the gap so well between top class males? There has to be more to it than 'the males just all suck' I would think.

Over the past few years -- have we seen advancements in terms of products that help fillies and mares with sexual health and organization to keep them in peak shape and from going out of condition when the times and climate aren't right?

Something like that could explain a bridging between top females and top males -- but it would also have to be reflected at all different class levels.

When I get some time -- I'm going to look over the last ten decades or so -- and compare males with females class for class -- from the highest class races to comparable lower class racing and look to see how the ability spreads have changed.

Perhaps the gap between males and females being closer is just a perceived one, as it wasn't until pretty recently in this country that females even ran against males more than rarely.

Then again, Indian Charlie sires really good fillies, which is probably the main reason.

* Favorite Trick ran a 101 Beyer when he won the 1997 BC Juvenile -- Skip Away a 120 in the 1997 Breeders Cup Classic. Both races were same day and same variant ... Favorite Trick is the only 2yo since Secretariat to win Horse of the Year at age 2.


* Arazi ran a 101 Beyer when he oblierated Bertrando in the 1991 Juvenile -- Black Tie Affiar won the BC Classic with a 120 Beyer. Same day and same variant.

In both cases -- the older male was +19

Here are the last four horses to win the BC Juvie on dirt:

'10 - Uncle Mo - 108
'07 – War Pass – 113
'06 - Street Sense – 108
'05 – Stevie Wonderboy – 104


Add 19 to those ... and you're talking about a 2010 BC Classic with a 127 Beyer, a 2007 Breeders Cup Classic with a 132 Beyer, a 2006 Breeders Cup Classic with a 127 Beyer, and a 2005 Breeders Cup Classic with a 123 Beyer.

Instead of 127 we got 111. Instead of 132 we got 119. Instead of 127 we got 116. Instead of 123 we got 112.

If you believe the recent older males are as good as Skip Away and Black Tie Affair -- you also have to believe that Uncle Mo, War Pass, Street Sense, and Stevie Wonderboy would have all run Arazi and Favorite Trick completely off the TV Screen.

Good horses aren't given a chance to naturally develop would be the logical culprit.

With a concentration of most of the top male talent in a few barns and with owners far more focused on the Triple Crown series (Derby mostly) far more horses are pushed beyond where they should be trying to get on the Derby trail.
When a trainer starts the year with 30-100 well bred colts he is far less apt to take his time or back off of one when he has ample replacements. Owners are far more willing to "sacrifice" some horses if it means getting one or more on the trail. How many horses are more or less ruined (at least in the short term) by this method of weeding out horses? Who knows but a lot of these wind up being the claiming horses Doug speaks of in his first post, just it is 3 years later, after they have enough physical infirmities that only juice trainers can get that talent to flash itself on occasion. Look at a horse like Flat Out. He went from a decent MSW win in his 2nd start in Dec right to a 1 mile stake. He was talented enough to make the jump but 2 starts later he was in a tough Derby prep going 1 1/8th. He wasn't strong enough to make it. At least he wasnt bred well enough in a weak stallion market to be sent to stud and after a year and a half off he was back. Credit his owner for giving him that much time and not giving up when he was reinjured to some degree after the comeback race. How many horses can make it back after 1 1/2 years? How many owners are patient enough to pay the bills that long? This is a rarity but look at his pp's and you see his development from a 2yo maiden late in the year and he was still developing this summer as a 5 yo.

Trainers win percentage is also a factor as horses aren't allowed to develop while racing but are asked to for top efforts every time with races spaced out and a lot of hard works in between. This makes for a lot of 6 race careers.

Cannon Shell has it right.. very few "great" 3yo's are even making it to their 4yo racing season anymore.

When the talent pool is void of the very best because trainers are more interested in winning % and immediate results, and owners are more interested in just having a starter in the gate at the Derby than patiently developing a multiple Grade 1 winner, you get what we have now..

I agree with Cannon Shell and pba. I think a lot has to do with how they are developed and raced. Everytime one shows a hint of real talent, they start hiding them and spacing their races and the horses aren't allowed to learn to become real racehorses. I believe that they, like other athletes, have to be conditioned for the tasks they are being asked to do and just as practice doesn't do it for players but games do, workouts don't do it for horses but races do.

There's also the fact that the high majority of the 3yos that are running numbers that would suggest they could be 120+ type runners as older horses are retired before they get the chance. What we are then left with are the slower horses moving to the highest levels to fill the voids. For these horses, running 110 is about the right level from where they started out, with natural expected progression with age and experience.