Derby Trail Forums - 9/3: Saratoga (Day 37; Woodward/Forego; $64k C/O)

Excellent start to the closing weekend festivities at the Spa, with $14 River Fancy and $19 Elusive Pearl proving out especially nicely. Hope everyone did well! $64k P6 carryover adds to intrigue of final Saturday, a slate already peppered with 3 G1 stakes and several terrific Maiden events. Should be a furious finish to what has been a fabulous season at Saratoga...

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: Paris Opera, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Nice way to start the final Saturday card, as little overnight stake includes U.S. debut of Deluxe, Juddmonte's 4yo daughter of legendary broodmare Hasili (Dansili, Cacique, Champs Elysees, Banks Hill, Intercontinental, Heat Haze, et al)..

Best Value: #2 Hit It Rich 8-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Sugar Again 4-1 WON ($12.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Deluxe 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Ultimate Class 8-1 7th

2nd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

One of the days most interesting races with some notable pedigree highlights featured..

Best Value: #8 Scandalicious 12-1: Sneaky on lawn where dam excelled.. 12th
Next Best: #3 Super Saturday 6-1: Half to fast Despite the Odds, turf star Chopinina.. 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Punctual Jeff 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 O'Prado Again 6-1 7th

3rd: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

As always with these state-bred lawn route ALW's, supremely balanced and maddeningly fun wagering opp. Pick your prices and wheel/box away!

Best Value: #4 Skip's Prospect 10-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Oatka Idas Rose 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #7 Lady's Lunar Luck 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #12 Lemon Tiger 3-1 5th

4th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

And here I thought the 2nd race had pedigrees. Among others, Angel Penna unveils Farish homebred Stolen Glance here, a son of 2003 Epsom Oaks winner Casual Look (Red Ransom). Majestic Man from Oxley/Ward is out of La Cucina who has produced sire Sir Cherokee and excellent Miss Isella. Za Approval from Mrs. Weber is half to her wonderful Revved Up and BC Mile winner Miesque's Approval. Value tab King Haigler should leap forward on lawn being a half to rock solid turfers Jimmy Simms and Well Monied. There are more players from the breeding perspective, but I don't have time to get to them all!

Best Value: #3 King Haigler 15-1 11th
Next Best: #2 Za Approval 5-1 WON ($9.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Bluegrass Summer 15-1 8th
Super Add: #12 McCarroll 20-1 7th

5th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Aquifolia 5-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Earnings Release 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Dancing Tiz 7-2 WON ($11.40)
Super Add: #6 Feels Good 12-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

This is a nearly impossible sequence. I'll try to sneak a winner in on the opening leg before widening the net..

2: 3-4-7-8
3: 3-4-7
4: 2-3
5: 1-2-4-5-6-7

4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Big SCR of Manresa Road & draw in of Dahess..

Best Value: #6 More Than Lucky 5-1 5th
Next Best: #13 Dahess 4-1 WON ($7.30)
Exotics Use: #4 Herecomeseveryman 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #12 Solid d'Oro 10-1 3rd

7th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Invocation 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Africanist 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1e Darley entry 6-1 WON ($14.20)/10th
Super Add: #6 Hierro 4-1 5th

8th: 64th Personal Ensign (G1), F&M-3+, 10f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Super Espresso 3-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Ask the Moon 2-1 WON ($5.90)
Exotics Use: #3 Pachattack 9-2 2nd

9th: 32nd Forego (G1), 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Excellent and eclectic cast for this summer-ending sprint standard. Rule by Night may is a bit of an ouchy type, but is potentially fastest if right, with November '10 Groovy win this trip the model for success today. He's drawn ideally and will be one of the longest numbers on the board..

Best Value: #9 Rule by Night 15-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Jersey Town 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Regal Ransom 6-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Hamazing Destiny 5-1 4th

10th: 58th Woodward (G1), 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Solid cast top to bottom for this, and enhanced by attempt of Havre de Grace to best the boys. She and Flat Out look to simply be better than the rest right now..

Most Likely: #7 Flat Out 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Havre de Grace 8-5 WON ($6.50)
Best Value: #3 Giant Oak 8-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Mission Impazible 10-1 4th

11th: CLM, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Keechi Bullet 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 One Cool Dude 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Ninety Five South 3-1 7th
Super Add: #11 Fiery Rebel 12-1 6th

12th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (Super)

Most Likely: #10 Saratoga Snacks 7-2 WON ($4.30)
Next Best: #8 Parachute Coney 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Thewizardofnassau 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Wild Exploit 20-1 6th

<$150 P6 Play:

7: 3-9
8: 2-3-5
9: 4-8-9
10: 6-7
11: 5-7
12: 10

2x3x3x2x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

9: 1-4-5-7-8-9
10: 2-6-7
11: 1-5-7-11
12: 8-10

6x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve