Derby Trail Forums - 8/14: Saratoga (Day 21; Adirondack; $76k C/O)

Threat of heavy weather this afternoon (Saratoga Weather Underground forecast) for carryover sequence of $76.5k precipitated Saturday by $134.00 Frank Martin nightcap shocker Ess Shape. The quirky maiden-laden slate was a bit of a roller coaster ride all afternoon actually, with plenty of opportunities to score with even the most random ideas.

Was able to cover the quad expense in the chalky early P4 ($86 back on $72 play), but got 10-1 in the triple utilizing the inverted key approach. As has been broached recently, the play takes logical players -- here Imaging (2-1), Corporate Jungle (5-2), Unbridled Ocean (8-1) -- in the top slots over prices -- Simbamangu (10-1), Santo Gato (20-1), Clear Note (28-1). The 3x2x3 wager was $18, and when Corporate Jungle, Imagining & Santo Gato came under the wire, the $1 punt returned $176. I didn't get a bet in, but a similar approach in the 8th had the potential to bring in $574 with Karakorum Legend (9-2), Unaccountable (7-2) & Bergerac (21-1)! As I've talked and written about, I'm finding this wager intriguing, and have now hit 4-5 for good money. The Spa turf races seem like the perfect place to play with this concept.

Overall it was a good day with another couple of modest hits, and I hope everyone did well and enjoyed Saratoga, Arlington, Del Mar or whatever else you were watching! Del Mar has a $140k+ carryover themselves today, and the weather there is certainly going to be less volatile than here!

SARATOGA

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Brilliant Future 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Dreamingly 9-2 WON ($10.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Ostensibly 6-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Storm Palm 6-1 6th

2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Bargain Blitz 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Wait Til Dawn 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Isra 3-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Remarkable Moon 10-1 7th

3rd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Lender's Way 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Proud and Charming 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Wildcat's Smile 5-2 WON ($6.10)
Exotics Use: #1e Broman entry 7-2 2nd/7th

4th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Grand Strategy 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Trulee Scrappin' 7-2 WON ($7.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Won Fast Bullet 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Whateverittakes 10-1 4th

5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$76k P6 C/O starts here..

Best Value: #3 Carson Bandit 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Strolldownbroadway 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Diceman 4-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Rudy Rudy Rudy 3-1 WON ($7.90)

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-5-8
3: 2-5-8
4: 1-3-5-6
5: 3-6-7-9

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Awesome Arceno 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Pistols at Dawn 8-5 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Skinny Peter 6-1 6th

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Delightful Magic 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Stopshoppingmaria 2-1 WON ($5.30)
Exotics Use: #7 Book Review 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Terralba 12-1 6th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Glory in Motion 9-2 5th
Next Best: #7 Australis Princess 5-1 WON ($9.20)
Exotics Use: #3 Lemon Tiger 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Nurse Dolce 8-1 4th

9th: 95th Adirondack (G2), 2yo-F, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #5 My Miss Aurelia 6-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #4 Millionreasonswhy 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 New Wave 10-1 4th

10th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #3 City Scamper 10-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Drinksonthehouse 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Seattle Dynasty 8-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Bella Silver 12-1 9th

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 3-6
6: 4-5-6
7: 1-4-7-8
8: 4
9: 4-5
10: 3-9

2x3x4x1x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-7-8
8: 3-4-7
9: 1-4-5
10: 2-3-9-10

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve