8/10: Saratoga (Day 17; $232k C/O)
 

$232k Double Carryover available to kick off Week 4 of the stand as quirky Monday winners scuttled all sextet punts and many smaller sequence multis as well...


SARATOGA


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Brown slips Silver Timber into softest spot he's seen in ages. Can understand those playing against, but even at 8, he should still be able to handle these if close to best..

Most Likely: #5 Silver Timber 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Strong Impact 5-1 4th
Best Value: #8 Hot Money 15-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Pegasus Tommy D. 6-1 6th


2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)

Curious and weak-looking group..

Best Value: #3 Mayville 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 I'd Lie 3-1 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Trashi Diva 4-1 4th


3rd: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 D' Bulldog 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Tackle 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 War Ballad 8-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Black Diablo 6-1 3rd


4th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Vexor 5-1 WON ($8.20)
Next Best: #7 Raconteur 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Seeker 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Elusive Story 4-1 2nd


5th: Waya, F&M-3+, 12f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$232k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #2 Snow Top Mountain 5-2 4th
Next Best: #8 Dyani 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Emerald Beach 6-1 WON ($14.00)
Super Add: #5 Gold d'Oro 8-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-6-7-8
3: 5-6-7-8
4: 2-5-7
5: 2-4-8

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Need an Angel 4-1 WON ($5.50)
Next Best: #9 Fortheloveof Anna 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 SCR


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3 , DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Cosmic King 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Storm Galileo 6-1 7th
Next Best: #3 The Man Uptown 9-2 WON ($7.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Ahgogo 8-1 4th


8th: CLM, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Dawly 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #6 Tap Attack 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Goodtimehadbyall 7-2 3rd


9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9.5f-T (DD, Super)

Balanced and high quality event..

Most Likely: #5 Colonialism 3-1 WON ($9.20)
Best Value: #7 Ducduc 6-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Distant Sky 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 En Fuego 9-2 2nd


10th: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Turn Up the Music 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Cincinnati Kid 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 What's the Record 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Hershel 4-1 9th


@$150 P6 Play:

5: 2
6: 3-9
7: 5-9
8: ALL
9: 5
10: 1-2-3-6

1x2x2x5x1x4 = 80 x $2 = $160


<$75 P4 Play:

Let's swing for fences by trying to get a single of Colonialism home..

7: 1-2-3-5-6-9
8: ALL
9: 5
10: 1-2-3-4-6

6x5x1x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

$.50 P4 (3-3-5-4) Paid $93.25


Good luck!
Steve

SAR SCR/CHG'S

Huge SCR of #7 Tarrip (3-1) out of the 5th. Other races impacted by changes as well...

Only 1 horse scratches out of the 10th with 16 horses? :zz:

Waiting to see if any rain falls during the early afternoon.

Only need to bet the 1 and 6 in this one :)

Dawly is the type of favorite you're supposed to bet against, even with the scratch of the main speed. The field he beat last time was incredibly soft, he is likely better at 6fs and there are some respectable horses in here. You don't want to leave him off a Pick 6 for serious money but I'll bet to beat him in the Pick 4. I like Goodtimehadbyall and Sam Sparkle.

Steve,

In the 10th, you use writethatdown, which is the 7 and is scratched. You have listed as the #8, and use the #8 in your P4. In the same race, any thoughts on the 15 Piecesofmonlight, which as of now hasn't scratched?

Thanks as always, and BOL with the card!!

I hadn't finished with the changes/adjustments.

Done now. I wasn't super confident with the day's events to begin with, but after the SCR's, I'm completely uneasy with the whole card.

G/L!

IMMEDIATE EDIT!

Hot Money gives me a renewed hope for the day's endeavors! LOL...

Another masterful day!!

Congrats and thanks as always.:tro:

Thx Larry.. My initial feel was that it was kind of an odd day, and it bore out. Had lots of good notions but didn't really make make money off of them. Really would have liked Cincinnati Kid to get past Obviously Tuesday in the nightcap... Hope you and anyone playing along did well!