Derby Trail Forums - 7/17: Belmont Park ($46k Madatory Pay C/O)

$22 winner to start P4 at Belmont quashed hopes and helped trigger closing day madatory pay carryover ($46k), but Colonial proved lucrative later in the day via nice VA Oaks triple and overlaid Air Support in the VA Derby. Tried to get Wyomia (6-1) home in the Oaks, but obvious Excited (5-2) overhauled her in the stretch to get the win while Summer Savory (5-1) snuck up the rail to be second. The tri came back a nice $118.90 when Dynamic Holiday was made a curious favorite slightly over the Pletcher-Tabor winner.

Air Support was a delightful 13-2 ($15.80 win tote) in the Derby, with Street Game (5th as 3-1 favorite), King Congie (6th at 9-2) and Crimson China (7th at 11-2) all taking far more money than I thought warranted. As noted Saturday, despite being bested by Banned and Street Game in his last pair of stakes tries, Air Support had a developing line and was a prime play as they went to the gate, and received an excellent, patient, rail-skimming ride by Alex Solis. The 3yo turf division continues to produce great races among the solid cast, and you can really project more rivalries among these and the rest of the lawn set the rest of thesummer and beyond...

With a lot yet to do at Saratoga in preparation for opening, hadn't intended to play Sunday unless there was a carry on the meet-enders at New York or Hollywood. Sure enough... Ideas below. Hope you did well Saturday! ATR back live Monday!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Tough way to start sequence with a lot of weak sisters..

Most Likely: #6 Cori's Mint Julep 2-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Bayshore Blaze 12-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Money Magnet 3-1 WON ($7.50)
Super Add: #3 Elder's Pride 12-1 3rd

6th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Well-matched group. Seems necessary to include at least the top 3 seem to

Most Likely: #4 Ricoriatoa 2-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Saint Daimon 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Raynick's Jet 3-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Mad for Smarty 6-1 5th

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 She's Got Rules 4-1 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #7 Bella Lady 2-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Hit Your Stride 15-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Too Tough Sissy 5-2 6th

8th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Dance Floor Maniac 6-5 2nd
Best Value: #7 Scibelli 30-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Shotgun Duty 3-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Hurricane Heat 9-2 5th

9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (DD, Super)

As usual, a tricky turf sprint..

Best Value: #4 Risky Gamble 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Sextant 5-2 WON ($5.90)
Exotics Use: #10 My Lucky Penney 6-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Reproduction 6-1 7th

10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Nearly impossible assembly to end the sequence, and the season. Feels like about 9 of the 10 can win. The good news is that no matter how you did today or at the Belmont meet, the next time you hear a Tom Durkin call after this, it will be coming from Saratoga Race Course!

Best Value: #10 Mean Reversion 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Amirahy 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Aprilmayjune 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #5 I'm a Personal Jet 8-1

<$200 P5 P6 Play:

5: 4-6
6: 1-4-5
7: 6-7
8: 3
9: 1-4
10: 3-4-10

2x3x2x1x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-6-7-8
8: 3
9: 1-2-4-10
10: ALL

4x1x4x9 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve