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-   -   6/10: Belmont Park ($32k C/O) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=42630)

Kasept 06-10-2011 04:02 AM

6/10: Belmont Park ($32k C/O)
 
BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 1m-T (P6, P3,

Pretty tricky start to the P6 sequence with perhaps 7 of the 10 conceivable..

Most Likely: #2 Dodging 5-2 4th
Next Best: #9 Cousin Rich 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Quick Recovery 10-1 WON ($13.20)
Super Add: #3 Hot Rodder 12-1 5th


6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

While this is a pretty weak bunch of maidens, there are several stories to be told within it. Foremost sadly is the presence of #8 Sundae's a Meese, the sister of the wonderful racemare Meese Rocks who succumbed to laminitis a week ago. Few trainers or owners will be as lucky to have a horse in their string and stable as giving as Meese Rocks; #2 Bound to Happen is out of the excellent and largely forgotten New Jersey bred Avie's Fancy who counted the Matchmaker and Boiling Springs among her memorable wins in the early 90's. She is notable as a dam as well for having produced St. Averill; On a personal note regarding this group, Joe Gioia (Very Un Stable) offers #5 Mostess Hostess as the first foal from his charming Twinkie Zone, a Wild Zone miss that was a delight to be around when she was running out of the Del Carroll barn..

Most Likely: #2 Bound to Happen 5-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Lucy Stragmore 5-2 6th
Best Value: #9 Silver Mast 20-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Sundae's a Meese 4-1 3rd


7th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

This is a tremendous betting affair with a can't-break-through favorite in Wonder Again sib Wonder Beyond, and a hatfull of the rest possible at fun odds. Be creative and use everyone you believe has a chance and you may be amply rewarded for your aggression. I would have put Win the Day on top if not for the presence of the frightful Pezua..

Best Value: #6 Fu Pegs Baby 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Wonder Beyond 2-1 4th
Exotics Use: #10 Nykid Time to Jazz 12-1 9th
Super Add: #11 Win the Day 15-1 11th


8th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Willing to believe that 7yo mare Acquired Cat (3-1 fave) may need one after 7+ months away. It may be the proper level, but it can't be construed as a positive that Galluscio offers her for sale upon return at half the price she was when last seen..

Most Likely: #6 Ushuaia 5-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #3 Long Gone 10-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Acquired Cat 3-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Flying Sappho 12-1 2nd


9th: 26th Poker (G3), 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Most Likely: #1 Courageous Cat 2-1 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #2 Right One 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Beau Choix 5-2 4th


10th: 123rd Brooklyn H. (G2), 3+, 12f (Brooklyn-Belmont Double)

Tight field and the typical cat-and-mouse game for riders going the 12 panels. No one would be too much of a shock..

Most Likely: #1 Eldaafer 2-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Drosselmeyer 6-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Birdrun 7-2 WON ($7.30)


<$150 P6 Play:

5: 2-9
6: 2-3-9
7: 6-9
8: 6
9: 1-2
10: 1-2-4

2x3x2x1x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 6-7-9-10-11
8: 3-6-10
9: 1-2
10: All

5x3x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75


Good luck!
Steve

dino 06-10-2011 05:10 AM

Thanks for all your hard work Steve :)

jms62 06-10-2011 05:52 AM

Steve. You liking the .50 P4? My initial thoughts are it seriously is depressing payouts (using 1.00 as the base). The last few years Belmont day has paid Box car P4's leading into the Belmont. Not so sure this year though even if we get some nice prices.

atolunch 06-10-2011 06:37 AM

Best of luck today and all weekend, Steve.

Thanks as always for your tireless efforts.

Will you be posting a Brooklyn/Belmont DD play?

Here's to a monster weekend!!

jms62 06-10-2011 07:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atolunch (Post 783195)
Best of luck today and all weekend, Steve.

Thanks as always for your tireless efforts.

Will you be posting a Brooklyn/Belmont DD play?

Here's to a monster weekend!!

Birdrun/Nehro

Kasept 06-10-2011 10:07 AM

BEL SCR/CHG'S

Kasept 06-10-2011 11:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dino (Post 783186)
Thanks for all your hard work Steve :)

Dino.. Thx very much. It's always my pleasure.

Kasept 06-10-2011 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 783193)
Steve. You liking the .50 P4? My initial thoughts are it seriously is depressing payouts (using 1.00 as the base). The last few years Belmont day has paid Box car P4's leading into the Belmont. Not so sure this year though even if we get some nice prices.

I'm with you. Had trepidation about the change and it feels like it has cut into the returns. Let's see what happens at Saratoga though before drawing conclusions. Not that I've been too clever with my tickets anyway, but I've gravitated back to $1 increment.

Kasept 06-10-2011 11:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atolunch (Post 783195)
Best of luck today and all weekend, Steve.

Thanks as always for your tireless efforts.

Will you be posting a Brooklyn/Belmont DD play?

Here's to a monster weekend!!

HB,

Thx buddy! G/L to you and the 'team'... I'm not sure the Bklyn/Belmont DBL is worth playing unless you hammer at it narrowly. How about $10 with the 1/9-12 ($20).

Coach Pants 06-10-2011 01:58 PM

Belmont 5
$15 wp 3

knickslions2 06-10-2011 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants (Post 783295)
Belmont 5
$15 wp 3

I jumping on with ya here

$10 wp 3

Coach Pants 06-10-2011 02:06 PM

Well the horse hates the turf.

knickslions2 06-10-2011 02:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Coach Pants (Post 783304)
Well the horse hates the turf.

Yep. Was hoping the opposite :)


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