Derby Trail Forums - 6/4: Belmont (7th-10th); Churchill (7th-11th); Thistledown (Derby)

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Rather salacious state bred group going for its' first level hurdle here to start the P4, and this might be the day's best individual betting race. Southbeachsandy gets slight nod as the one to beat, but there are three juicy prices in Roaring Conquest (10-1), Here Comes Vinny (30-1) and Artie Luvsto Party (8-1) that tempt and tease. Suggesting a tri play below getting Here Comes Vinny into the money, but use your own approach making sure to liberally include the longshots..

#2 Roaring Conquest has SCR'D..

Most Likely: #3 Southbeachsandy 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Here Comes Vinny 30-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Artie Luvsto Party 8-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Bigger is Bettor 4-1 3rd

<$15 TRI PLAY: 3 with 1-2-4-5-8 with 6 (1x5x1 = 5 x $2 = 10) & 3 with 6 with 1-2-4-5-8 (1x1x5 = $5) = $15

8th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Quirky turf sprint with 3 firsters and some well-bred underachievers signed on..

Best Value: #9 Houliana 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Amirahy 4-1 WON-DH ($2.70)
Exotics Use: #8 Big Apple Lady 10-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Turbo Tweaked 8-1 3rd

9th: 61st Vagrancy H. (G2), F&M-3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Hilda's Passion obvious towers over this group if close to her best, but there is the conceivable chance that she is tailing off after the enormous performances in Florida. Tidal Pool, Erin Rose, Kid Kate or Streaker would have to improve -- nee, run their career best -- to beat the favorite here. That makes it difficult to approach Hilda's Passion as anything other than a 'single', especially with the Belmont main playing kindly to speed..

Most Likely: #2 Hilda's Passion 3-5 WON ($2.90)
Next Best: #5 Tidal Pool 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Erin Rose 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Streaker 4-1 4th

10th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

NOTE: #13 Kaz Dear (20-1) drew in and is worth including in the multis and exotics..

Most Likely: #9 Bobity Boo 7-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #1 Song for Pupcake 5-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Frazzie 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 Erma Lee 5-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-5-6-8
8: 3-4-9
9: 2
10: 1-4-9-12-13

5x3x1x5 = $75

$1 Pick 4 (1-3-2-9) Paid $30.75

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Big and suspicious drop on 3-1 fave Blushing Romeo. Nickel claimers a tough way to start the P5..

Best Value: #6 Chesapeake Bay 6-1 5th
Next Best: #10 Blushing Romeo 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Saviano 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Bad Jenna Lee 15-1 11th

8th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Many notable sisters of stars here including Shackleford/Afleeting Lady, Rated Fiesty/Time Counts, Seeking the Title/Ensign's Soul and Here Comes Ben (runs in 10th)/Gottahaveadream..

Most Likely: #6 Empress of Gold 4-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Gottahaveadream 8-1 10th
Next Best: #4 Time Counts 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Lightshaft 4-1 8th

9th: 37th Dogwood (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, Dd, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Fantasy of Flight 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Might 2-1 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Gran Lioness 4-1 3rd

10th: 23rd Aristides (G3), 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Capt. Candyman Can 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Here Comes Ben 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Cash Refund 4-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Riley Tucker 8-1 5th

11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 5f-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #8 Cascadilla Falls 6-5 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #10 Private Offering 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Knysna 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Open Agenda 4-1 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #9 Groupie Doll 15-1 8th

<$50 P5 Play:

7: 1-6-7-10
8: 2-4-6-9
9: 1-5
10: 1-3-5
11: 8
4x4x2x3x1 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-4-6-9
9: 1-5
10: 1-3-5
11: 4-8-10

4x2x3x3 = $72 ($36 for .50)

THISTLEDOWN

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 77th Ohio Derby (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

OK group for this with a few players -- like Global Power as discussed yesterday on ATR with Chad Brown -- showing potential to impact second half of the sophomore season..

Most Likely: #10 Global Power 7-2 7th
Best Value: #9 Goodtimehadbyall 12-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Caleb's Posse 3-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #4 Le Mans 6-1 5th

WOODBINE

POST-SCRATCHES

WO 8th: 56th Nassau (G2), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Never Retreat 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Valli With a Vow 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Miss Keller 5-2 6th
Super Add: #5 Bay to Bay 8-1 WON ($15.10)

Good luck!
Steve