Derby Trail Forums - 5/6: Churchill Downs (KY Oaks Day/1st-11th)

Two weeks at Churchill has passed by rapidly, and a great weekend of racing is upon us. Hope you have enjoyed At the Races coverage of Oaks-Derby 137, and feel prepared to attack one of the more challenging two days of handicapping and wagering of the year... Steve Crist, Rich Migliore, Mike Welsch, Gus Alonso, Nick Tammaro, Rick Hammerle, Alex Waldrop and others join me today to put the final touches on our 2 weeks in the 'ville. Good luck and enjoy Oaks-Derby!

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

SCR/CHG'S (EARLY)

1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Expresso Run 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Empress of Gold 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Virtously 6-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Tropic of Aquarius 5-2 3rd

2nd: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Minister Colin 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #10 Chalice 10-1 WON ($9.80)
Next Best: #9 Our Noble Heart 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Gold Trader 4-1 5th

3rd: S/ALW, 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Juanita 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #4 Goodnessgraciousme 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Golden Phoenix 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Silent Spin 6-1 7th

4th: OC/N3X, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Turallure 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Deal Making 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Pickapocket 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Guys Reward 4-1 WON ($6.60)

5th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Temptation Bound 8-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Garnet Crystal 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Might 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #2 Kit Carson 8-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 7-10
3: 4-5-6
4: 1-3-4-8-9
5: 2-3-5-8-9

2x3x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

.50 P4 (10-6-9-9) Paid $202.10

6th: 26th La Troienne (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Unrivaled Belle 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Blind Luck 9-5 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Quiet Giant 10-1 6th
Super Add: #4 All Due Respect 6-1 3rd

7th: 26th Edgewood, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Diva Ash 8-1 WON ($9.00)
Exotics Use: #8 Sassy's Dream 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Smart Sting 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 My Redbyrd 8-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

4: 1-3-4-8-9
5: 2-3-5-8-9-10
6: 7-8
7: 2-6-8

4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

.50 Pick 4 (9/9/2,7/2) Paid $93.85

8th: 56th Eight Belles (G3), 3yo-F, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Victoria's Wildcat 12-1 WON ($15.20)
Next Best: #3 Pomeroys Pistol 3-1 -
Exotics Use: #1 Arienza 4-1 -
Super Add: #2 Home Sweet Aspen 8-1 2nd

9th: 8th Alysheba (G3), 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Thoroughly crazy group..

Best Value: #1 Wise Dan 15-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Caracortado 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Mission Impazible 7-2 7th
Super Add: #11 Regal Ransom 4-1 2nd

10th: 20th American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

That's quite an embarrassing morning line on Swagger Jack..

Best Value: #10 Swagger Jack 50-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Close Ally 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #13 Air Support 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Banned 3-1 WON ($8.00)

11th: 137th Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, Super, Super Hi-5, Oaks-Derby Dbl, Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3)

Great group of 3yo fillies was made into a terrific betting race with R Heat Lightening exiting the picture. While the last two weeks has shown the lineup in a mostly positive light, nothing has been more impressive visually than Joyful Victory lugging Larry Jones' large carcass around the oval daily at a 2 min. clip. It's impossible not to think of Proud Spell while watching her train these 2 weeks. She's not as talented, but she's certainly ready for a premium effort. Is it good enough to win?

The Fair Grounds Oaks fillies have impressed me daily. Daisy Devine (McKeever) and St. John's River (Leggio) are 20-1 and 30-1 respectively, and should both outrun their odds. The poor draw for Leggio's girl (#13) is a downer. McKeever's filly, bought for $4,500, needs to make up 3-5 lengths to win against 3-4 of these, so she may be best employed as an exotic lynchpin.

We haven't had the luxury of seeing Zazu much locally, but what I got to see was pretty eye-opening. If she runs back to the last, she's a prime win player. And of course speaking of running back to her last, Plum Pretty will factor if the Sunland Oaks is reprized. She's looked good here and was particularly good over the wet going.

Summer Soiree was a horse I came in not liking, but she has been sharp acting in the a.m., and was nearly impossible for the girl to pull up after her gallop Wednesday. Literally. It took the female exercise rider a quarter mile to stop the Team Valor missy. Kathmanblu has done nothing wrong at all these 2 weeks, and kept wheeling away from the gap today as Walter Blum tried to take her home.

Bouquet Booth has been much better than her Margo barnmate Street Storm, and I'm surprised in fact that Street Storm was entered here. Haven't seen much of the Bobby Flay acquisition Her Smile on track, but schooling in the paddock she showed herself to be a substantial, rangy gal. Todd Pletcher said she seems like a real nice filly so far.

Speedy Smithwick's Suave Voir Faire may be outclassed on paper, but she is a big powerful looking thing that moves like she is willing to bully foes. Holy Heavens and Lilacs and Lace have been adequate, but haven't called attention to themselves the way you like a horse to in the proceedings. Best of luck! Should be a very fun Oaks!

Most Likely: #1 Joyful Victory 5-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Zazu 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Summer Soiree 5-1 10th
Best Value: #9 Daisy Devine 20-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #13 St. John's River 30-1 2nd

<$50 Oaks Derby Double Play:

KO: 1-3-4-6-9-12-13
KD: 8-13-14-15-16-17

7x6 = $42

Paid $172.80

<$50 Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3 Play:

KO: 1-3-6-9
WR: 4-5-9-10
KD: 8-13-14-15-16-17

4x4x6 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P5 Play:

7: 2-8
8: 1-3-8
9: 1-2
10: 1-3-10-13
11: 1-3-6

2x3x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-2-3-4-8
9: 1-2
10: 1-2-3-10-13
11: 1-3-6

5x2x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75

12th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #4 Air Guitar 4-1 5th
Best Value: #7 How She Rolls 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Cascadilla Falls 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Spoils 5-1 7th

Good luck!
Steve