Derby Trail Forums - 4/8: Keeneland (6th-10th)

Fun late afternoon Thursday, and I was mighty tickled to extract the $539 quad at Oaklawn after taking an anchor leg beat there last week. This sequence was made possible by a quirky happenstance that demonstrates the importance of re-evaluating races after scratches. When POE Elizabeth Park came out of the 8th, it changed the complexion of the race completely, given how likely a winner she was in the group. Instead of using her and one other possible winner in the P4, I adjusted to a four deep approach in the leg. That meant having to make a stand elsewhere to keep the ticket affordable, and with Cryptolight having multiple appealling advantages in the feature, he became the single.

As a result, going 4 wide in the 8th netted overlaid winner Margie Marie at 13-2 ($15.20), which helped drive the multi to its' generous $500+ level. Cryptolight was also a value in his score, bring back $11.60. Another positive element of the way the ticket was structured, was being alive to three runners in the nightcap including 24-1 A P Dilly. The $50 horse took an overland route while rallying under Joel Campbell, and fell a length short of the 3-2 winner. Had he been able to win, the P4 would have brought back $2,556. And that's the position you want to be in.. alive to live horses for real money.

Fell short in the smallish ($154) Santa Anita P4 when the Walsh returnee just missed at 12-1, but the $160 triple keyed by Sebastian Flyte in the 5th covered most of the the day's Cali action pretty well. Overall, a very nice afternoon with all winners somewhere in the tabs and many solid exotic bingos. Hope you did well.

Keeneland opens today, and the P5/late P4 look mighty tough. They introduce the .10 P6 there this afternoon, as well as the .50 P5 which will likely draw a very big pool daily based on the Monmouth and Gulfstream successes. There is also a nice $27k carryover at Aqueduct where turf racing will commence on a course labeled "good" earlier this a.m. The 7th and 9th will go over the lawn while the Maiden Claimer 5th has been taken off...

KEENELAND

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 4+, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Some start to the P5, Who can't win?

Best Value: #11 Unaccountable 6-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #5 Hyracotherium 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Kingofthebluegrass 20-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Glamour Guy 4-1 9th

7th: OC/N3X, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Canon Man 9-2 7th
Next Best: #7 A Diehl 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Grand Traverse 5-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Delano 4-1 6th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Elusive Action 4-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Lee Chapel 15-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Casper's Touch 3-1 WON ($9.20)
Super Add: #3 Shadow Warrior 7-2 10th

9th: 23rd Transylvania (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Tough to take the short price on Breeders' Cup Juvy Turf tiger Pluck after blah return in Tampa..

Most Likely: #7 Great Mills 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 SCR
Exotics Use: #10 Pluck 5-2 7th
Super Add: #6 Adirondack Summer 4-1 3rd

10th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Asmussen firster #5 Champagne Run a half to Friesan Fire..

Most Likely: #8 Royal Start 5-1 7th
Best Value: #1 Cascadilla Falls 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Champagne Run 9-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Shatoosh 7-2 WON ($14.20)
Hi-5 Play: #12 SCR

<$50 P5 Play:

6: 5-6-8-11
7: 5-7-8
8: 10
9: 1-7/SCR
10: 1-5-6-8

4x3x1x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-7-8
8: 1-3-9-10
9: 1/SCR-7-10
10: 1-5-6-8

3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve