Late Pace Figures for Derby Preps
 

I don't do numbers for Sunland... but here are the late pace figs for the rest of the preps....

Timely Writer: 182 late pace
Risen Star: 131 late pace
Dialed In's ALW race: 116 late pace
Louisiana Derby: 112 late pace
Gotham: 110 late pace
Rebel: 106 late pace
Holy Bull: 106 late pace
Sam Davis: 100 late pace
Fountain of Youth: 97 late pace
Whirlaway: 96 late pace
Tampa Derby: 92 late pace
Lecomte: 91 late pace
Southwest: 86 late pace
El Camino Real Derby: 85 late pace
Hutcheson: 84 late pace
Sham: 67 late pace
San Vincente: 65 late pace
Spiral: 57 late pace
Bob Lewis: 47 late pace
San Felipe: 44 late pace


Basically - the lower the number - the better chance closers have of winning. The higher the number - the harder it is for closers.

If you're 10 lengths back in the Timely Writer - you've got no chance closing into a 182 late pace fig. If you're 10 lengths back in the San Felipe - you're only worry is that you might be way too close to the pace.

It's kind of head scratching why all the preps in So. Cal seem to be going very fast early and very slow late. A lot of it surely has to do with riders assuming the track is speed biased ... so they are riding more aggressive through the early stages.

The opposite is happening at Fair Grounds this year ... too much gets made about that long stretch. At that track, It's not untypical to see maidens setting faster fractions in routes and holding well - on the same card when they're lollygaging in Derby preps.

I never knew that Uncle Mo has such a great late kick!

Helps when you can crawl on the lead for 3/4ths of the race and no one wants to challenge you.

Rattlesnake Bridge got a 153 late pace fig in that race. The Timely Writer has to go down as one of the most absurd run races in history. It was basically a 2f sprint race disguised as an 8f horse race.

He'd probably make a good synthetic surface runner!

Comma to the Top's late pace figure was a negative 15.

I'm not even going to bother to figure out Runflatout and Albergatti's ... it's probably minus triple digits.

That trio sure ran efficent races.

In order for Uncle Mo to run a 100 Beyer in the Timely Writer ... he would have had to run a 215 late pace figure.

I haven't been doing this very long - but I don't ever remember one higher than his 182.

A 182 with virtually no effort.

I'm not sure I've ever seen a dirt race quite like how that one was run. Or won.

Just for my information, can you please tell us what part you are looking at? Is it the 2nd call to the wire, or are you putting a figure on the early part to look at the race shape in relation to final time?

If you are talking 2nd call to wire, I understand what you are saying about closers having no shot when the late fig is higher, but what if it's the closer that posts that figure? To me the early pace is more telling such as you mention in SoCal where they are going fast early.

8f races: final 2 furlongs

8.5f races: final 2.5 furlongs

9f races: final 3 furlongs


6f races: final 2 furlongs

6.5f races: final 2.5 furlongs

7f races: final 3 furlongs

I'm not sure I follow.

To me - late pace figures on dirt - and I've just started fooling around with them - tell just two things.

#1.) did the horse use his speed efficently? If he's running a late pace figure of negative 50 - you know he will improve on his final figure big next time because he was burned out. If he's running a late pace figure of 150 - you know he'll improve his final number next time because he went too slow early on to run as fast as he's capable of running.

#2) did the pace truly collapse - or did the opposite happen? Like I said - the higher the number, the more hopeless things went for closers. The lower the number - the more the speed collapsed.

I see your point about lower number being a speed collapse. What I would argue, particularly in routes, is that the 6f early pace is a better indicator of what a closer's chances are. I haven't seen it approached quite the way I think you are looking at it, though I'm intrigued. I like what you say about efficiently rationing speed, and I believe that's a particularly useful number when looking at younger horses or horses exiting races with multiple speed demons.

Faster late pace is a function of slow early in most cases. Certainly makes it more difficult to close into, but I'm of the opinion that late pace is tough to interpret without knowing the early pace.

When you're using the other races to create a variant, you have to see how the other races were run. If there are 4 speed duels where the pace collapses, the late variant will be high, but a race run differently with a slow-early speed on an open lead would throw that race out of whack.

Now I'm confusing myself :D. I know what I'm thinking, so I hope I'm communicating it.