Derby Trail Forums - 3/19: Aqueduct (C/O); Gulfstream (P5); Oaklawn (P4); Santa Anita (P4+)

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$27,552 P6 C/O Starts Here..

Fun betting race and I'm a sucker for 'first time 4yo's' like Crepe Au Sucre, who flashed talent at three before time out. Clever time for this one to come back since the name of the Kelly trainee refers to the Quebecois pancakes served now during sugaring off of the maples..

Best Value: #6 Crepe Au Sucre 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Storm Falcon 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Miami Hammer 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Tapped Out Bruno 6-1 WON ($15.20)

6th: MSW, 3+, 1m-70y (G/S, P3, DD)

Inside trio look like the key players, but note the return of $700k Darley purchase Merensky Reef (8-1), son of the excellent and versatile Platinum Tiara who faced Game On Dude, Our Dark Knight, Morning Line and more before being sidelined last year..

Most Likely: #3 Eltheeb 4-1 WON ($6.30)
Next Best: #1 Corundum 6-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Acadian Blues 7-2 2nd

7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Interesting Empire maiden set with Giant Moon (Giant's Causeway) sib Piscesbythemoonlight making debut for Schosberg and Fried. Another notable bow comes from Albertrani's Elusive Quality son Hershel, a half to turf toughie Willard Straight (Lion Cavern)..

Most Likely: #5 Master Splash 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Ground Force 5-1 WON ($11.80)
Exotics Use: #8 El Dreamer 8-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Piscesbymoonlight 5-1 4th

8th: NY-ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Very tricky group made more difficult by presence of low priced Fortitude (2-1) who is capable, but has really run only two good races of the eight in which he has participated. Tocco d'Oro has a pace edge in here up front, and overlaid Mindboggling has never been better than Ferraro has had him since the calendar turned..

Most Likely: #8 Tocco d'Oro 3-1 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #5 Mind Boggling 12-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Who's Willie Fitz 4-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Here Comes Vinny 6-1 3rd

9th: 19th Cicada (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

Tony Dutrow is very effective at this time of year with horses like Quantum Miss, and KMc's In Step, half to Vindication, could be anything after a winning bow 4 weeks ago..

Most Likely: #5 Quantum Miss 7-2 WON ($5.80)
Best Value: #4 Dream 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 In Step 3-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Wild About Sonny 12-1 6th

10th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Winged Bandit 7-5 WON ($2.90)
Best Value: #5 Missymoonlitmagic 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Fastish 5-2 5th
Super Add: #1 Ecoach 5-1 4th

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 1-3-4-6
6: 1-3
7: 5-6
8: 8
9: 1-4-5
10: 2-5

4x2x2x1x3x2 = $192

$2 Pick 6 (1/3/6/8/5/2,4,9) Paid $12,231.00

$2 Pick 6 Conso (1/3/6/8/5/2,4,9) Paid $114.00 x 8 = $912.00

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-6
8: 1-2-4-5-8-9
9: 1-4-5
10: 2-5

2x6x3x2 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (6/8/5/2,4,9) Paid $139.50

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-Inner Turf (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$367,164 P6 C/O Starts Here..

Most Likely: #10 Gathering Cloud 5-2 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #9 Guns and Religion 15-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Tetelestai 3-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Echo Tango 8-1 9th

7th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Erin Rose 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #8 Honest Gold 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Unicorn Girl 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Speightful Lady 6-1 4th

8th: CLM, 4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Passager 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Call Shot 8-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Lucas Brady 5-1 WON ($13.40)
Super Add: #4 Livingston Street 10-1 4th

9th: CLM, F&M-4+, 5f-Inner Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Knockinelder 10-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Bella Moneta 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Lady Rizzi 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Lose None 8-1 WON ($15.20)

10th: Inside Information (G2), F&M-4+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Hilda's Passion 9-5 WON ($3.20)
Best Value: #3 Ms Vanennza 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Amen Hallelujah 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Beautician 4-1 6th

10th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 9f-Outer Turf (Super)

Best Value: #7 Papaw Bodie 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Family Foundation 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Niagara Thunder 12-1 12th
Super Add: #6 Show the Way J 3-1 10th

<$50 P5 Play:

7: 4-8
8: 3-6-9
9: 5-9-10
10: 5
11: 2-4-5-6-7

2x3x3x1x5 = 90 x .50 = $45

$0.50 Pick 5 (4/9/8/5,6/2) Paid $11.70 (4OF5) x 3 = $35.10

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 3-6-9
9: 5-8-9-10
10: 5
11: 2-4-5-6-7

3x4x1x5 = $60 ($30 for .50)

$1 Pick 4 (9/8/5,6/2) Paid $1,063 ($531.50 for .50)

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

9th: 25th Tampa Bay (G3), 4+, 8.5f-T (P4, DD, Super)

Nice group for this, and considering the ML, I cannot help but build bets around a horse with whom I've made a lot of money, Rahystrada..

Best Value: #5 Rahystrada 8-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Voodoo Swinge 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Teaks North 4-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Doubles Partner 9-2 WON ($6.60)

OAKLAWN PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 6f (P4)

Most Likely: #7 Wild Hope 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Rigamaro 15-1 7th
Next Best: #9 Glowing Report 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Ripe Tomato 8-1 3rd

9th: 25th Azeri (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, Super)

With all the focus on short-toted Blind Luck (8-5) and Havre de Grace (9-5), you may want to be focusing on Spacy Tracy (5-1), a new mare on dirt since last fall, and Tidal Pool (6-1), back in best form..

Best Value: #1 Tidal Pool 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Havre de Grace 9-5 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Spacy Tracy 5-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Blind Luck 8-5 2nd

10th: 51st Rebel (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Note anticipated SCR's of Dreaminofthewin, Glint and Elite Alex (Louisiana Derby). Fascinating assembly of lesser seen sophomores looking to play serious role on Derby Trail. Attention in advance of this has rightly been on Cali invaders The Factor (Baffert) and Sway Away (Bonde) in wake of Premier Pegasus' San Felipe romp a week ago. Baffert trainee sure looks to have big advantage on the engine..

Most Likely: #6 The Factor 2-1 WON ($4.80)
Best Value: #1 Archarcharch 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Sway Away 5-2 6th
Super Add: #5 J P's Gusto 5-1 7th

11th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #6 Timber Wildcat 9-2 4th
Next Best: #3 Thunder Song 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Semiconductor 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Mississippi Money 4-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 6-7-9
9: 1-4-5-7
10: 1-6-9
11: 3-6

3x4x3x2 = $72

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: Cal-Irish O'Brien, F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Saanneen 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 La Nez 9-2 WON ($10.40)
Next Best: #1 SCR
Super Add: #5 Strawberry Tart 6-1 8th

6th: CLM, F&M-4+, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Havens Lake 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #9 Ann's Seven 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Poetic Riches 4-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Sipnzin 6-1 6th

7th: 44th Santa Ana (G2), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Washington Bridge 8-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Malibu Pier 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #7 Eclair de Lune 5-2 5th
Super Add: #6 It Tiz 5-1 6th

8th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Meadow Road 3-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Flightofalifetime 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Maclean's Music 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Super Add: #4 Cherryzapper 12-1 8th

9th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Excellent News 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Saint Isabelle 5-2 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #1 Crisis of Spirit 8-5 4th
Super Add: #4 Pincelada 12-1 2nd

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Make Someone Happy 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #2 Sexy Melody 7-2 5th
Best Value: #6 Magical Grace 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Suitable Attire 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Jordanelle 6-1 WON ($9.20)

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-5-6-7-8
8: 3-4-6-9
9: 1-2-5
10: 2-4

6x4x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve