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-   -   1/28: Gulfstream (5th-9th) (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=40704)

Kasept 01-28-2011 06:53 AM

1/28: Gulfstream (5th-9th)
 
GULFSTREAM


PRE-SCRATCHES


5th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 5f-Outer Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Dee's Rose 3-1 8th
Best Value: #2 Yes It's Valid 6-1 WON ($13.80)
Next Best: #6 Natalicat 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 She'sa Tough Tiger 6-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (2-6) Paid $115.00
$1 Trifecta (2-6-1) Paid $444.50



6th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

This assembly is an awful start to a late sequence at a major track. Watch board for clues because ML likely will mean even less than usual with this bad group..

Best Value: #8 Ace Pilot 6-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Valid Ocean Pass 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Rockin Robbie 8-1 WON ($20.80)
Super Add: #4 Joltin' Joe 12-1 5th

$1 Exacta (10-11) Paid $51.90


7th: MSW, 3yo, 9f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

5-1 on Pervis? Will be closer to 2-1..

Best Value: #5 Newsdad 6-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #3 Pervis 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #2 Br. Alexander 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Walker's Landing 6-1 7th

$1 P3 (2-10-5) Paid $633.80


8th: CLM, 4+, 5f-Inner Turf (DD, Super)

Super competitive turf dash here..

Most Likely: #12 Major Momentum 5-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Took It From Him 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Ashtonofun 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Beer Stein 6-1 10th


9th: CLM, 4+, 9f (Super)

Best Value: #9 Hey Byrn 10-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Just Like Biscuit 6-1 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Dual Forecast 12-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Seattle Zipper 12-1 8th


<$50 P5 Play:

5: 2-4
6: 8-11
7: 3-5
8: 6-12
9: 1-4-6-7-8-9

2x2x2x2x6 = 96 x .50 = $48


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 8-11
7: 2-3-4-5-7-10
8: 6-12
9: 1-4-6-7-8-9

2x6x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

turf fan 01-28-2011 07:59 AM

Why 2-1 on Pervis? Rogue Romance came back to win a G3, but this is a tough heat. He's doing well, but even I will not play my horse at that short price. Newsdad looks to be the horse to beat, even though Clement had a firster win yesterday at the same distance. The upsetter could be Fad, very well bread for the turf and Tagg has a history of scoring now and then with big prices.

blackthroatedwind 01-28-2011 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by turf fan (Post 746724)
Why 2-1 on Pervis? Rogue Romance came back to win a G3, but this is a tough heat. He's doing well, but even I will not play my horse at that short price. Newsdad looks to be the horse to beat, even though Clement had a firster win yesterday at the same distance. The upsetter could be Fad, very well bread for the turf and Tagg has a history of scoring now and then with big prices.


Steve is throwing his hat into the ring for the GP morning line position.

You guys think the line is bad now.......

Mike 01-28-2011 09:21 AM

GP 3rd: Bad Debt
GP 4th: Won Great Damsel
GP 5th: Rose Diamond
GP 6th: exacta box Ace Pilot/Valid Ocean Pass

declansharbor 01-28-2011 09:35 AM

Steve,

Jus wondering, but why only go 2 deep in a race that you peg as a super competitve dash? Keep up the great work and thanks again for all your insight!

Kasept 01-28-2011 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by declansharbor (Post 746758)
Steve,

Jus wondering, but why only go 2 deep in a race that you peg as a super competitve dash? Keep up the great work and thanks again for all your insight!

Mike,

To me, turf sprints are regularly just crapshoots. I like to try to take a stand when possible, especially given that there are a couple other races in this sequence that need coverage with chances to produce prices. The problem with turf sprints are that you can spread and STILL get beat, so I say stay narrow and live or die.

G/L today!

jms62 01-28-2011 02:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 746717)
GULFSTREAM


PRE-SCRATCHES


5th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 5f-Outer Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Dee's Rose 3-1 -
Best Value: #2 Yes It's Valid 6-1 WON ($13.80)
Next Best: #6 Natalicat 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 She'sa Tough Tiger 6-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (2-6) Paid $115.00
$1 Trifecta (2-6-1) Paid $444.50


Very Nice Hit... 115 Exacta is sweet.

Kasept 01-28-2011 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by turf fan (Post 746724)
Why 2-1 on Pervis? Rogue Romance came back to win a G3, but this is a tough heat. He's doing well, but even I will not play my horse at that short price. Newsdad looks to be the horse to beat, even though Clement had a firster win yesterday at the same distance. The upsetter could be Fad, very well bread for the turf and Tagg has a history of scoring now and then with big prices.

Steve,

Sorry I didn't get back earlier. Looks like 4-1/9-2... Best of luck here!!

freddymo 01-28-2011 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind (Post 746739)
Steve is throwing his hat into the ring for the GP morning line position.

You guys think the line is bad now.......

Becareful Steve is in a bad mood.You wouldnt want him to yell at you too

Kasept 01-28-2011 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 746826)
Very Nice Hit... 115 Exacta is sweet.

THX! The tri was nuts too thanks to the fave running out!

Didn't get exactly what I wanted or needed out of that 6th though..

Kasept 01-28-2011 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by freddymo (Post 746829)
Becareful Steve is in a bad mood.You wouldnt want him to yell at you too

:o














All right.. I'm sorry.











(I'm not ever allowed to be out of sorts?)

jms62 01-28-2011 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 746830)
THX! The tri was nuts too thanks to the fave running out!

Didn't get exactly what I wanted or needed out of that 6th though..

You hit another nice exacta in the 6th

Kasept 01-28-2011 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62 (Post 746835)
You hit another nice exacta in the 6th

Yeah but leaving the 10 off killed my bigger P5/P4 plays.

All I have are P3's here to the 3-5 and then one with them through to the 6-12. That's it...

Kasept 01-28-2011 03:03 PM

Holy schit... P3 is over $600!

jms62 01-28-2011 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 746840)
Holy schit... P3 is over $600!

Nice again....

knickslions2 01-28-2011 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept (Post 746840)
Holy schit... P3 is over $600!

Gotta love that. Gulfstream keeps paying big!!


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