Derby Trail Forums - 1/13: Gulfstream (4th-9th)

Wednesday at Gulfstream was challenging as advertised, as the depth of the fields continued to make it difficult to string together winners. The upside of that of course is the overlay payouts that are regularly produced when you do catch the right combinations in exotics or multi-race plays. Curiously, one of the top three choices won the 4th-7th, but the P3's still paid $121 (4th-6th) and $153 (5th-7th)! The P5, which had to have difficult-to-use Trix in the City from the 8th, paid a handsome $5,953. Trix in the City somehow stayed on in the feature when other pacesetters (Tapitsfly & Barracks Road) collapsed, and cost me an enormous hit as selection features Romin Robin (21-1), Sweet Theresa (18-1) and Miss World (4-1) ran 2-3-4 behind her.

An interesting sidebar from the sequence was that the new Rainbow P6 was hit by 2 tickets that each collected $5,370. The carryover continued to grow, and now has reached $31,500. Steve Crist seems interested in how this new sextet might be approached, and included thoughts in his musings regarding the late Pick-X's which Gulfstream is offering. Returns of $5k certainly seem worth chasing if your .10 wager approach keeps a low cap, and I didn't mind losing $19.20 on my punch seeing that payout. Indeed, the "unique winner" concept of this P6 gives it the "Lotto" feel which has been suggested. I doubt playing for much "real" money makes sense until the thing reaches the anticipated jackpot level, but for anywhere from $4.80 (48 multiples) to the $20-ish (192 multiples) I suggested, it seems like the kind of simple action that can introduce neophytes to real multi-race wagering.

Hope you did OK yesterday. I caught a couple of modest exotics in the 7th and 9th to defray costs, but felt like the big one got away in the feature when Sweet Theresa and Romin Robin fell short. Wednesday's ATR guests faired well, as Graham Motion's colt Toby's Corner was an effortles winner at Laurel (81 Beyer), and Eddie Plesa scored for Mrs. Weber with Chateau D' Kim. Both had other board hits as well. More good racing at GP today, and there's a nice Late P4 at Santa Anita as well. Aqueduct is back in action after the heavy snow, and the Leecoo Stakes for state-bred damsels is a very good assembly.

GULFSTREAM

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$31,500 P6 Carryover starts here..

Best Value: #4 Golden Mystery 6-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Super Slash 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Hyperlink 3-1 WON ($7.60)
Super Add: #3 Granted Tiger 5-1 4th

5th: CLM, 3yo-F, 8.5f-Inner Turf (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Think Catalano might like to beat Calabrese here?

Most Likely: #2 Love This Kitten 6-1 WON ($8.60)
Next Best: #1 Dreaming of Rose 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 Maria's Luck 20-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Hidden Love 20-1 12th

6th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Morality 5-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Star Player 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #1a A Centurion 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Ling Ling Qi 12-1 9th

7th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Going to add #8 Christmas Cove at 12-1 to my tri and super plays..

Best Value: #1 Strike It Green 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Noble Charlotte 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Celestial Kitten 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 My Redbyrd 5-1 3rd

8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Expo Gold 6-1 -
Next Best: #4 Wild About Sonny 5-1 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Tellme All Aboutit 12-1 -
Super Add: #8 Because I Like It 4-1 2nd

9th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 1m-Inner Turf (Super)

Nearly impossible nightcap. Use as many as you can in your multis..

Best Value: #1 Wulfgar 10-1 -
Next Best: #7 Billions Boy 6-1 -
Exotics Use: #4 Papaw Bodie 10-1 WON ($)
Super Add: #11 Kuggerand 12-1 2nd

<$20 P6 Play:

4: 4-5
5: 1-2
6: 1-3-5
7: 1-5
8: 2-4
9: 1-4-7

2x2x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .10 = $14.40

<$75 P5 P6 Play:

5: 1-2-9-12
6: 1-3-5
7: 1-5
8: 2-4
9: 1-4-7

4x3x2x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3-5
7: 1-5-7-12
8: 2-4-6
9: 1-4-7-11

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve