Super Saturday Stakes Thoughts
 

Not exactly a lot of good opportunities for scores that I see.

Belmont:

Vosburgh: Absolutely awful collection of horses in terms of past runnings of this race. A pretty confusing race to handicap - but a good one for pick 3 purposes as the P3 overlays, in general, come biggest when the longest price is in leg #1.

Throwouts:

Golden Spikes: Hasn't come within 8 lengths of winning since Dubya was still in office.

Latigo Shore: Dream setup in King's Bishop and still couldn't compete with a very softened up Discreetly Mine.

Avoid the two favorites even though they're clearly the best horses:

Girolamo: The best horse in this race. I want no part of an A. P. Indy cutting back to 6 furlongs at a short price. Play against. Hope he has a subtle tough trip so I can use him in the Dirt Mile.

Driven By Success: is the 2nd fastest horse in the race in terms of early speed - trailing only Wall Street Wonder. He is not a fast horse away from the gate, so that rail draw won't help. Can win, but a play against.

That leaves five horses I'll be using in a spread...

* Temecula Creek: The product of good juice. Was beaten 12+ lengths in a 9th place finish when claimed for just $7,500 in March. Rudy has him right and his NYRA form makes him competitive with these.

* Snapshot: His two Belmont races are good enough to win this.

* Wall Street Wonder: Could get loose if DBS doesn't break well. Big winter dirt form.

* Riley Tucker: Great Belmont form. Beaten just 2 lengths in the '09 Met Mile.

* Wildcat Brief: Perkins is 13-for-47 with an impossible $4.04 ROI with sprinters at Monmouth this year. 1-for-1 at Belmont in sprints with a winner paying $14.60 this meet. Competitive form with these.



* Flower Bowl:

The Japan invander Red Desire finished ahead of two-time Breeders Cup Turf winner Conduit in the Japan Cup. She beat Glorio De Campeao when she won the Maktoum Challenge just three weeks before that horse won the $10,000,000 Dubai World Cup at the same track and distance.

She's a single against American turf females all day long.


Beldame:

This race sets up like a dream for the closers Presistantly and Miss Match.

The last time Life At Ten and Unrivelled Belle hooked up at Belmont - they fought through fractions of 45 2/5ths and 1:08 2/5ths - before Life At Ten disposed of UB ... and UB still was able to hold on for 2nd to her credit.

This time they need to go an extra 1/16th .. and you have a need the lead Queen Martha entered - as well as Bonnie Blue Flag - who has been pressing fast paced sprints.

Have to assume that MM isn't good enough despite the setup. BBF and QM are tossouts. Basically completing the pick 3 with Life At Ten, Unrivelled Belle, and Persistantly (can't wait to bet against her down the line)


Joe Hirsch

Nothing beyond the three favorites interest me a whole lot. I'm passing this race.

Jockey Club Gold Cup

Dutrow's great - and his strength has always been with previously raced horses going 1st time for him. He's had almost three months to dick around with Rail Trip. This is an ouchy horse who took forever to make the races and went on the vets list the day after the Hollywood Gold Cup. He either has him right - or he doesn't... and if he is right he probably wins.

I don't like Hold Me Back to finish in the superfecta. I'm playing against Mythical Power to finish in the super.

Superfecta: Rail Trip over Blame over 1-4-5-6 over 1-4-5-6
Superfecta: Blame over 1-4-6 over 1-4-6 over 1-4-5-6-8

Playing top super several times more than bottom one.


HOLLYWOOD:

Norfolk

JP's Gusto is obviously the best horse - but anytime a 2yo speed sprinter attempts two-turns for the first time - there is always a chance they bomb.

Using only Acaffella and Jaycito in multi wins.


Lady's Secret

Zenyatta - at her home track - against bums - at level weight. Does it get any more fun than this?

Single Zenyatta in multi wins.


Yellow Ribbon

Gypsy's Warning, Hibaayeb, and Turning Top in multi wins.


Goodwood

Crowded House was big for me in the Pac Classic - I think he's as good on synthetic as any of these. Distance is perfect and pace should suit him. Upset winner.


Parx

Cotillion

Awesome Maria is 2nd time Pletcher off of the layoff. Her 2-year-old dirt form was outstanding. Harv De Grace has been edged twice by Blind Luck - gets 10lbs in weight this time on a 1.5 furlong cutback. Blind Luck has had a tough campaign - has shipped all over - and has to give both 10lbs. Perhaps a short priced letdown.

Exacta box Awesome Maria and Harv De Grace.


Indiana Downs

Indiana Derby

If Lookin At Lucky's well - he hammers these friggen bums. Pass.


Hawthorne

Hawthorne Gold Cup

Redding Colliery and Temple City look like the only two who can win. Giant Oak's 0-for-9 on dirt but shouldn't have trouble getting a piece.

Drugs....Indiana Derby is at Hoosier Park.

Not that it matters much...L@L should hammer them for sure.

Girolamo will not be running in the Dirt Mile................for better or worse now, Godolphin has turned him into a sprinter.

If he gets beat by this disgraceful group - you can bet anything he doesn't run back in the Sprint.

It's either Cigar Mile or BC Dirt Mile next.

* Snapshot: His two Belmont races are good enough to win this.

No thanks. He always seems like an underlay and he isn't any good.

How are you playing that race?

In NH for a wedding on Saturday. Can't play...Would play the Perkins in the first 2 spots on my tickets.

Why do people always hold weddings on the weekend when other stuff is going on? Tell them they should have scheduled it on a Tuesday and maybe you'd have showed up.

Dude, I am with you. The wife's friend. Can't get out of it....but jeez....At least the next one i have to go to is the weekend after BC Day. Whew.

Unlike us.....most people have jobs during the week.:D

The JH Turf could get interesting if it's really soft

Also the Indiana Derby could be an interesting betting race. My question is do I put LaL on top of exotics or try to beat him(He will hit the board)???

I find it very funny that L@L us 5-2 morning line.

Oh, come on, you know Uareoutlaw might be reaaaaally good, right? :rolleyes:

That ML is a complete joke.

NT

Lord knows you're always right. :rolleyes:

I'm slightly interested in the Calder horse, but 5-2 on Lucky is absolutely loco. Can he really be higher than even money?

Sheesh. Someone's not in a gay mood today!

The morning line is a joke - LAL should be a conservative even money or lower.

The horse of Maker's has no South American dirt form - other than a distant 2nd in a maiden if I recall.

I'm not arguing the ml being wrong on 'Lucky, but he was taking a shot about what I said yesterday. I've watched the last couple of Uareoutlaw's races and think he is an interesting horse.

I'm not really sure what good the viewing of his South American turf races would do in terms of projecting to how he might run on dirt in America.

He's also been running against south american 3yo's - which are a half year younger. He's an August 3yo himself.

I know this.

He's a much better dirt horse. The opportunity to win the g1 on turf had to be taken. The horse he beat promptly came back won frst leg of crown by 9 there. LAL better show up it'll take his Haskell