Derby Trail Forums - 8/29: Saratoga (Day 33-Personal Ensign)

Sometimes you get the bear, and sometimes the bear gets you. Sometimes in the same day. It was a down/up afternoon Travers Day Saturday at Saratoga, coming out the other side on a high after wandering around blind without a cane for the first two thirds of the program. An exotics sweep in the King's Bishop, bonus mutuel in the hair-raising feature, and slightly foolhardy P4 play all helped me rally from bankroll death's door... In the Travers, I got lucky obviously as that photo was as tight as could be, but franklly, I feel like I got one back after the excruciating Mambo in Seattle loss 2 years ago. The payoff wasn't as hefty as I was looking for with the style of the structure ($422.50), and it probably doesn't justify the the gambit's moderate probability for success, but there's no reason to give it back!

More than anything, Travers Day was a testimony for staying on despite early losses. I was get slaughtered through the 8th race before starting to find the range when Rapport logically took the Victory Ride. It would have been nice to get any bigger price on the P4 tick with the 'all' button Ballerina, and perhaps Warbling could have reeled in Rightly So on a fairer track. And similarly, Bank Merger ($9.70) seemed to have dead aim on Discreetly Mine ($1.05) in the King's Bishop, but could not make up the length or so margin in the latest stages. When Latigo Shore ($44.70) and Hurricane Ike ($7.30) rounded out the $138 tri and $563 super in the the G1 test for sophs, I at least started to take the edge of the pounding I was taken up to that point.

Travers generated another thrilling and unforgettable stretch duel in its' 141st edition, the third such breath-taker in the last four runnings as Afleet Express and Fly Down battled gamely for 200 yards. And to say Jimmy Jerkens was a popular training winner may be the season's greatest understatement. The taciturn son of a legend had through the previous year experienced client setbacks that would have crippled many a conditioner. The loss of Ned Evans and the Moores as owners drained more than 20 horses from Jerkens' shedrow, and winning a race like the Travers has to come as welcome affirmation for a man who doesn't let many people get to know him.

It was a remarkably beautiful day at the Old Spa, and the 45,000+ that were on hand had to have had as good a time as a racetrack is capable of offering. Another 30,000 have a similar opportunity today, and being part of the Personal Ensign card with Ausable Chasm in the 2nd race only further enhances the day's festivities for Dee Tee partners, familiy and friends.

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Beautician 3-1 WON ($7.00)
Next Best: #6 Cinco de Mayo Mio 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Devils Humor 5-2 7th
Super Add: #5 Zermatt 7-2 4th

2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Ausable Chasm 6-1 WON ($22.20)
Next Best: #4 Lady Vi 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Millie Money 8-5 3rd
Super Add: #1 Affable Athena 6-1 7th

$1 Exacta $43.25
$1 Trifecta $58.75

3rd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Bound by Humor 5-2 4th
Best Value: #6 What's the Record 4-1 5th
Next Best: #1e Flying Zee entry 3-1 2nd/6th
Super Add: #3 Dream Drop Kid 7-2 3rd

4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Blushing Dixie 8-5 WON ($3.10)
Best Value: #8 Deputy's Citizen 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Aphrodite's Tears 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Proven Right 8-1 7th

5th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Bakhoor 9-2 4th
Next Best: #2 De Price 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Launceston 6-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-4
3: 1-2-6
4: 1-3-6-8
5: 2-5

3x3x4x2 = $72

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Trippo 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Devonshire 15-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Zapster 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Wildlee Special 12-1 10th

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD,Super)

Best Value: #7 Sound Chaser 10-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Recharged 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Henceforth 4-1 7th
Super Add: #8 SCR

8th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Irish Lady 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Considerate 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #2 Notell 6-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Ready for Autumn 12-1 4th

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Missinglisalewis 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Piazza Di Spagna 12-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Leipzig 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Bigshot 7-2 4th

10th: 63rd Personal Ensign (G1), F&M-3+, 10f (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Rachel Alexandra 2-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Miss Singhsix 10-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Life at Ten 5-2 3rd

11th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #10 Implied Odds 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Papaw Bodie 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Dark Cove 12-1 WON ($20.80)
Super Add: #6 Empire State 4-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-8
9: 4-5-8
10: 1-2-4
11: 1-5-6-10

2x3x3x4 = $72

Good luck!
Steve