Derby Trail Forums - 8/28: Saratoga (Day 32-Travers)

This is obviously a Saturday that needs little added fanfare from my keyboard. The coastal Racing Offices at Saratoga and Del Mar have authored outstanding Travers and Pacific Classic Day cards to kick off this big weekend, and horseplayers should relish the deep and challenging opportunities that abound as a result. Both meets wind down after these two days, so enjoy the great racing as we start the turn into the fall season...

Best of luck to everybody today!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Aspire 3-1: Loved strip as juvy.. 9th
Best Value: #1 Six Clicks 6-1: Stalk and go candidate.. 6th
Next Best: #9 Maximus Ruler 7-2: Possible lone speed on return.. 8th
Super Add: #10 Cocolero 4-1: Reunites with debut win pilot.. 9th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 1-3-9 with 1-3-9 with 1-3-5-7-9-10 with 1-3-5-7-9-10 (3x2x4x3 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)

2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Missyoulikecrazy 6-1: Full sis to Pretty Prolific (#6 Ballerina).. 3rd
Next Best: #6 Blazing Along 5-2: One the well meant Baffert trio today.. 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Malibu Cougar 5-1: Problematic trip in sloppy day bow.. 8th
Super Add: #4 With the Current 6-1: Swam upstream with Malibu Cougar.. 4th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 6-7-8 with 6-7-8 with 2-4-5-6-7-8 with 2-4-5-6-7-8 (3x2x4x3 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)

3rd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Nolangrant'skitten 6-1: Better tote than beatable fave Forum.. 7th
Next Best: #10 Volker 6-1: Bred to enjoy move to sod, routes.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Tingaleo 10-1: Ward 2/6 stretching 2yo's in grass bow.. 10th
Super Add: #11 Peb Hughes 8-1: Half to Cherokee Artist shopped for spot.. 8th

4th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

As has been the theme all meet, these state bred turf routes have been furtive opportunities for scores, and betting The Noz at 3-1 isn't the method by which you capitalize with about 8 or 9 here possible for honors..

Best Value: #9 Joey's Chance 6-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Barrel of Love 10-1 3rd-DH
Exotics Use: #11 Dos Hombres 8-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Thunder Chief 8-1 4th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 9 with 3-11 with 1-3-4-5-6-11 with All (1x2x6x9 = 108 x .10 = $10.80)

5th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Free Entry 6-1: SW sib Thunders Dove was sharp 2yo.. 4th
Best Value: #7 Northern Hammer 15-1: Working well under radar; Tote bonus.. 10th
Next Best: #3 Uncle Mo 3-1: Repole/Pletcher.. Yawn.. WON ($3.80)
Super Add: #1 Research Report 4-1: Debut outfit but tough post.. 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 6-7
3: 4-5-10
4: 3-9-11
5: 1-3-4-7

2x3x3x4 = $72

6th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Another opportunity to swing for the fences..

Best Value: #2 Neversaywhen 12-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Fourseventeen 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Chingachgook 9-5 3rd
Super Add: #7 Felice Di Notte 15-1 7th

7th: OC/C, 3+, 9.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Fascinating near marathon on the Mellon Course with many 'usual suspects' for this kind of event (Mott, Clement, et al..), and many other enticing price candidates..

Best Value: #2 Insider Tip 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 More Than Willing 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #11 En Fuego 5-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Rescue Squad 8-1 6th

8th: 22nd Ballston Spa (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

No Phola or Maram for me, thanks; Far too many more eligible missys at better prices in here..

Most Likely: #8 Cherokee Queen 6-1: Leparoux back after botched MTH start.. 9th
Best Value: #2 Danzon 20-1: What's not to like at that number? 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Miss Keller 7-2: Picture of consistency.. 3rd
Super Add: #10 Meking Melody 6-1: Came back a different mare at 5.. 10th

<$100 P4 Play:

5: 1-3-4-7
6: 2-5
7: 2-4-9-11
8: 1-2-8

4x2x3x4 = $96

9th: 8th Victory Ride (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Beyondallboudarys 4-1: Shows steady growth under Amoss.. 3rd
Next Best: #3 Rapport 3-1: Speed of the speed? Garcia owns both her wins.. WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #4 Sister Dawn 6-1: Ready to explode forward in first dirt try? 7th
Super Add: #9 Katy Now 7-2: Cuts back while reuniting with Velazquez.. 4th

10th: 32nd Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Warbling 4-1: Compromised chances in HonMiss start.. 2nd
Best Value: #6 Pretty Prolific 12-1: 2nd start with McPeek who doffs hood (31%).. 7th
Next Best: #1 Rightly So 6-1: Seriously speedy T. Dutrow/Zayat guns from rails.. WON ($11.40)
Super Add: #8 First Passage 15-1: Problematic in/out type has punchers' chance.. 5th

11th: 26th King's Bishop (G1), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Hard to believe that Discreetly Mine's enormous Amsterdam effort won't cause a regression here. May still have enough to best rivals, but worth taking slight cautionary position against..

Best Value: #6 Bank Merger 8-1: Spotted field lengths and rallied.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Discreetly Mine 6-5: Respect, but don't fear.. WON ($4.10)
Exotics Use: #2 Hurricane Ike 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Latigo Shore 20-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (4-6) Paid $14.90
$1 Trifecta (4-6-1) Paid $138.00
$1 Superfecta (4-6-1-2) Paid $563.50

12th: 141st Travers S. (G1), 3yo, 10f (DD, Travers-Per. Ensign Double, Super)

Cannot recall a Travers more compelling from standpoint of openess. Plethora of options and mutuels to choose from when constructing plays, and no inclusion or exclusion would be questioned. Appears an honest pace will develop at the least, and runners inclined for mid-pack/stalk and finish trips make the most sense to me. Afleet Express, Friend or Foe and Trappe Shot flashed most upside of late-developing sophs, and are the core of my approach here with the Jerkens trainee most likely to run biggest race..

Most Likely: #7 AFLEET EXPRESS 6-1 WON ($16.00)
Best Value: #9 Friend or Foe 15-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Trappe Shot 4-1 9th
Super Add: #8 Fly Down 8-1 2nd

.10 SUPER PLAY: 7 with 2-3-8-9-10 with 2-3-8-9-10 with ALL (1x5x4x8 = 160 x .10 = $16.00)

<$100 P4 Play:

9: 3-4-7-9
10: All
11: 2-4-6
12: 7

4x8x3x1 = $96 $1 Pick 4 (3-1-4-7) Paid $422.50

13th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Pretty Cozzy 9-2 WON ($8.90)
Best Value: #9 Moonlight Beauty 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Max's Runner 4-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Ben's Boots 9-2 3rd

Good luck!
Steve