Derby Trail Forums - 8/12: Saratoga (Day 18-$41k C/O)

Wednesday was one of those curious afternoons when the P6 went un-hit despite no ridiculous winners popping up during the sequence. Although winners weren't impossible to identify, it was a day where supporting players like Mike Luzzi, Channing Hill, Leo O'Brien, Mike Micelli, Jimmy Ryerson and ice cold Jose Lezcano all figured in the sextet decisions. The result was a $41k carryover into Thursday's quirky card that may see rain somewhere along the line. My own play was sloppy Wednesday with poor P4 execution but a couple of minor exotic hits that took the edge off losses. My fourth race opinion was the highlight of the afternoon, as keying off Best Value top choice By M K with the rest of the tabs swept the multi-horse mutuels. The Hennig trainee (11-2) fell short of 4th choice Julies Ina Frenzy (7-1), but the exacta ($57.75), triple ($120.00) and super ($816.00) were nice nice returns in the 11 horse field. The missed opportunity of the day came in the 2nd race where Strategic Move (First time Klesaris) went off at 7-1 after failing to appeal at the 3-1 ML. Hope you did OK!

Tough series today with brutally tough early P4 skein that includes a pair of Maiden affairs and slippery starter allowance. Thanks go out to DRF's Brad Free who joined me Wednesday on ATR to preview the big DMR carryover and provided a road map to key horses to help you snare half of the races. Free offered up single suggestions with $11.60 Stroppy (his Best Bet) in Leg A and Goggles McCoy in Leg E, as well as $8 Sky Chant as the top pick in the D leg. You needed to include the 7-2 Sadler entry (Leg B) and 2nd choice Mr. Gennaro (nightcap) to Brad's thoughts to collect the $16k+ that came back!

SARATOGA RACE COURSE

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/C, 4+, 16.5f-National Fences (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Parker's Project 8-1 2nd
Most Likely: #6 Hidden Trail 3-1 7th
Next Best: #1 All Together 4-1 8th
Super Add: #3 Grantor 12-1 3rd

2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Inflation Hedge 3-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Valiant Passion 15-1 WON ($63.00)
Next Best: #3 Town Flirt 4-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Mean Reversion 15-1 4th

3rd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)

Bizarrely, 3 Dance With Ravens fillies, from KY, MD and PA yet, debut here.. NOTE scratch of 1 (POE)..

Most Likely: #9 Smokehouse 7-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #3 Dopke Gal 10-1 4th
Next Best: #1a Saratogaatseventy 5-2 8th
Exotics Use: #5 Point Gammon 4-1 7th

4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Frequently hard to judge giveaway horses like 7-5 Sette E Mezzo..

Best Value: #3 Hangingbyathread 8-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Codeword SCRATCHED
Exotics Use: #9 Sette E Mezzo 7-5 WON ($4.00)
Super Add: #5 Fagedaboutit Sal 8-1 2nd

5th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$41k Carryover Starts Here..

Most Likely: #2 Numb Lips 6-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Star of New York 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Heritage Hall 10-1 WON ($20.20)
Super Add: #8 Harmonizer 9-2 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-5-7
3: 3-9
4: 3-5-9
5: 2-8-9-10

3x2x3x4 = $72 $1 Pick 4 (7-9-9-10) Paid $1,971.50

6th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Confusing bunch that seem impossible to separate..

Best Value: #1 Cat Be Nimble 10-1 8th
Next Best: #4 The West Rim 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Yan Yan 12-1 7th
Super Add: #7 National Gallery 8-1 6th

7th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 SILENT PIPE 10-1 5th
Next Best: #9 King Andrew 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Brilliant Son 3-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Miner Bird 12-1 9th

8th: Statue of Liberty-NY, 3yo-F, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 In Te Domine 2-1 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #8 Loyal Shadow 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 In Your Dreams 5-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Raffie's Rose 10-1 3rd

9th: CLM, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

3-1 ML fave Bridge to Nowhere isn't any more likely than the next 4-5 choices..

Most Likely: #7 Always On The Move 5-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Fiery Rebel 15-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Great Crusade 7-2 WON ($7.00)
Super Add: #3 Bridge to Nowhere 3-1 3rd

10th: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #2 Precision Farming 5-1 WON ($14.40)
Next Best: #9 Lights Out Lisa 9-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Kyriana 3-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Girl Bar 7-2 5th

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 2-9
6: 1-4-6-7-10
7: 10
8: 4-8
9: 7
10: 2-9-10

2x5x1x2x1x3 = 60 x $2 = $120

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 9-10
8: 1-4-8
9: 3-5-7-11
10: 2-9-10

2x3x4x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve