The much maligned 3yo male division...
 

Didn't exactly take a step forward in terms of the 3 stakes we saw this weekend.

* The Jim Dandy was a virtual replay of a rapidly run N2X alw race at Delaware Park from a month ago. The winner, A Little Warm had clearly the fields highest last out Beyer of 105 and 15/1 2nd place finisher Miner's Reserve had clearly the fields second highest last out fig. Both horses will have serious trouble finding an extra furlong.

* The Curlin stakes was won in a 9 length romp by Winslow Homer. He's promising right? Ah, no! Not so, judging by the fact that his final time was 1.55 seconds slower than Malibu Prayer ran in the Ruffian 30 minutes later. Malibu Prayer's only prior attempt in a Grade 1 stakes race was a 2nd place finish in the Mother Goose .. a mere 19.25 lengths behind Rachel Alexandra.

* The Haskell was won by Lookin at Lucky in a 4 length romp. Has he finally developed into being a super freak? Judging by the fact that he ran an identical final time to the unspectacular older male Omniscient on the parallel time charts .. it's clear that the answer is a strong no.

Super Saver was off the board in the Haskell - and after early season defeats to Odyseses and Line of David - and a post Derby victory beatdown in the Preakness and Haskell - it's now starting to look like another Calvin Borel ridden Kentucky Derby winner may see their only 3yo win on the season come in the Kentucky Derby itself for the 2nd year in a row.

Here's looking to next weeks West Virgina Derby for a ray of hope. Concord Point's win in the Iowa Derby was a great performance - but it's pretty disconcerting how much Baffert seems to think that race has taken out of him.

What do you think of Paddy O'Prado?

I wonder with his decent efforts on two other surfaces (ie Blue Grass and Kentucky Derby), if he could build up enough of a turf resume to earn the Eclipse.

Barring Euro imports, it's not a stretch to think he can take down the Secretariat and Jamaica, with perhaps another late season 3yo Gr1 in the Hollywood Derby.

Yes, obviously this 2010 3 yr old crop stinks, we all know this. The only horse that I was interested in prior the derby that I haven't come to a conclusion with is Conveyance. When he returns, I think he has some ability.

I think Lookin At Lucky is a very strong favorite to win the division vote. I would be surprised if he doesn't.

Paddy O Prado would probably have to win the Breeders Cup Turf - and that's almost certainly not going to happen. He still doesn't have a dirt win or a Grade 1 win.

I am interested in seeing how much Trickmeister moves up under Dutrow in the WV Derby. It won't take much to be competitive with this class.

As magic as Dutrow is with first time in his barn types ... this one is coming from Larry Jones/Cindy Jones ... it won't be easy to move him up from that outfit.

Watch Super Saver go and win the BCC.

Of course, if Zenyatta is there....

That's no joke. If they are both in the race at CD....and both have their usual jocks....I'd actually be a little shocked if Zenyatta did manage to finish ahead of Super Saver.

LOL this is 2 comedy. SS sucks. I dont even think he is a Churchill horse as much as he is a slop horse, but even with the slop he is still not fast he just got lucky. I said it before, he will never win again. I said this after the Preakness and nothing yesterday makes me think any different. Going 10f at Churchill with a decent pace, Zenyatta is almost a lock to finish 1-2-3.

Your Zenyatta, L@L, Quality Road trifecta isn't going to pay much in the Classic, but thanks for saving me the time on handicapping.

That triple is LOCK CITY.

Two of them are highly unlikely to make it.

Right now I'd say the five most likely winners of the BCC are, in no particular order:

QR, Z, LAL, SS and someone yet to be determined.

I've been pretty vocal about my dislike of SS as a good horse, but he does seem to like CD, and none of those other three have done anything of note at CD.

Oh, I almost forgot to apologize to CSC for mentioning the Z word here.

I don't see how Super Saver is a more likely winner of the Classic than Blame.

NT

IC, SS WILL NEVER WIN ANOTHER GRADED STAKES. Maybe me saying another race is crazy, because I am sure they can find an allowance or VERY SOFT OVERNIGHT, where he can win and then they will say he has his confidence back. I doubt hes a horse for course, as much as he is an opportunistic plodding POS horse. He beat no one in the 2yr old race, and like I said the day after the Derby show me where he ran? He tripped out, and got lucky vs a bad group. The other major contenders had issues/trips... Making him, once again, an opportunisitc plodding POS.

Yeah, I suppose Blame should be on the list. I just don't think he's as good as everyone else does.

I feel chalky adding Blame there too.

As for RHT, I mostly agree with you, but I think it's foolish to say he's not fond of CD.

You may have misunderstood. I never said I thought Super Saver was going to win the BCC. I just said he would finish in front of Zenyatta. I think he is a pretty unlikely winner.

The biggest question for me about the 3yos this year is whether Looking at Lucky would have won the TC if they hadn't changed the way they do the draw for the Derby.
With a different post in the Derby, he might have waltzed to a pretty easy TC given the lack of top-quality in the division and the absolute trash that was waiting to face him in the Belmont.

I don't know if LAL would have won the Derby in the slop regardless of where he drew, but he is clearly the best 3yo out there now.

Kind of like Super Saver, where I dont believe he is a horse for Churchill, I just think he got lucky twice. Im not sure Lucky cant handle slop. Derby is a 20 horse field that you will face once in your life, he drew the rail and it simply was not his day. I would not be quick to toss Lucky if he ever was forced to run on a sloppy track again, I think it would be irresponsible, and just quick and not really good handicapping.

..$21 for a buck