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-   -   How many A's,B's,C's and X's you guys have? (http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=37055)

wac 07-08-2010 08:12 PM

How many A's,B's,C's and X's you guys have?
 
So say that you have a race with 12 horses in it. How many A B C X horses do you guys have? i am trying to get a little bit better at making pk3 and pk4 tickets and just can't seem to cut my tix down to reasonable amounts. Its frustrating b/c i get done and i have 3 a's 4b's 2c's and 3x's. Making those tix are just too expensive. answers?

also what do you do when the horse you know is going to be the favorite winds up being a legit A do you always put the fav as an A even though you know its going to hurt the value?

Finally lets say you put 100 bucks into a pk 4 ticket how much do you have to win to think it was a good bet? i remember reading Crist's exotic book and on BC day he spent like 10,000 and profited 2,000. What say the board?

If you guys think these questions are stupid im sorry but they have been driving me crazy my entirly mediocre CD meet. Thanks

RockHardTen1985 07-08-2010 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wac (Post 666762)
So say that you have a race with 12 horses in it. How many A B C X horses do you guys have? i am trying to get a little bit better at making pk3 and pk4 tickets and just can't seem to cut my tix down to reasonable amounts. Its frustrating b/c i get done and i have 3 a's 4b's 2c's and 3x's. Making those tix are just too expensive. answers?

also what do you do when the horse you know is going to be the favorite winds up being a legit A do you always put the fav as an A even though you know its going to hurt the value?

Finally lets say you put 100 bucks into a pk 4 ticket how much do you have to win to think it was a good bet? i remember reading Crist's exotic book and on BC day he spent like 10,000 and profited 2,000. What say the board?

If you guys think these questions are stupid im sorry but they have been driving me crazy my entirly mediocre CD meet. Thanks

Pick a race, and copy it here... It will make this a lot easier. Something tomorrow, Ill handicap it and break it down to A B C X.

RockHardTen1985 07-08-2010 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wac (Post 666762)
So say that you have a race with 12 horses in it. How many A B C X horses do you guys have? i am trying to get a little bit better at making pk3 and pk4 tickets and just can't seem to cut my tix down to reasonable amounts. Its frustrating b/c i get done and i have 3 a's 4b's 2c's and 3x's. Making those tix are just too expensive. answers?

also what do you do when the horse you know is going to be the favorite winds up being a legit A do you always put the fav as an A even though you know its going to hurt the value?

Finally lets say you put 100 bucks into a pk 4 ticket how much do you have to win to think it was a good bet? i remember reading Crist's exotic book and on BC day he spent like 10,000 and profited 2,000. What say the board?

If you guys think these questions are stupid im sorry but they have been driving me crazy my entirly mediocre CD meet. Thanks


I would rather put $100 into a pick 3 sequence, I used to be pick 4 crazy, but I have totally changed up now.
I would much rather be able to go

1-1-1 $20

1-2-2 $5

2-2-2 $3

and so on, and lean and really try to crush it... Some of my biggest hits have been chalky pick 3's, maybe a $120 pick 3 for $2, but Im getting it 10-15 times.

Dahoss 07-08-2010 08:16 PM

Unless you have an unlimited bankroll, if you handicap a race with 12 horses and think 9 have a shot to win....avoid the race.

I would read Crist's book again.

johnny pinwheel 07-08-2010 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss (Post 666769)
Unless you have an unlimited bankroll, if you handicap a race with 12 horses and think 9 have a shot to win....avoid the race.

I would read Crist's book again.

i agree. i kind of stick to pick 3's. you need to have a ticket with one single or at least narrow it down to 2 horses. why would you want to bet 10,000 to win 2,000 on picks? you should be trying to bet 200 to win 10,000. i've hit the biggest ones by playing a single, a couple in another leg and the all button in the leg with a heavy favorite thats vulnerable. that formula has made me big scores on the biggest days when the pool is piled on one horse that loses.

ateamstupid 07-08-2010 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel (Post 666815)
i agree. i kind of stick to pick 3's. you need to have a ticket with one single or at least narrow it down to 2 horses. why would you want to bet 10,000 to win 2,000 on picks? you should be trying to bet 200 to win 10,000. i've hit the biggest ones by playing a single, a couple in another leg and the all button in the leg with a heavy favorite thats vulnerable. that formula has made me big scores on the biggest days when the pool is piled on one horse that loses.

I'm going to take a wild guess and say that Crist wasn't "trying" to bet 10k to win 2k.

Travis Stone 07-08-2010 11:16 PM

ABCing a race is a tool for rolling your opinion(s) into a ticket. If you have too many horses labeled, it's more likely your handicapping is weak or sloppy than the system cheating you. It's not a "secret weapon" for winning... it's merely a tool to help build affordable, yet effective, wagers.

Dahoss 07-08-2010 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel (Post 666815)
i agree. i kind of stick to pick 3's. you need to have a ticket with one single or at least narrow it down to 2 horses. why would you want to bet 10,000 to win 2,000 on picks? you should be trying to bet 200 to win 10,000. i've hit the biggest ones by playing a single, a couple in another leg and the all button in the leg with a heavy favorite thats vulnerable. that formula has made me big scores on the biggest days when the pool is piled on one horse that loses.

I think you really can't have a set number of horses you want to use beforehand. By doing that you are already limiting yourself. In a 12 horse field there could be one stand out. Or, in a 5 horse field they all could have a legitimate shot at winning.

RockHardTen1985 07-08-2010 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 666846)
ABCing a race is a tool for rolling your opinion(s) into a ticket. If you have too many horses labeled, it's more likely your handicapping is weak or sloppy than the system cheating you. It's not a "secret weapon" for winning... it's merely a tool to help build affordable, yet effective, wagers.

:tro:

westcoastinvader 07-09-2010 02:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone (Post 666846)
ABCing a race is a tool for rolling your opinion(s) into a ticket. If you have too many horses labeled, it's more likely your handicapping is weak or sloppy than the system cheating you. It's not a "secret weapon" for winning... it's merely a tool to help build affordable, yet effective, wagers.



Tangential at best, but do many people here consistently win betting Pick 3's or Pick 4's?

Not bragging, but I win more often than I lose. Not big wins relative my wagers always, but definitely walking out with more than I walked in with.

I'm almost exclusively Win, exacta, quinella in my wagers.

With an occasional backup Place or trifecta in the mix.

(yes, I sometimes support betting "Place" in my given wagering situation)


I almost never chase the Pick 3's or Pick 4's. Maybe less than five times in my life.

I tend to circle until I see races I think I see a good angle and feel sure about.

I increase and reduce wagers by the race if I'm at the track and playing more than a few races a day.

ateamstupid 07-09-2010 02:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by westcoastinvader (Post 666876)
Tangential at best, but do many people here consistently win betting Pick 3's or Pick 4's?

Yes.

joeydb 07-09-2010 06:39 AM

I really hope the guys at DRF release TicketMaker on the android platform in addition to the iPhone version they currently have.

Port Conway Lane 07-09-2010 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wac (Post 666762)
So say that you have a race with 12 horses in it. How many A B C X horses do you guys have? i am trying to get a little bit better at making pk3 and pk4 tickets and just can't seem to cut my tix down to reasonable amounts. Its frustrating b/c i get done and i have 3 a's 4b's 2c's and 3x's. Making those tix are just too expensive. answers?

also what do you do when the horse you know is going to be the favorite winds up being a legit A do you always put the fav as an A even though you know its going to hurt the value?

Finally lets say you put 100 bucks into a pk 4 ticket how much do you have to win to think it was a good bet? i remember reading Crist's exotic book and on BC day he spent like 10,000 and profited 2,000. What say the board?

If you guys think these questions are stupid im sorry but they have been driving me crazy my entirly mediocre CD meet. Thanks

I think you should start by calculating how much you will win if you were to take the $100 and divide it into daily double wagers in the first two legs.

As an example if I had three horses in the first leg at odds of
even money,3-1, and 9-1, and the will pays for my selections in the second leg are:

1-1...$12...$24...$36
3-1...$48...$60...$90
9-1,,$160..$180..$280

The payoffs in red are overlays relative to the win odds of the horses in the first race. I would rather have multiple daily doubles on those combinations and invest the remainder of the "underlaid" combinations into the pick 4. The investment cost will be the same and I will be getting maximum value on the "bird in the hand" daily double payoffs.

SilverRP 07-09-2010 08:01 AM

I too am interested in seeing how some of you do the A,B,C,X with a large field. Here is tomorrows 10th from Calder. 13 horse field.

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdf...lin_201260.pdf

Nevermind, link won't work.

robfla 07-09-2010 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SilverRP (Post 666922)



Nevermind, link won't work.

try this one:


http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promo...tofspeed10.pdf


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