Does anyone have updated Derby odds?
 

I'm curious to see what numbers sportsbooks will put on the futures now with Esky out of the mix?

Crist had a chart on his blog that shows the effect Esky's absence will have on the odds of the remaining horses. . . only problem is that a bunch of them are in as "all others."

My guess at odds (16% takeout):
HORSE ODDS
Lookin at Lucky 7/2
Sidney's Candy 7/1
Super Saver 10/1
Devil May Care 11/1
Awesome Act 12/1
Dublin 14/1
Ice Box 15/1
Endorsement 16/1
Noble's Promise 18/1
Mission Impazible 20/1
Line of David 22/1
American Lion 25/1
Paddy O'Prado 25/1
Conveyance 30/1
Stately Victor 30/1
Jackson Bend 30/1
Discreetly Mine 40/1
Backtalk 45/1
Dean's Kitten 50/1
Homeboykris 50/1

I think that's about right, but if he's 6-1 instead of 7-1, a horse like Dublin goes from 14-1 to 18-1 or Ice Box from 15-1 to 20-1.

I think the sportsbooks are waiting for the dust to settle before putting up futures. They may wait until entries are drawn.

Here are the odds you get if you just use the last future odds on the horses that are now likely to be entered, and readjust those odds to make a 16% line.

I listed those odds to the right of Philski's, for comparison:

HORSE Phil's Line, Adj Line from better of TheGreek and 5Dimes
Lookin at Lucky 7/2, 7-2
Sidney's Candy 7/1, 6-1
Super Saver 10/1, 16-1
Devil May Care 11/1, 11-1*
Awesome Act 12/1, 13-1
Dublin 14/1, 14-1
Ice Box 15/1, 17-1
Endorsement 16/1, 16-1
Noble's Promise 18/1, 25-1
Mission Impazible 20/1, 25-1
Line of David 22/1, 30-1
American Lion 25/1, 16-1
Paddy O'Prado 25/1, 25-1
Conveyance 30/1, 25-1
Stately Victor 30/1, 25-1
Jackson Bend 30/1, 20-1
Discreetly Mine 40/1, 40-1
Backtalk 45/1, 40-1
Dean's Kitten 50/1, 45-1
Homeboykris 50/1, 40-1[/quote]

*No one had odds for Devil May Care, so I used Phil's 11-1.

The two lines are pretty close except on Noble's Promise, Super Saver, Line of David, American Lion, and Jackson Bend. The discrepancy on Noble's Promise is due to the fact that last week it looked unlikely he would run. So the books offered higher odds to reflect that uncertainty.

--Dunbar

Wrong. TheGreek is back up today. 5dimes' Derby odds are still down, but at least you can bet on English darts there. :rolleyes:


The current odds at TheGreek are now listed as the 3rd set below.


HORSE, Phil's Line, Old Adj Line, Current odds at TheGreek

Lookin at Lucky 7/2, 7-2, 3.65
Sidney's Candy 7/1, 6-1, 6.05
Super Saver 10/1, 16-1, 16.15
Devil May Care 11/1, 11-1*, 16.15
Awesome Act 12/1, 13-1, 10.15
Dublin 14/1, 14-1, 18.15
Ice Box 15/1, 17-1, 18.15
Endorsement 16/1, 16-1, 14.15
Noble's Promise 18/1, 25-1, 20.50
Mission Impazible 20/1, 25-1, 22.50
Line of David 22/1, 30-1, 45.50
American Lion 25/1, 16-1, 22.50
Paddy O'Prado 25/1, 25-1, 28.50
Conveyance 30/1, 25-1, 28.50
Stately Victor 30/1, 25-1, 28.50
Jackson Bend 30/1, 20-1, 18.15
Discreetly Mine 40/1, 40-1, 52.50
Backtalk 45/1, 40-1, 60.50
Dean's Kitten 50/1, 45-1, 45.50
Homeboykris 50/1, 40-1, 60.50

Those odds make a 10% takeout line. That probably won't last long. What usually happens is TheGreek lowers odds after getting some action, but they don't raise odds on other horses to compensate.

The biggest difference between these current odds and last week's odds (as well as Philski's line) is Line of David at 45.50-1.

--Dunbar[/quote]

[/quote]

Good stuff, Dunbar. Really surprised at Super Saver at 16-1. Don't think he'll be that high on Derby Day- especially with Borel named.

Interactif back from the shed.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...until-draw-day

5 Dimes was late to react Sunday morning. I got some Lucky just because I knew I'd get 30% less this week.

Nice. You could probably lock in a profit on the EhorseX-type boards.

--Dunbar

Wrong again, you idiot! (I'm trying to start a flame war with myself.)

Last night, Lookin At Lucky dropped from 3.65-1 to 3.15-1 at TheGreek. But now Lookin At Lucky is up to 3.85-1. The only other change is Conveyance has dropped from 28.5-1 to 20.5-1.

The effective takeout on TheGreek's current line is 10.5%. (But TheGreek hasn't adjusted for Endorsement being out and Make Music For Me being in.)


Pinnacle has odds up for the Oaks:

1 It's Tea Time +1200
2 Jody Slew +4000
3 Quiet Temper +1200
4 Age Of Humor +4000
5 Blind Luck +120
6 Beautician +2000
7 Crisp +1000
8 Tidal Pool +1200
9 Bella Diamante +5000
10 Champagne D'Oro +4000
11 Evening Jewel +1000
12 Ailalea +2500
13 Amen Hallelujah +800
14 Joanie's Catch +4000

Those odds equate to a 15.4% takeout.

Pinnacle will probably put up its Derby line soon after the field is set.

--Dunbar

If only we could use Pinnacle

Yep. Thank you, Senator Kyl.

--Dunbar

What a disgrace, they allow hokey lotteries everywhere and you can't place a ****ing bet.

TheGreek now has odds up for the Oaks, including +165 for Blind Luck. For the fillies with better odds at TheGreek, I've put them in bold above. Using the best from Pinny and TheGreek, you'd have a line with 4.6% takeout.

--Dunbar

TheGreek has its Derby odds back up, and they clearly take post position into account:

501 Lookin At Lucky +425
502 Ice Box +1415
503 Nobles Promise +1415
504 Super Saver +1415
505 Line of David +4050
506 Stately Victor +3550
507 American Lion +2550
508 Deans Kitten +6050
509 Make Music For Me +6050
510 Paddy OPrado +2550
511 Devil May Care +1415
512 Conveyance +1615
513 Jackson Bend +1615
514 Mission Impazible +1615
515 Discreetly Mine +4550
516 Awesome Act +925
517 Dublin +1615
518 Backtalk +6050
519 Homeboykris +4550
520 Sidneys Candy +785

Both LookinAtLucky and Sidney's Candy are significantly higher than before the draw.

--Dunbar

I'm sorry, but Homeboykris is a focking joke at 45/1.

Now 5Dimes, Bookmaker, and Pinnacle have odds up, too. Here are the best available from the 4 books:

Lookin At Lucky ** 4, 5Dimes, Bookmaker
Ice Box ** 16.15, TheGreek
Nobles Promise ** 15, Bookmaker
Super Saver ** 16, Bookmaker
Line of David ** 40, Pinny (38.5)
Stately Victor ** 40, Pinny (38.5)
American Lion ** 25, 5Dimes & Pinny
Deans Kitten ** 60.5, TheGreek
MakeMusic'Me ** 60.5, TheGreek
Paddy Oprado ** 25.5, TheGreek
Devil May Care 16.15, TheGreek
Conveyance ** 16.15, TheGreek
Jackson Bend ** 20, Bookmaker
MissionImpazible ** 17, Pinny (16.15)
Discreetly Mine ** 50, Pinny (45.5)
Awesome Act ** 11, Pinny, Bookmaker
Dublin ** 17, Pinny (16.15)
Backtalk ** 60.5, TheGreek
Homeboykris ** 50, Pinny (45.5)
Sidneys Candy ** 7.35, TheGreek

For horses with best odds only at Pinnacle, the number in parenthesis is the best odds elsewhere.

Using the best odds from the 4 books, the takeout is 6.6%.

--Dunbar

Quite a few changes, as of right now:

Ice Box has dropped from 16.15-1 to 12-1 (Greek)
Nobles Promise rose from 15-1 to 16-1 (Bookmaker)
Stately Victor dropped from 40-1 to 20-1 at Pinny, but Bookmaker has 32-1
American Lion is up slightly to 25.5 (Greek)
Make Music For Me rose from 60.5-1 to 66-1 (5Dimes)
Devil May Care is up from 16.15 to 18-1 (Bookmaker)
Jackson Bend rose from 20-1 to 22-1 (Bookmaker)
Mission Impazible is now available at 17-1 at Bookmaer in addition to Pinny
Awesome Act is still available at 11-1, but only at Bookmaker
HomeBoyCris is up from 50-1 to 55-1 (5Dimes)
Sidney's Candy is down from 7.35-1 to 7.05-1.

Here's the complete list

1 Lookin At Lucky ** 4, Bookmaker, 5Dimes, Pinny
2 Ice Box ** 12.15, Greek
3 Nobles Promise ** 16, Bookmaker
4 Super Saver ** 16, Bookmaker
5 Line of David ** 40, Pinny (38.15)
6 Stately Victor ** 32, Bookmaker
7 American Lion ** 25.5, Greek
8 Deans Kitten ** 60.5, Greek
9 Make Music for Me ** 66, 5Dimes
10 Paddy Oprado ** 25.5, Greek
11 Devil May Care 18, Bookmaker
12 Conveyance ** 16.15, Greek
13 Jackson Bend ** 22, Bookmaker
14 Mission Impazible ** 17, Pinny, Bookmaker
15 Discreetly Mine ** 50, Pinny (45.5)
16 Awesome Act ** 11, Bookmaker
17 Dublin ** 17, Pinny (16.15)
18 Backtalk ** 60.5, Greek
19 Homeboykris ** 55, 5Dimes
20 Sidneys Candy ** 7.05, Greek

The takeout has risen to 7.6%.


--Dunbar