What is the tie breaker on graded stakes earnings?
 

A coin flip?

Setsuko and A Little Warm both have exactly $180,000, and they both are getting closer to the line..

Almost. First they go with earnings in unrestricted stakes races. Then it's "by lot" so it basically is a glorified coin flip situation.

One of these can hit the board, the other may finish last.

In reading the condition book, it looks like horses tied on graded earnings would have the tie broken by lot. The unrestricted stakes earnings are only considered "should additional starters be needed to bring the field" up to 20.

I'm not quite clear on what that means. You wouldn't bother breaking a graded earnings tie if the field isn't up to 20. Both would get in.

If you had a situation where 21 entered and all had graded earnings, with the last two tied at number 20 on the graded earnings list, you draw by lot to break the tie.

If you had a situation where 21 horses entered but only 18 had graded earnings, you would use the earnings in non-graded races to determine the last two horses to make the race.

Quite so. The first one scares me and would have to be used on any "falling apart scenario" tickets, at a minimum.

This would all be for naught if another five or so horses don't bail and/or Setsuko can figure out a way to win the Lexington. I'm a fan though; A Little Warm, not so much.

It is quite a bit less than the five, although the Lex is still out there:

http://blog.timesunion.com/horseraci...he-derby/4208/

Ah. Thanks. Didn't occur to me that we'd be in a situation where 20+ might want in but some might have zero graded earnings. Could've sworn though that in past years they've explained it as unrestricted stakes breaks the graded earnings tie. Hmm.

Taken from Steve's list posted today. With Noble's Promise iffy and Aikenite on the fence, Setsuko would still need three defection to make the starting gate.

1 Lookin At Lucky $1,480,000
2 Noble's Promise $738,000 Questionable
3 Rule $645,000
4 Sidney's Candy $630,000
T-5 Eskendereya $600,000
T-5 Line of David $600,000
7 Mission Impazible $473,434
8 Ice Box $457,500
9 Stately Victor $450,000
10 Endorsement $400,000

11 Conveyance $386,000
12 American Lion $378,000
13 Dublin $373,208
14 Super Saver $363,832
15 Discreetly Mine $355,000
16 Dean’s Kitten $326,475
17 Interactif $292,950
18 Awesome Act $285,000
19 Paddy O'Prado $250,950
20 Homeboykris (g) $250,500
__________________________________________________ _

21 Uh Oh Bango $237,952
22 Jackson Bend $230,000
22 Backtalk $222,566
23 Aikenite $221,750
24 Make Music for Me $218,750
25 Setsuko $180,000
26 A Little Warm $180,000

What fence? Aikenite is O-U-T out.

So Setsuko and A Little Warm are tied at 24. And there are questions about Noble's Promise, Interactif and Uh-oh Bango:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/112119.html

But then you have the impact of the Lex to figure in, too.

Too messy to ponder right now. Tough choice for the connections of Setsuko.

Actually, according to this, it will have no impact, unless a new shooter (like a Setsuko) jumps in:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/112120.html

I don't know, is there enough earnings available in the Lexington to vault someone from way back into the top 20? I'm not so sure. Homeboykris is an eyesore, however.

Based on the projected field no horse can get enough earnings to get into the Derby.

The only late change could be if Contessa runs Eightyfiveinafifty (which I hope he opts against) in the Derby Trial and he wins. He'll then have 240k and would need one defection (which he'll likely already have) to get in the field.

NT

And, as Kasept mentioned earlier, Setsuko is apparently being considered for the Lexington as well.

That would undoubtedly be the funniest move this year. Sort of.

I wish he would stay home and run in the Withers. Eightyfiveinafifty v. Trappe Shot would be an interesting race.

I believe D'Funnybone is headed there and you'd have to think Anthony Dutrow would consider it for A Little Warm if the Derby is a no go (I know he previously said no Derby would mean straight to Preakness).

NT