3/6: AQU (P4's); GP (P4); OP (P4); SA (5th-11th); Magna 5
 

Santa Anita P6 double carryover pushed to near $1,800,000 Friday, and two major price horses narrowed winning plays down to just two of deserved $552,545. Ron Ellis started the upsets sending out Victor Espinoza on the Broads' Tiz a Knight at 29-1 to trip up the 3yo MSW in the 5th. In the nightcap, $106.80 FTS Dubai XYZ stunned for lesser known connections producing the half million dollar sextet and a $22,106 P4. That's why we play!

Panicky concerns over Big Cap Day at Santa Anita look to have been unfounded, and a great afternoon of racing is in the offing at Arcadia. Aqueduct's Gothem Day card is very playable, and Gulfstream's all turf P4 could be a producer. Oaklawn has the Azeri and Razorback as part of its' P4, and the Magna 5 is very challenging with another confusing Laurel stake as the predictably tough sequence starter. Should be a great day...


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


2nd: NY-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Game Token 7-2 WON
Next Best: #7 Tocco d'Oro 4-1 7th
Best Value: #1 Keltic Fighter 9-2 6th
Super Add: #10 S. Z. Madison 8-1 8th


3rd: 109th Cappy Capossela, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Liston 7-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Strapping Groom 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Golden Ghost 8-1 2nd


4th: 117th Toboggan (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Custom for Carlos 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 Elusive Warning 5-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Driven by Success 6-1 3rd


5th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 The Roundhouse 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #4 Precursor 10-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Goldsville 3-1 WON
Super Add: #7 Sawtooth Mountain 15-1 7th


<$50 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-5-7-10
3: 5
4: 1-2-3
5: 2-4-5

5x1x3x3 = $45


8th: NY-MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #13 Justtakemypicture 5-2 10th
Best Value: #9 Tapitdar 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Major Star 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Felice Di Notte 15-1 3rd


9th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 (POE) Temecula Creek 2-1 9th
Best Value: #6 Benlayla 10-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Hedge Fund 5-1 11th
Super Add: #4 Wollaston Bay 10-1 WON


10th: 58th Gotham (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

One decision to make here is how much you like or dislike the Whirlaway horses..

Best Value: #3 Nacho Friend (8-1): Clever Breen excels with comebackers, stretchouts.. 3rd
Most Likely: #4 Awesome Act (7-2): Being asked a lot; OK in Cup, bred for this.. WON
Next Best: #2 Yawanna Twist 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Turf Melody 8-1 4th

$1 Exacta $19.80
$1 Trifecta $110.00
$1 Superfecta $1,020.00


11th: NY-MSW, 3yo, 1m (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Tapped Out Bruno 3-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Spicy Steve 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 (POE) SCR
Super Add: #12 SCR


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 9-13
9: 2-4-5-6-9
10: 2-3-4
11: 2-3

2x5x3x2 = $60



GULFSTREAM PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: 23rd Herecomesthebride (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Fun betting race with some attractive prices getting on the grass for the first time (5/9) and Upperline making second lawn start..

Best Value: #5 Profiteroles 15-1 9th
Most Likely: #6 Upperline 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Dynazapper 6-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Apple Charlotte 10-1 2nd


8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Uncle Indy 3-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Custer 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Mean Sax 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Brother Nick 15-1 WON


9th: 24th Palm Beach (G3), 3yo, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Bim Bam 5-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Our Champion 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Dean's Kitten 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Cat Park 8-1 8th


10th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Alcomatch 3-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Systemic Risk 8-1 9th
Next Best: #10 Beau Choix 4-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Hurricane Day 6-1 4th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-5-6-7-9
8: 2-3-5
9: 2-3-6-9
10: 5-9

6x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72



OAKLAWN PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: 51st Razorback (G#), 4+, 8.5f (P4, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Gone Astray 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Win Willy 7-2 WON
Best Value: #1 Prom Shoes 8-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Jonesboro 5-1 5th


8th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #2 Fayoum 3-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Fifth Avenue South 12-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Pulpit's Secret 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Bird Empire 7-2 3rd


9th: 24th Azeri (G3), F&M-4+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Just Jenda 5-1 4th
Most Likely: #4 War Echo 3-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Freedom Star 6-1 WON
Super Add: #3 Spirit Seeker 8-1 8th


10th: CLM, 4+, 1m (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Alpha Capo 3-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Gold Niner 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Pacific Star 12-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Lumberjack Cat 9-2 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-8
8: 1-2-8
9: 1-3-4-6
10: 3-6

3x3x4x2 = $72



SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


5th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Patriotic Soldier 6-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Fantasy Free 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 E Z's Gentleman 7-2 WON
Super Add: #6 Bad Boy 4-1 4th


6th: 9th Pasadena, 3yo, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Macias 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #8 Lucky Rave 12-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Alpharabi 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Get A Grip 8-1 7th


7th: 10th Sham (G3), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Nextdoorneighbor 3-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Kettle River 6-1 8th
Next Best: #2 The Program 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Alphie's Bet 6-1 WON


8th: 71st Santa Anita Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Blind Luck 1-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 All Due Respect 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Cozi Rosie 5-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Crisp 6-1 WON


9th: 10th Kilroe Mile H. (G1), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Ever a Friend 3-1 6th
Best Value: #3 Awesome Gem 10-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Fluke 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Acclamation 20-1 9th


10th: 73rd Santa Anita H. (G1), 4+, 10f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #13 Misremembered 8-1 WON
Best Value: #5 Eagle Poise 20-1 13th
Next Best: #14 Jeranimo 8-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Pick Six 20-1 10th


11th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Oy vey.. What a way to end a day like this! NOTE: $68k Hi-5 C/O!

Most Likely: #10 Hovig 5-2 13th9th
Best Value: #13 Objectified 20-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Crash Landing 4-1 WON
Super Add: #14 The Final Roar 9-2
High 5 Play: #5 Colorful Dancer 20-1 12th


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 4-5-7
9: 3-4-5-9
10: 5-13-14
11: 10-13

3x4x3x2 = $72



MAGNA 5


PRE-SCRATCHES


LEG A-LRL 10th: Wide Country, 3yo-F, 7f (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Gator Prowl 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 You Need Me 12-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Judge Sonya 5-2 5th
Super Add: #3 That's How I Roll 6-1 2nd


LEG B-SA 5th: OC/N1X, 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Patriotic Soldier 6-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Fantasy Free 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 E Z's Gentleman 7-2 WON
Super Add: #6 Bad Boy 4-1 4th


LEG C-GP 9th: 24th Palm Beach (G3), 3yo, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Bim Bam 5-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Our Champion 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Dean's Kitten 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Cat Park 8-1 8th


LEG D-GG 5th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Highway Bandit 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #9 Nisus 9-2 8th
Next Best: #7 Czechmyhart 5-2 4th
Super Add: #8 Gear Shift 6-1 7th


LEG E-GP 10th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Alcomatch 3-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Systemic Risk 8-1
Next Best: #10 Beau Choix 4-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Hurricane Day 6-1 4th


<$150 or <$75 Magna 5 Play:

A: 1-2-5 (3-6-8)
B: 1-4-6-10
C: 2-3-6
D: 9-10
E: 9

3x4x3x2x1 = $72
6x4x3x2x1 = $144


Good luck!
Steve

Steve O....Don't miss the boat at Oaklawn in the Azeri.
#3 Spirit Seeker..8-1ml comes east looking for Dirt for Hollendorfer.
ala Hysterical Lady.

Best bet of the day.

Nevermind...You have her marked...didn't see her at first glance.

Steve:

Looks good. I especially like your SA selects.....


Good Luck....

steve

in the 10th at aqueduct turf melody is the 8
in the 10th at santa anita jeranimo is the 14

Fixed! Thx Tony! G/L today...

Should be a great afternoon Keith... G/L!

V/J,

Can't disagree. I'm using all 4. G/L today!

11th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Oy vey.. What a way to end a day like this!

Most Likely: #10 Hovig 5-2
Best Value: #13 Objectified 20-1
Next Best: #1 Crash Landing 4-1
Super Add: #14 The Final Roar 9-2
High 5 Play: #5 Colorful Dancer 20-1


Don't kvetch! There's a 68k Super High 5 Carry.

IMPORTANT CHANGES...

WESTOVER WILDCAT a SCR...

And note 13 Justtakemypicture runs in the 8th and #12 Raffinator runs in the 11th..


AQU SCR/CHG'S


1

4 Tactical Assault Early
5 Idaho Joe Early


3

1 Westover Wildcat Early NO SHOW or TRIFECTA
6 Confidence Crisis Early


6

1 Heavenly Pursuit Early
2 Slither Early
8 Voyager Early
9 Enniskillen Early


7

12 Mr. Petersson Early


8

2 Centripital Early


11

6 Abilio Early
13 Chingachgook Early

GP SCR/CHG'S


Race: 7 Changes Time Posted
#10 Tesoro de Amor Scratched - Main-Track-Only 10:41 AM ET

Race: 8 Changes Time Posted
#1 Lime Rickey No longer a Coupled Entry 10:41 AM ET
#1A Slambino Scratched - Also-Eligible 10:41 AM ET
#13 Not for Money Scratched - Also-Eligible 10:41 AM ET
#14 Black Scorpion Scratched - Re-entered 10:41 AM ET
#15 Royal Jabar Scratched - Also-Eligible 10:41 AM ET

Race: 10 Changes Time Posted
#1 Smart Sky Scratched - Trainer 10:41 AM ET
#13 Bears Finish Line Scratched - Main-Track-Only 10:41 AM ET
#14 Christmas for Liam Scratched - Main-Track-Only 10:41 AM ET
#16 Fu San Scratched - Also-Eligible 10:41 AM ET

I like Systemic Risk in the GP10th a bit today

OP-No Late P4 SCR/CHG's


SA SCR/CHG'S

Race 8 #1 Sister Dawn
Race 9 #11 Tuscan Evening (IRE), #1 Red Sun
Race 11 #8 Indy Ride

Magna 5
 

Leg a
5 - Gator Prowl
2 - Judge Sonya
8 - Jim's Prospect

Leg b
10 - Fantasy Free
1 - Patriotic Soldier
Note - Don't care for EZ Gentleman, whose last win came in what appeared to be at the time, the key maiden race at Del Mar back in 2007 over Colonel John and Overextended. Gaps between Afleet Rulers works have been widening, despite firing bullets. Career claimer Bad Boy is as game as they come, but feel this group is much tougher than anything he's seen.

Leg c (case can be made for most in here)
4 - Asphalt
2 - Dean's Kitten
7 - Center Divider
6 - Bim Bam

Leg d
9 - Nisus
10 - Highway Bandit

Leg e
9 - Alcomatch

$48 for $1

Good luck!

Tremendous NTR performance by Bold Start at TAM... Yikes. Exchanged messages with McPeek and Willie. A little surprisingly, ALW at KEE the next target as opposed to a more aggressive spot...

C.... Ack-ahhhh!

You can't stop him... You can only hope to contain him! 3/1-1-1 today.

2008 Capossela winner Wollaston Bay wins for the first time in 2 years.

ran huge..congrats g-man

Congrats to Gary today, a win with Wollaston Bay at 6-1, solid run for second by Roma Di Notte at 18-1 and 3rd by Felice Di Notte, forget the price, but it was solid! (Was 25-1)

How about both stakes-entered Maidens breaking their cherry? Pretty kooky.

Remembered that Romans had Quiet Temper break her maiden in the stakes at Delta last December. Wanted to pull the trigger on Paddy today, but the way that turf was playing, didn't think she had the speed to do it.

As I reminded everyone this week, ATR listeners were clued into Alphie's Bet the previous Friday by HRTV's Kurt Hoover.

Barba in the zone.