Kentucky Derby pace will be very fast
 

With three impressive wins this weekend from (1) Discreetly Mine, wire-to-wire; (2) Conveyance, wire-to-wire; (3) Eskendereya, forwardly placed throughout the FOY and (4) Rule wire-to-wire last week in Tampa who thinks that any of these will be around at the finish the first Saturday in May?

Connemara looking very interesting if he can navigate a big field at Churchill.

let's see if they're at the start first.

So four horses who have moderate tactical speed in February might be in the gate, and that's enough to declare that the Derby pace will be very fast and thus we should throw out said horses? Got it.

its something not worth thinking about for weeks to come

isnt the derby pace generally very swift?? i mean 20 horses and 150k screaming people, things generally get quick early

Since we are forecasting the Derby pace this early, does anyone want to take a crack at forecasting the weather on Derby Day?

I'll take a crack. My hope: Partly cloudy 75

Long-term forecast says a 30 percent chance of precipitation. Let me quick check out the wet track Tomlinson numbers for the 300 plus horses nominated for the Triple Crown.

Coming on here and posting a statement like this,you are just asking to be ridiculed.

No forward thinkers here. Sad

I don't think it's a matter of that. I personally just think that it's a bit early to start talking about pace scenarios in a race where the horses are going pretty hot early anyway. Twenty horses and nobody wants to be six wide going into the first turn.
Sure there were some impressive performances this weekend, but do you honestly think that they are all going to make the gate? Hell, last years the favorite scratched the day of the race. Let's narrow the field down to about 30 and then maybe the debate could start. Just so much could happen from now till the first Saturday of May. For me personally, you can't debate a race when your not really sure who will be running in it.

But it's still a better topic than the possible weather forcast, I would plead guilty to not being a foward thinker about that. :zz:

Buck is excited about the Derby and threw out a thought. People start talking about Super Bowl matchups 6 games into the season. Geez people stop taking yourselves so seriously and thinking you need to be the arbitors and conscience of the game.

In case you forgot this is all supposed to be fun.

:)

Vic Stauffer = Voice of Reason :tro:

This game is fun, isn't it?

:rolleyes:

It's a lousy case for declaring that the Derby pace will be fast in February. What should we say? It's the phrasing of the post. Instead of "what kind of pace do you guys think the Derby will have?" which at least has a 2% chance of leading to an interesting discussion, it's "These four horses won close to the lead, therefore the Derby pace will be fast and these horses probably have no shot."

Sincerely,
Conscience of the Game

I wasn't cutting down Buck,I was merely pointing out what you did.

Tomlinson Ratings for the 23 horses in Pool One of the Derby Future Wager:

1. Aikenite - 253*
2. American Lion - 222
3. Buddy's Saint - 259
4. Concord Point - 224*
5. Conveyance - 219
6. Dave in Dixie - 291
7. Drosselmeyer - 349
8. Dryfly - 336*
9. Dublin - 276
10. Eskendereya - 336
11. Jackson Bend - 231
12. Lookin At Lucky - 309
13. Make Music for Me - 280
14. Maximus Ruler - 283
15. Noble's Promise - 259*
16. Ron the Greek - 306*
17. Rule - 248
18. Stay Put - 330
19. Super Saver - 362
20. Tiz Chrome - 210
21. Uptowncharlybrown - 226
22. Vale of York - 270
23. William's Kitten - 195

I think it will rain










somewhere

These figures don't matter

Those look like the distance instead of the wet track ratings anyways. . .